The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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From Accuweather:
The bottom line is that the future movement of Ophelia is very uncertain and all interests along the southeast U.S. coast - and even the Gulf coast - should monitor the progress of Ophelia.
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BWH
Registered User
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Posts: 1
Loc: Maitland, FL
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Quote:
Hello,
I'm thinking that it might be making a jog to the West.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Activate the Tropical Frcast points
Zoom in a couple of clicks, inbetween the gap of the two forcast points there looks like a center moving towards the west.
Thoughts...
Melbourne radar also looks like more of a Western Drift to me. Eyewall also looks like it is getting wrapped and ready to strengthen.
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Charlie, Francis and Jeanne Oh my!
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Hey Rasvar, what (where) is the path across Florida JB is taking? Across Daytona, the cape, Ft. Pierce. Is he going with a loop or straight across? Seems that the center of circulation isn't moving much, but shear seems to be increasing again from the east. Wonder if the shear will increase and disrupt the system. I personally don't see this system cutting across across Florida south of 28N. I've never seen that happen since I've been here. Then again there were no hurricanes til '95 
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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I would not be surprised when the RECON gets out in there to find a rapidly deeping storm with perhaps a CAT 1 by the 5PM update.
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Navarre, FL
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No doubt about it- it is tracking much more to the west now than to the north. I expect a SW track before the day is over.
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Looked at a couple different images/maps, and the "center" appears to be just north of the Volusia/Brevard county line. I would say somewhere in between Shiloh and Oak Hill, and off the coast a good number of miles, though on radar it does seem to have drifted west a bit. Still looking disorganized, with a lot of rain/squalls sort of floating off to the east.
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Check the Surf
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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SteveH1, Accuweather (JB) is predicting a slow westward drift across the state from landfall at Daytona Beach west across to Cedar Key and into the GOM.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...ve&partner=
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RJB
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Reaper
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Lake Placid, Fla
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Nate can now see where he's going...
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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The Force......plz give out reasons why you feel Ophelia will do what you think. For 1 its not going to be a hurricane very soon, also was forecasted to move that SW direction,,,they just didnt know where it would turn that way to cross florida. We all like to hear what others think but we need reasons, links to models that show it, WaterVapor ideas seeing where it will go that way, etc....
This is actually for anyone as we dont need to to alarm people after what did. Many are really scared. For now most models agree Ophelia will be a slow mover. Most 12Z want to take her out to sea then curve her back somewhat near 75W and 31N by the weekend. Right now it looks like in the near term she will move closer to Daytona giving them gusty TS force winds. She will move closer due to the ridge over Nate moving away and ridging to her NNE ahead of the trough over the great lakes region. She should then be push by this trough away from Florida but we are not sure of this as of yet. The troughs energy should be taken NE by the weekend ( via most global models) as ridging builds in off the east coast early next week. If she is around 75W by Saturday still then she will probably feel this ridge and move back towards the states from Florida-Carolinas. For the near term its a wait and see.
Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 07 2005 04:48 PM)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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When are we due for the next recon??? Can anyone explain why Accuwether changed their path so dramatically this AM.. When I saw it early today they had it going towards GA?
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
Edited by pcola (Wed Sep 07 2005 04:48 PM)
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
20NM from Cape Canaveral:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.1 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 °F
120NM from Cape Canaveral
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.1 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 93.0 °F
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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OK, I got it...thanks. So they don't see a loop involved, just a slow trek across north-central Florida. Odd path. The 12Z just keeps her off the Florida coast then NE, then east , then stall again. The posisitive side of this is that this inhibits other storms from forming during this time (peak) period. Basically its buying time while just meandering these systems. Not a progresive (East to west) pattern.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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couple hours,, latest pressure was at 999mb, they said poor looking radar obs but that has improved over the last 2 hours. Might be up to 60mph by 5pm if the pressure drops a couple more.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The apparent eye on the radar is pretty small and it wouldn't be surprising to see it break down at some point. The storm is obviously developing an inner core, though.
The 12Z basically does not move the system at all for 48 hours, then begins to move it out to sea, but then slowly loops it back beginning at about 108 hours and finally brushes it up against Cape Hatteras at about 252 hours. That is just one model solution of many, but the bottom line seems to be that this could be around for awhile and be a pain to forecast.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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12:30pm Vortex: [ http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC ]
273
URNT12 KNHC 071658
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/1627Z
B. 28 DEG 44 MIN N
79 DEG 23 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1426 M
D. 40 KT
E. 045 DEG 50 NM
F. 123 DEG 40 KT
G. 042 DEG 57 NM
H. 998 MB
I. 21 C/ 1523 M
J. 23 C/ 1527 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0316A OPHELIA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 40 KT NE QUAD 1607Z
10:50am Vortex for comparison:
000
URNT12 KNHC 071515
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/1450Z
B. 28 DEG 47 MIN N
79 DEG 23 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1437 M
D. 35 KT
E. 315 DEG 60 NM
F. 029 DEG 40 KT
G. 290 DEG 10 NM
H. 999 MB
I. 23 C/ 1514 M
J. 24 C/ 1520 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 134/8
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 0316A OPHELIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 40 KT NW QUAD 1439Z
Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 07 2005 05:02 PM)
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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WINTER PARK, Fla. -- In Orange County, Tropical Storm Ophelia's outer bands brought heavy rains that already collapsed a roof on a building at the corner of Fairbanks and Orange in Winter Park.
The Department of Transportation blocked off a lane on Fairbanks due to the collapse. Engineers were concerned the wall might collapse and debris could fall on the road. People in the building next-door were also worried the damaged building could affect their businesses, as well.
Full content of copyrighted article removed, excerpts are fine, link to full articles if available
Edited by MikeC (Wed Sep 07 2005 06:57 PM)
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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The Devorak loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
you can see the center of the storm drifiting West
Radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml
looks stationary
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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#1 above post TS's don't have a eye they have a center but there is no eye of a TS...#2 you are not seeing the center move but the bands around it the center fix from the shows it still nnw to nw.
Per the 2PM the winds are 50 MPH and Stationary or just about.
Per the 2pm
Edited by ralphfl (Wed Sep 07 2005 05:41 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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This system is no which had a very persistent and vigorous vortex all the way across under hostile conditions (TD 10/dissapated; TD 12/Katrina). This one is very much an infant by that comparison.
BUT the radar presentation shows an improving structure all the time...the center is now ringed with convection and shower activity is increasing on the east and southeast side. It seems to want to tap into the GOM side with a feeder band across Florida. In General this is a strengthening system...
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doug
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I don't see where I claimed there was and eye.
I said "center"
Thank you
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