Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The last model to suggest something like the Accuweather forecast was the 06Z (and it was an outlier). The 12Z was much further north and the other 12Z models forecasted some sort of cyclonic loop with no landfall anywhere.
The 18Z actually takes Ophelia right out to sea (no loop back towards the coast) beginning in about 24 hours. It would be nice if that verifies.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
The last model to suggest something like the Accuweather forecast was the 06Z (and it was an outlier). The 12Z was much further north and the other 12Z models forecasted some sort of cyclonic loop with no landfall anywhere.
The 18Z actually takes Ophelia right out to sea (no loop back towards the coast) beginning in about 24 hours. It would be nice if that verifies.
You know it's not gonna happen, though. I wouldn't be surprised if we were still asking ourselves "Where the *** is Ophelia going to go?" next Tuesday.
Update: MLB radar now shows 3/4 of an eyewall forming... all it's missing is the east side ... and that is even starting to "fill in" if you will. We could have Hurricane Ophelia by sunrise, I think.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Sep 07 2005 11:23 PM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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The basin is very active right now, obviously. I am a bit concerned about Ophelia given that I am in Central Florida. I am not overly concerned, however.
I have a question for the experts: I see Maria's track. Has a tropical system ever actually made landfall in Greenland or Iceland?
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Park, FL
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I was checking out a few things, and noticed that over the last 15hrs Ophelia has drifted just a bit more north than west(1degN/.6degW). This might not seem very significant, but the further north she travels, the more of an impact the trough should have on her. Something to keep an eye on for sure, and it's interesting to see Mike Seidel of broadcasting from a beach approach where I sometimes surf.
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Check the Surf
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The 18Z drifts the storm slightly to the WSW through 36 hours, then drifts the storm NNE until about 72 hours, then has it take an abrupt left turn and head west to near Jacksonville at about 90 hours.
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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the met I was watching said it would drift north possibly ne if it moved at all. He was using viper radar so I don't know how much fact is there.
the weather channel just said it could possibly be as far north as JAX by Monday and move NE or NW sounds like they are still confused 
Edited by DebbiePSL (Wed Sep 07 2005 11:53 PM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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8 pm interesting says it is intensifying, pressure dropped 2 more mb to 994 but the winds are still at 50, i doubt it.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
8 pm interesting says it is intensifying, pressure dropped 2 more mb to 994 but the winds are still at 50, i doubt it.
You doubt what? That the storm is intensifying or that the winds are 50?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
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When I was a kid and my father was stationed in Keflavik (Iceland) we had a storm come up the first year we were there...1978.
I had totally forgotten the name, but remembered the storm being something strange. Dad reminded me that it was "Hope."
We had a crazy summer that year in Iceland...our midnight babeball games were sometimes played in 50 degree temps, and then a few nights later in snow.
Iceland was THE coolest place to be a kid, though. I was there 4-6th grade.
WX patterns were COMPLETELY whacked, though, since we had the Gulf Stream circling us.
Good times.
/Anton
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"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein
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damnedcat
Registered User
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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Gosh, a mass call just went out from Volusia County School Board. Volusia County Schools will be closed tomorrow in expectation of high winds.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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the wave coming off africa looks pretty inpresive now, we'll have to wait and see if it goes northward or southward, southward, we have to watch it, obviously.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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Volusia County schools are faced with the same delimna that everyone else on the East Coast is facing. Can you imagine having a bus load of kids injured because a wind gust blew the bus from the road?!?
Most of the EOC's in this area on "stand by" mode. We outfitted ours today and can activate within 45 minutes, but conditions in the area right now don't require any activation. Hopefully, we learned something from the aburp shift of Hurricane last year. "Be ready and don't let your guard down."
Volusia County is opening one shelter tomorrow. It will be at the County Fair Grounds and will actually be three shelters in one - persons with special needs, general population and pet facilities. The west side of the County has been dealing with flooding for weeks and can not handle any more rain at all. A very strong squall just passed over my house about 1.5 miles west of the coast, heading for the west side of the County.
Michael
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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i meant i find it hard to believe that the pressure can drop that much without a wind change, i doubt the winds are still 50
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
i meant i find it hard to believe that the pressure can drop that much without a wind change, i doubt the winds are still 50
Why is that hard to believe ? did the same thing just last week
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
i meant i find it hard to believe that the pressure can drop that much without a wind change, i doubt the winds are still 50
Pressure often drops in advance of a wind increase. In fact, the latest Vortex recon from about 8pm shows the pressure drop to 994mb and a FL wind drop to 42kt, down 8kt from the 5pm recon. I would expect a wind increase before the next recon based on the pressure falls.
HCW - Using doesn't help explain anything - she didn't do anything by the book.  had a pressure fall and eyewall expansion at the same time at one point. That should not be possible under normal hurricane growth.
Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Sep 08 2005 12:47 AM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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ok either i am not understanding u 2 or u 2 are not understanding me, i was saying i thought the winds would be higher with the pressure drop. maybe i am wrong.... it happens all the time, just ask my husband lol
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Ok...let me see if I can explain 
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Pressure fall leads to a wind increase. This wind increase can be after the pressure fall by a couple of hours.
The alternative is the central wind field can expand. This would leave the wind speeds the same or lower with a pressure drop. It can indicate a growing storm.
As someone mentioned a good analogy, think of a figure skater pulling their arms in. They go faster. That's what happens when an eye contracts. Now a pressure fall is the equivilent of spinning faster without changing your arms. If you let your arms out, it can return you your old rotational (ie wind) speed, but it expands the area within which you see that wind.
Does that help?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The supplementary vortex message issued after the recon fix indicates a flight level wind of 54 knots in the SE quadrant. I believe the strongest winds were found in the SE quadrant by the last plane, too. Based on how the system is structured, that is not what you would expect, since the most intense convection is to the west.
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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Doesn't seem kind of weird that this thing is now stationary off the coast? I mean if it stops, like it has basicly been all day, that means it could take a totaly different trak. Now since Volusia county schools are closed tomorrow it makes me a little more nervous
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: DeBary, Florida
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Just think, It is Wednesday and if Ophelia just spins out there until Monday or Tuesday, do you think Volusia County schools will be closed Thurs, Fri, Mon, Tues ... This could be awful.
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