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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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VandyBrad
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Great words... [Re: bigpapi]
      #53349 - Thu Sep 01 2005 04:36 PM

I just received an email from my alumni association at Vanderbilt University. Chancellor Gordon Gee wrote the following words as part of this address to the Vanderbilt community in response to Katrina:

"As an institution, we are committed to helping, and also to enabling the members of our community to help to the extent they are able and needed. Our only option is to respond. No other option exists, or is even possible."

If those words don't sum it all up, I don't know what words can.

- "Our only option is to respond. No other option exists, or is even possible."

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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Takingforever
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land [Re: bigpapi]
      #53350 - Thu Sep 01 2005 04:36 PM

Saddest part is people are trying to blame this on someone..There is no one to blame this on. Five days a month time to prepare, opeopel would still be trying to blame this on someone.

how about we all forget trying to blame people and get out of this situation first? Hell even those in NO forgot about help and are going with good old chanting of who to blame...


And we aren't even done yet with this Season from hell 2. The next storm is going to cause panic like we never seen before.

TSFH and all it's subsequent incantations are the explicit rights of LI Phil

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 01 2005 04:56 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land [Re: Takingforever]
      #53356 - Thu Sep 01 2005 04:43 PM

I just checked the model runs on 92L...

WOW

GFDI brings it to a Category 4 in 4-5 days...about the time it's passing south of Cuba.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Right now Frame 1 is 92L, but I don't know how long that will stay.


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Rick on boat in Mobile
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my workmate [Re: Takingforever]
      #53358 - Thu Sep 01 2005 04:43 PM

just came in...he said they found Katrina. The roof had been blown off the house, and a tree went through it...

they are alive and fine....a mile from where the hurricane came in. wow


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Brad in Miami
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land [Re: Random Chaos]
      #53360 - Thu Sep 01 2005 04:52 PM

Random:

Check the forecast tracks of 92L in the link you provided; even if it went WNW, it probably wouldn't even be in the Caribbean, or would be just in the eastern Caribbean, in 4-5 days. Definitely not south of Cuba.


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Ryan
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land [Re: Random Chaos]
      #53361 - Thu Sep 01 2005 04:53 PM

Quote:

I just checked the model runs on 92L...

WOW

GFDL brings it to a Category 4 in 4-5 days...about the time it's passing south of Cuba.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Right now Frame 1 is 92L, but I don't know how long that will stay.




yea we are going to have to watch 92L, especially if it goes intot he lesser antilles of the PR/DR/HAITI regina, and the Bahamas(obviously)


and as Brad said its not Cuba your looking at, i think it may be PR or DR

Edited by Ryan (Thu Sep 01 2005 04:55 PM)


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Big Red Machine
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #53362 - Thu Sep 01 2005 04:57 PM

BAMM's seem to show some sharp recurvature.

Other models really run the gamut. I don't think they have too hot of a grasp on the system yet.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_92.gif


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LI Phil
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Re: my workmate [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #53363 - Thu Sep 01 2005 04:57 PM

Quote:

just came in...he said they found Katrina. The roof had been blown off the house, and a tree went through it...

they are alive and fine....a mile from where the hurricane came in. wow




interesting name she has...maybe she can use her middle name for a while...

Just gotta lighten the mood for a second...Phil and I are good at using our middle names! --Clark

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by Clark (Thu Sep 01 2005 05:13 PM)


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naples
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #53364 - Thu Sep 01 2005 04:59 PM

The GFDL model guidance of 92L sure does paint a scary picture. Hope it is wrong. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

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Dawn
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Re: my workmate [Re: LI Phil]
      #53365 - Thu Sep 01 2005 05:00 PM

Thanks for the chuckle Phil, I think we all needed that. Glad that she is OK!

Dawn


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Big Kahuna
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Re: my workmate [Re: Dawn]
      #53366 - Thu Sep 01 2005 05:08 PM

Well this is the first time I have ever seen the NHC put TD 14's information directly over florida on the 5 day cone track. ....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204603.shtml?5day


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land [Re: Takingforever]
      #53367 - Thu Sep 01 2005 05:11 PM

Quote:

And we aren't even done yet with this Season from hell 2. The next storm is going to cause panic like we never seen before.




This is my big fear - in the next storm nobody will go to a "shelter" instead they will clog the roads with traffic resulting in a whole new set of problems.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


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Lee-Delray
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Re: my workmate [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #53368 - Thu Sep 01 2005 05:14 PM

TD 14 Looks very far east of Florida to me
i think he's talking about the information block sitting atop florida. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 01 2005 06:25 PM)


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zmdz01
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Re: my workmate [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #53370 - Thu Sep 01 2005 05:16 PM

Big Kahuna,

When I look at the 5 day track of TD14, I'm not seeing it over Florida. In fact it doesn't even show it getting very close before it turns towards the North. Am I not seeing something that you are?

Marcus

Edited by zmdz01 (Thu Sep 01 2005 05:17 PM)


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naples
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Re: my workmate [Re: zmdz01]
      #53371 - Thu Sep 01 2005 05:18 PM

Big Kahuna is reffering to the storm information being placed over florida, not the storm itself.

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native
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #53372 - Thu Sep 01 2005 05:22 PM

BRM - I pray your right man. On the one hand I keep saying...it's not a "system" yet...the models will do a better job once it is, they're just models, etc. But I HATE the GDFL.,.,.,.,please let this be the beginning of horrible forecasting streak!

Lee-Delray - Big Khauna met the NHC's INFO box is right on top of Florida...not the storm! LOL..

Edited by native (Thu Sep 01 2005 05:23 PM)


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wannabemet
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #53373 - Thu Sep 01 2005 05:22 PM

Just wanted to say about your post...in freeking incredible! Why would we planning officials not have heeded this kind of warning? As a native CA, I guess I can kind of understand this mentality, cause most officials are not prepared for a major earthquake when it comes.

I hope the reports of a possible tropical formation off the east coast of Florida is completely incorrect. To any real mets out there...I know there have been discussions in the past about how much one storm can affect sea tempertures by mixing the different "layers" of water, and thus prevent another storm from brewing up? Since Katrina created storm surges of 20+ ft, would that have an impact on current Gulf surface temps? Would enough mixing have occured that it would prevent another Cat 3-5 from forming if that low travels across FL as possibly anticipated? What are the surface temps out there right now?


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Random Chaos
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Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land [Re: naples]
      #53374 - Thu Sep 01 2005 05:23 PM

Quote:

The GFDL model guidance of 92L sure does paint a scary picture. Hope it is wrong. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation




Here in Maryland I do NOT like that track.

It's showing a 918mb 133kt storm heading toward the east coast in 5 days.

-------------

As for SST mixing, it doesn't look like it. While the SSTs have fallen a little in the Gulf, they still are very high: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/sst-pac-loop.html

You can also look at the hourly scans of SSTs, but these are highly effected by cloudcover:
http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst&region=gulfmexico&nothumbs=0

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Sep 01 2005 05:24 PM)


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HanKFranK
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lee 14 92 [Re: Random Chaos]
      #53380 - Thu Sep 01 2005 06:47 PM

okay, the rundown today.
lee... same as before. sheared, removed convection, drifting north. if the convection redevelops near the center it may intensify. it may also go belly up soon.
14... is a tropical storm, rated a depression. scatterometer overpass missed it, but that little core that shear peeled the convection off of last night is the kind you find with a tropical storm. i'd guess there are 40-50kt unflagged vectors on it. if it redevelops convection near the center.. perhaps it'll get the nudge up. in spite of southeasterly shear the system is maintaining 2.0 and 2.5 t-ratings... sheared systems are usually stronger than their t-ratings would suggest. globals don't show much happening with it.. most weaken it or trough it out.
92L has threat written on it. the system is getting better organized.. holding down 1.5 t-ratings and under decreasing easterly shear. the globals are developing it and the GFDL types are making a monster out of it. most track it to the northeastern caribbean or thereabouts in about five days. i'm not a big proponent of the vacillating GFDL open trough/major hurricane progs... but early indications are that it may be a hurricane at that time. big ridge settling in off the east coast around that timeframe.. if it isn't hanging on the trough ahead of it, this may become a threat further west.
have said much about the pattern-forced pressure falls that are going to happen ahead of the canadian high coming down into the mid atlantic this weekend. should be disturbed weather and low pressure trying to form along a line roughly from north of the yucatan to near bermuda. models show a variety of features developing within this region... different version of events pretty much everywhere. fairly safe to assume that a system or two will try to develop within this area, around the weekend timeframe. the most common version is a system near bermuda that goes out, with another further west.. roughly centered around florida. it may end up being a frontal or high-shear situation. whether something develops will partially depend on how quickly the trough can split and lift out.... if it lingers a shear zone with struggling activity will likely prevail.
another wave will come off africa this weekend. mediocre model interest. could be a brief subtropical-type cutoff south of the azores as well.
that about does it. it's just september... in a hyper-active year.
HF 2246z01september


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: lee 14 92 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #53385 - Thu Sep 01 2005 07:31 PM

Clark has posted a pretty good roundup regarding the new systems. The only one that might be of concern is the wave in the eastern atlantic called "92L", mentioned on the front page. The others are most assuredly fish spinners.

Hopefully nothing will even get close to the gulf in the next few weeks.


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