scottsvb
Weather Master
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Dont look at Sat Obs unless you are looking at water vapor to see whats the flow in the atmosphere. Also dont rely on any 1 model cause they change from run to run and especially system to system. If you want to find a center outside of recon..radar and vis sat data are best. Never look for movement on infrered. Current thinking is that the movement is alittle too slow, should make it further out to sea then 79.5W(4) days out, maybe 75W. Then a curl back to the wsw and w by sunday-monday.
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doug
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I disagree with this statement of the direction of the system...the long range radar loop from Melbourne shows a slow NNW drift...the infrared picture represented could be showing the movement of the cloud tops and an expansion of the system...but the LLC is abreast of Caneveral and seems to be slowly moving to the NNW as stated...as per the radar representation.
-------------------- doug
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The Force 2005
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As we don't want to say it, the "Gulf" is a potential as you describe it. But the thinking of the Mets as well as the don't want to even to start that conversation, but in reality, it might have to soon.
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Random Chaos
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Ophelia:
I'm looking at the models, both intensity and track, and the sat image. Here are my opinions - don't take them as fact - I'm not a pro
Ridge to the north appears to be building. This will force Ophelia to stay south, looping it like the , , and UKMET models show. overweakens the ridge, allowing Ophelia to pass through. I don't see this happening.
Ophelia is showing signs that it is going to strengthen beyond SHIPS guidence. It is already a 3.0 - that's just below hurricane strength. Based on this it seems all intensity models are low. ...never even makes Ophelia a TS...clearly wrong. GFDI, GFTI, and GFNI keep Ophelia a TS for 3-4 days before strengthening her to a Cat 2 hurricane in a day...also doesn't seem likely based on what Ophelia has already done. SHIPS and related models bring Ophelia up to a hurricane Cat 1 quickly, but then plateau her and slowly weaken her. While this is possible, given the SSTs and the Sat view, as long as she stay's out to sea I don't see why Ophelia won't grow stronger than Cat 1.
The track is very important to intensity. If Ophelia does this loop that is forcast, it keeps her over warm water longer. The ridge that is forcing the loop is WNW to ESE, which is keeping Ophelia from swinging out to sea, and forcing her south. long term (from NECP's site) takes Ophelia into the Georgia coast and back out over the FL panhandle...the latter point weakened probably to a TD before coming back in over Louisiana. I'm thinking the impact point will be a little further south...into Florida as a Cat 2, and the crossing angle WSW. From there, given a week to allow SSTs to recover from the cooling caused by , we could see Ophelia reach the gulf as TS and strengthen back to a weak hurricane before swinging north around the ridge after 2+ days.
Lets hope is correct and weakens this thing. I don't see it happening.
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GFDL:
Someone asked about the and in the last thread. was very good on the track and intensity of only after became a Hurricane. Before that just kept insisting on dissipating , and gave tracks that were widely disparate and erroneous. Becuase of these track issues before became a hurricane, the southward jog before the Florida landfall was dismissed.
Basically, seems to need a well established system to build a good track and intensity for. A TS that has been so for at least a day, or a Hurricane. When a system is developing this close to land and this quickly, often never gets the chance to lock onto it.
GFDL is based on the AVN run from 6 hours before the comes out (as I recall) combined with biasing information to allow it to lock onto the current storm center. Becuase of this, fast developing systems, like both was and Ophelia is, are hard for the to get a good understanding of.
--RC
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The Force 2005
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I don't buy into the fact that any model might weaken Ophelia, but to strengthen it. Possible hurricane strength by the 5PM advisory. Considering it is stronger now than predicted, the DV"s are higher now than they have ever been, so when the next RECON investigates, possibly, we might indeed have a much larger system, if it meanders over those warm gulf waters.
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Random Chaos
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The Force: That's my fear as well.
-----
We now have Hurricane Nate and Maria is back to Hurricane Maria.
Ophelia...NHC still has no clue what she's going to do. They state that at the end of the 2nd paragraph in the 11am discussion! Wow.
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 07 2005 10:54 AM)
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NewWatcher
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I agree. Ophelia has strengthened more and faster than anticipated. Since last night it has gone from 30-50 mph winds. I would expect 55 mph winds at the 2pm and then very close to if not hurr winds at the 5 pm with the new recon data. I hate to say this but, it would be better for everyone if this thing would just go ahead and come on in. Much less time to strengthen over the next few days. IMHO
-------------------- Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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LOL, it wont become a hurricane unless something dramatic happens in the next 6 hours. It still doesnt have a well defined center. Its a broad (but getting better organized) low with vortexs rotating still around it. Until we can find a tighter center....pressure under 990mb then it might become a hurricane. Probably not until tomorrow or at the earliest 11pm tonight.
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jaxmike
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Just read the 11AM discussion on this thing. Is it just me, or was that a really long way of saying "we really don't know right now"?
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The Force 2005
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My take as well. It states that everyone on the East coast should monitor the storm. Well "DUH" do you think!!!
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The Force 2005
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The official forecast:
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DRIFT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OPHELIA WILL LIKELY MEANDER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
Anyone buying into this?
Edited by The Force 2005 (Wed Sep 07 2005 11:10 AM)
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Chris Bryant
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I really like the "cone of uncertainty" for Ophelia- it is a near perfect circle .
I, too would rather it just came on in- though not on a path to the gulf.
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Random Chaos
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Ophelia looks good on radar: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.shtml
I think Cat 1 by 5pm is a bit fast...but by 11pm is possible. Definately by morning. Ophelia is quickly getting her act together.
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ftlaudbob
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Well I am watching this one down here very closely.If it makes that loop,and heads wsw,We could be in trouble down here in South Florida.Of course we all remember Jeanne.Anyone think this storm could be a threat to my neck of the woods?
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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AgentB
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Well, with the steering currents the way they are right now it doesn't appear that Ophelia will be going anywhere anytime soon. She's drifted just north of Canaveral, and the winds here in Ormond Beach have shifted from NE to N. The waters where she's currently located are warm enough to warrant some strengthening, though she's still about 40mi east of the gulf stream. Like the alluded to, it's going to be a waiting game of sorts to see how the trough and ridge interact, and how strong/organized Ophelia is when it occurs. Right now I'm preparing for some decent winds and rain. I've eyed a few tree limbs that look a bit suspect, and will be getting trimmed after work, weather permitted.
-------------------- Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Wed Sep 07 2005 11:30 AM)
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Beaumont, TX
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So if it meanders...well, a lot can change in five days. Anyone think this might head into the Gulf eventually?
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The Force 2005
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The banding features are starting to fill in on the NW/ and Southern side. If you notice at 11:20 of that loop, you will start to see banding coming in from the SE/Northern sides as well. I expect a much stronger storm by the 2PM update.
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Beaumont, TX
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What about the cloudiness and low over the Gulf? They said, development, in any were to occur, would be slow. What
is the chance this could develop?
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Rabbit
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someone mentioned looping, and that is actually what the is forecasting at the moment, moving Ophelia south and then towards Vero; the UKMET is forecasting a loop off of NE Florida then moving it towards GA/SC border area
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native
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Um...in a word...NO! (in response to Force's question about anyone buying into it)
RC & Force - I hope your worst fears are just that...fears and not reality.
Time will tell...right now she's basically meandering out there so she's tricky to track/forecast/predict right now. I know as well as others must be throwing their hands in air and rolling their eyes on this one. I for one am scratching my head. I do think however that she's getting her act together a touch quicker than originally anticipated.
My best guess (emphasis on guess) is this:
1.) She will be a hurricane come the end of the weekend. I'll stab at borderline CAT 1/2. (Conditions (at least for now, support this)
2.) I do not think she'll make it further north than 31/32N nor will she go east much past 75W before coming around again. (With lack of any real steering currents to speak of, I just don't see her getting that much further north before being forced eastward)
3.) I think if/when she makes it back around it'll be south of the Space Coast. (This ofcourse will depend upon that ridge...how strong, how south & east, etc.)
NewWatcher - I couldn't agree more....I'd gladly take one on chin from her now to prevent the threat she'll pose later.
Edited by native (Wed Sep 07 2005 11:35 AM)
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