Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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Yeah, either closed due to winds or closed do to flooding and we know how much of that we have around here. 
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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VG
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa Bay, FL
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#104 Published Wednesday September 7, 2005 at 9:30 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
As weather forecasting is still an inexact science, this not for profit weather discussion is not for use in lieu of official sources, is not for protection of life or property, is for educational purposes only and is subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
Once again sorry for the recent silence as I had been in the moving mode from Plant City to a newly purchased house in Lakeland since Sunday August 27th. Only now have I recovered from the ordeal.
At the 8:00 pm EDT /TPC advisory T.S. Ophelia continues to be quasi-stationary. She has a sustained wind of 50 mph, is at position 28.8 deg. N 79.3 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 29.35" a slight fall since 5:00 pm EDT.
Looking at latest NWS Melbourne, FL NEXRAD radar as well as IR and WV satellite imagery, she continues to get better organized, with convection wrapping around the center of circulation. However she also continues to suffer from just enough southerly wind shear so that most convection is absent in the south and east quadrants. It appears that wind shear will increase with time so I doubt that she will reach CAT 1 hurricane strength in the near term. But as she is over very warm water anything is possible.
Where is she headed? Well quite simply it's totally impossible to accurately forecast a stationary tropical cyclone and as usual the models are quite useless. Eventually a mid latitude shortwave trough will swing by to the north and give Ophelia a tug to the N-NE. But how much of a tug will be determined by the strength and position of the trough. I think the trough will pull her N-NE but not pick her up and send her out to sea. Then we will see high pressure ridging develop to the north and that will swing her around in a clockwise looping motion and head back for the east coast of Central Florida as a CAT 1 hurricane, much like Jeanne. But once again this is no more than educated speculation at this time.
Hurricane Maria is only a threat to shipping and Hurricane Nate will brush Bermuda and then head for the shipping lanes too. There are several other tropical disturbances currently in the Cape Verde wave train and as usual will have to be monitored.
I've had no opportunity to comment on the horrific tragedy that unfolded in LA, MS and AL last week with . I had made a prediction of 10,000+ fatalities and it appears that it may come to fruition. Personally very soon I'm going to travel to AL and MS and hand out food, clothing and $$$ to victims. One very serious lesson that needs to be learned is that you can never depend on government to protect you and take care of you.
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Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
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duck13
Registered User
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Loc: St. Augustine, FL
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NWS/HPC forecasts Ophelia to head WSW into Florida on Days 6 (Tue) and 7 (Wed) according to their MRF discussion:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Charleston, SC
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Talk about sitting and spinning in one place all day. Its like I never left the computer except it now has a closed eye according to the attached radar link out of Melbourne.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.shtml
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Go Boilermakers
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
NWS/HPC forecasts Ophelia to head WSW into Florida on Days 6 (Tue) and 7 (Wed) according to their MRF discussion:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml
I don't like those images. Change them, please 
Actually it's not that far-fetched unfortunately.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Has Ophelia started to be affected by the gulf stream and is it still as warm as it was when was getting her act together?
I had a dream several years back about a hurricane going in to Jacksonville and heading south through Tampa Bay. This was after Andrew and before Floyd that I dreamed this. In the dream politics was blamed for a great deal of death and destruction. I am not saying that any of this is going to happen, it is just a dream that stayed with me all these years. It looks like from some of the model plots that it is coming true and the politics could either be the current ones regarding or more for Florida. I am so hoping that my dream world is just composed of too much publicity and is totally bogus. On the other hand, if the experts that you trust start telling you to get out or to evacuate. Please do. I am not sure if the country could stand more death and destruction in this year.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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not much change.... pressure up a mb?
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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It's interesting to hear that Volusia County is closing schools due to high winds, as we in Jacksonville ponder upcoming decisions. I'd hate to be in charge of the school board or anyone making decisions now. Ophelia is supposed to be thisclose off of our coast, it looks like you could swim out to it. I mean, how do plan for that? At 75 miles one little wobble is all it takes. I suspect we wouldn't know until the last minute if it's going to head closer.
Darn confusing storm!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Well, the pressure going up is a good sign. If Ophelia has been sitting and spinning in the same area for almost an entire day, she has to be pulling some of the heat out of that water .... "upwelling" is the technical term for that, I believe. She cannot keep feeding on the same waters forever.
I just so Joe B. on FNC. He's okay sometimes, but I really hate the "everyone pat me on the back" stuff and then he said that Ophelia could go anywhere. DUH.
Footnote: I will be leaving town tomorrow for a week. I fully expect to come back and welcome Ophelia. ;-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by Colleen A. (Thu Sep 08 2005 03:04 AM)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
Has Ophelia started to be affected by the gulf stream and is it still as warm as it was when was getting her act together?
Currently the Gulf Stream is about 41mi off of Canaveral and 61mi off of Ponce Inlet. Ophelia is located about 85mi offshore. If she drifts cloers though she could pull in more warm water from the GS.
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Check the Surf
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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From the latest recon:
"EYEWALL IRREGULAR IN SHAPE AND THICKNESS, 80 PERCENT COVERAGE"
It's getting organized! Just 3 hours ago recon didn't report an eye (though it could be seen forming on radar).
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC
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wulrich
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Looks like some interesting going's on with Ophelia.
I do notice that the eye has sort of re-organized and is now further west than before, atleast via the Melbourne Radar.
Who knows what this storm is going to do!
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Don't diss the weather. If the weather didn't change every once in a while, 9/10ths of the people in this world couldn't start a conversation.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ophelia isn't quite as strong as i'd guessed it would be, and isn't quite as far to the west either. shouldn't affect the idea of an anticyclonic loop off northeast florida over the weekend. i think it'll go further east than the official, but nothing nutty like the long eastward jaunt the is advertising... it's over-recurvature bias has taken over again. i'm not very sure what will come back to the coast next week. it may still be an off-balance, modest tropical storm, or maybe it'll go jeanne on us under the ridge. the window for its return i'll leave between daytona and charleston.. the big empty quarter that strong hurricanes have generally avoided in the last century (although further back in time this was not the case).
don't see a whole lot going on elsewhere. nate and maria are going out.. nate is going wide of bermuda. wave in the central caribbean is now hard to identify, and shouldn't perk up for days. mess in the gulf is going to be onshore before it can do anything. the big/sharp upper trough that was near 50w has split, with an upper low moving westward near 55w. still pretty much guarantees it'll chop up waves coming in from the east... that big envelope wave near 40w looks to be first to go. the new wave off africa is low latitude and has little model support. lots of dry saharan air down there, keeping the deep tropics relatively stable for now. shows it getting a little livelier late next week. will see.
HF 0456z08september
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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User
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Wow, the cone of uncertainty is a circle.
Is this unusual for a tropical storm to just sit and spin?
I have not followed these storms for that long. Is this rare or just uncommon?
I am glad is not closer to the coast or stronger. A slow moving storm can be bad, but one that does not move at all
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meto
Weather Guru
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just lookin at melb. radar it has moved wsw in the last hour or so. getting better organized.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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meto...get some sleep,,, your seeing wobbles.
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Loc: United States
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Now this is different??? I am confused. The has Ophelia meandering just off of the coast of North Florida for the next several days. I was surfing the net and checking out the Accuweather site. They offer a completely different path. Check this out:
http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-st...0&article=7
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Radar is now showing a SSE movement over the last hour.
On a storm this stationary, every little wobble is an overall movement for the hour. This thing isn't doing anything useful...
*returns to glueing his eyes to the radar screen*
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Is that blob in the BOC anything that I should keep a close eye on ?
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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I thought I saw that too. It amazes me to see where this thing is and they lifted our warnings and watches, (we're south of cocoa beach). I hope they're right but sending the kids to school makes me nervous.
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