Brief update on an increaingly active tropical Atlantic basin...
Tropical Depression Lee is currently being sheared by a midlatitude trough passing to its north and east. A weak shortwave ridge is beginning to build in north of the storm, perhaps allowing for a brief period of reorganization, but there is a persistent upper-level low just west of the surface circulation that is essentially killing the storm. The trough along the east coast of the US that includes 's remnants is waiting to pick it up and send it out of here and very little development, if any, is likely with this system. Note that only the northern part of this trough is likely to make much more progress toward the east; the southern end is already being held up by an upper-level ridge (more below) and may serve to be the focus of tropical or subtropical development in a few days. The current organization of Lee reminds me of Irene's initial organization, but unlike Irene, this one isn't headed for warmer waters and more favorable upper-level winds. Just another tally in the record books for an active 2005 season.
South of there, we've got TD #14. This one looks a little better, but still isn't all that well-organized. If both storms were better organized, I'd perhaps expect some mutual interaction between them, but I don't think that'll be the case here. Nevertheless, TD 14 is yet another storm with an upper-low nearby to the east shearing it and keeping it from becoming better organized. Note that my initial position is about 1.5 degrees further west than the position; I believe it to be located more near 48.0-48.5W than 46.5W, as judging from the low-level circulation on the south side of an apparent mid-level circulation near 21N. This one has more potential to develop in the long haul, however, as it moves away from the influence of this upper low and storm-relative shear weakens. Nevertheless, this one is likely one for the fish or, at most, the Canadian Maritimes as a transitioning storm. Waters are warm ahead and the upper-level pattern is expected to become a bit more favorable in the medium-term, so assuming this one holds together long enough, there is the potential for some strengthening as it begins to accelerate/recurve. Probably a 50/50 shot at becoming Maria, but not within the next 24hr at the least.
92L is no longer a threat for development. Chalk it up as yet another indication that the models don't always get things right. It's a pretty small feature and very disorganized at this point, meaning it will take some time for this thing to get going, if it does at all.
There is some support in some of the global & mesoscale models for lowering pressures in the Gulf of Mexico/Bahamas region over the next few days into early next week. A current overview of the region shows a strong ridge building in along the eastern seaboard into the Gulf, a sharp but narrow trough just southeast of there extending from the upper-low east of Bermuda (near Lee) west-southwest into the NW Caribbean, and relatively weak winds with signs of an upper-level ridge forming between that upper-low and the one affecting TD 14 at this point. As the southern end of the trough associated with a frontal boundary and 's remnants slides into the Gulf, it will have a favorable upper-level pattern and marginal to slightly-favorable -- due to 's wake -- SSTs for development. A lot of dry air is projected to be in the region and it is questionable as to whether the development will be tropical or not, but nevertheless it is something to watch. Anything that forms east of Florida will likely ride the coast; anything west of there would likely head west towards the western Gulf -- all assuming the entity that forms would be tropical -- but it's really too early to even speculate on that.
The stories coming out of New Orleans in the wake of are heartbreaking and I encourage those who can assist -- financially or otherwise -- to do so within your means. With other activity out there and the potential for more to come in the near-future, however, my focus here will be on those features from here on out. This is not meant as any slight on those trying to recover from , but given the numerous sources covering the situation, I feel it better not to duplicate their efforts. Best wishes to those who have been affected by the storm, and here's to a speedy recovery.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
