Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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I think people are storm weary to some extent. I know Texas is concentrating on helping out the evacuees and getting the kids
into schools. So we are still focused on the aftermath of .
And I think after Ophelia doesn't seem like such a threat (which she could be down the road). Therein lies the danger. If she
strengthens she could become a threat and people may not be ready. I also don't think people pay much attention to TS and Cat 1
hurricanes. They tend to pay more attention if the hurricane becomes major. I think the is doing the best they
can in forecasting this storm but she's tricky. No, you don't worry too much. Never hurts to be prepared.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i agree with Beaumont, like cat 1 or cat 5...be prepared for anyhtingg....i mean anyhting is possibleee....
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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If you look at the graph range on Ophelia strength from , they show her everything from a TS through a Cat 4 as possible, with the trend hitting cat 2. She could do anything...
I realize those are historically based statisical plots...but still - it's worth watching, especially since the (18Z run) brings her up to a strong Cat 3 -- 109kts.
As said above, expect anything from this storm.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The latest recon fix indicates an almost due north movement from 30.4 N to 30.8 N along 77.1 W over a two-hour period. It also indicates the pressure has fallen back to 983 mb.
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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: South Carolina
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Good morning, CFHurricane family.
Any mets wish to weigh in on Ophelia's likely track and intensity this am? Beaufort County, SC emergency management is meeting at 9:00 am to make a decision on evacuation. path, I see, is moved north, with the being a southern outlier. Any thoughts as to how much weight I should put on that model, which seems to be more current, in making my own decision?
All thoughts gratefully accepted. Last night, I was strongly leaning toward leaving today (I have elderly inlaws, dogs, etc), but today am leaning toward "hold", since landfall seems to have been pushed back some.
Thanks!
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cantbile
Registered User
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I have just discovered this site. Great place. However there tends to be too much speculation on what will happen and rarely has any of the speculation come to fruitation. The simplest answer, and the one the puts out but alot tend to ignore, is there is alot of uncertainty, hence the "margin of error or uncertainty". Sometimes things are easier to define , but sometimes they are not. The more we know about something often results in more questions then answers.
In this case, even for the experts, there were , and still are more questions then definable answers.
All I can suggest to everyone in the cone is to be prepared. I am in that cone, and I do not take it litely, nor do I take the word of "any" forcaster as the word of god. Things change, even as far in as a few hours. This is a fundamental nature of life. I could walk across the street and get hit by a car. No one can predict that with a definative answer. Just be prepared if your in the cone. It is frustrating, however we have no control over that, so it is often best to just check up every few hours and do not become plowed to the screen and worry yourself to death. Just keep an eye on things and be prepared. I make my family prepare and plan way before, that way if the worst case scenerio seems about to happen in our area, we are ready to go. No last minute rush.
Edited by cantbile (Sat Sep 10 2005 12:44 PM)
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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Quote:
For those who forcasted for the storm not to move much further north than 30-31, do you still feel that way? I read that from more than one poster on this site. The forecast made a lot of sense to me. I would love to hear an update from any of you regarding your prediction. I am interest edin learning if you still believe it won't move further north and where you feel it will eventually make landfall.
I was one of the ones that thought the storm would slowly drift across Florida. However, the trough that came through got stronger and deeper than what I had thought. In Orlando, you can feel the effects of the trough as it is actually cool this morning.
As of this time, there's no reason to doubt the reasoning that SC/NC will get hit. Where in that area is still up for discussion and will largely depend on when the storm starts its predicted turn.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
As of this time, there's no reason to doubt the reasoning that SC/NC will get hit. Where in that area is still up for discussion and will largely depend on when the storm starts its predicted turn.
I agree. Looking at the VIS imagery, Ophelia is moving exactly on the 5am ET foreacast track - or as exactly on it as an untrained eye can tell. The turn to the West should begin within a few hours, if that situation holds - if it has not already begun. Interesting thing, though.... the forecast calls for a turn from due west to WNW a day or so after the west turn. I feel like it could hit anywhere from Jacksonville north... if it doesn't stall or turn again!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
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I stayed up till after the 5 a.m. update and got back up from a nap about 45 minutes ago. Since then I've been studying the loops, highs & lows, etc.
In the wee hours of the morning I had convinced myself that O was moving on out - it looked like she was pressed between two highs and being "spit" northeast, at about 10 miles an hour.
Now it looks like O has stalled like they predicted - it hasn't moved much at all since 3 a.m. It's just waiting till the highs open and give it a path out.
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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
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deleted by Ormond Suzie
Edited by Ormond Suzie (Sat Sep 10 2005 01:46 PM)
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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pressure now down to 976. Looks like she is back to being a cane .
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The recon plane recently found flight-level winds of 75 knots, but that only corresponds to 60 kt at the surface using the 20% reduction from 850 mb. Unless they find something a little stronger before the next advisory, they may decide to leave it as a tropical storm. I don't think they like to flip flop between listing it as a tropcial storm and hurricane too often.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
The recon plane recently found flight-level winds of 75 knots, but that only corresponds to 60 kt at the surface using the 20% reduction from 850 mb. Unless they find something a little stronger before the next advisory, they may decide to leave it as a tropical storm. I don't think they like to flip flop between listing it as a tropcial storm and hurricane too often.
The difference between a 60kt tropical storm and a 65kt hurricane is really not huge. What's more disconcerting is that it appears on IR and VIS imagery like she's not moving again.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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There isn't much difference between a strong tropical storm and a weak hurricane, but I know that forecasters like to maintain consistency in their public products if at all possible.
The latest recon fix reported 82 knot winds at 988 mb from the dropsonde, which is near the surface. Assuming that they consider that to be representative (and not some sort of small-scale feature), it likely will be a hurricane again.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast/Advisory Number 17
Watches now up
at 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the
southeast coast of the United States from north of the Savannah
River South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
Hurricane center located near 31.6n 76.5w at 10/1500z
position accurate within 30 nm
present movement toward the northeast or 40 degrees at 3 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 976 mb
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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And it is a hurricane again, with winds of 70 knots (80 mph). The latest forecast caps the intensity at 75 knots, though, which is down from 85 knots. That seems reasonable... it is certainly possible it could get stronger than 75 knots, but considering the rather unfavorable environment that it is in, forecasting only slight intensification as the most likely scenario is the best idea.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The recon flight is now flying at 700 mb and recently found 78 knot flight-level winds, which corresponds which converts to a 70 knot surface wind, which I assume is the basis of the intensity. It'll be interesting what they have to say about the dropsonde winds.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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nate and maria have finally left us this morning (nate is being classified as a remnant low even though it's still got gale force winds... looks to be in an unrecoverable state, though). that leaves ophelia.
ophelia took a northeastward track yesterday that pretty much busted the jacksonville to beaufort solutions. i never pegged a spot, but georgia was on my mind... well, it's the like the song says. anyhow, now the track has run all the way up the coast to georgetown.. but its progress seems to have ended. the track right now seems reasonable, and puts the greatest threat on the georgetown/grand strand area... georgetown and horry counties. the models are by no means clustered, with the down at the bottom near beaufort.. consistently stronger and further west than the consensus, and the rest strung out between charleston and wilmington. intensity with this one is going to be real nutty, as ophelia has consistently had winds below what the pressure would normally dictate (976 mb is usually paired with 90-100mph winds). it is possible that ophelia's winds will play catch-up like 's did, or that the inner core will remain broad and the wind field more expansive and less intense. i'm going to hedge my bets that they will by monday. with the official bringing it in at implied 75-80kt, the is taking the conservative line yet again. whether the gulf stream will allow this remains to be seen, but there is definitely plenty of subsidence and a somewhat sheared outflow pattern to make it so. a lot of the global models are suggesting slight strengthening, which usually translates to some in the real world.. usually more than models project. for that reason, i'm going to peg it as a 2 at landfall, and bias the track a little left... closer to mcclellanville in upper charleston county. anything from a cat 1 to a cat 3 is possible, depending on how ophelia handles subsidence and whether the outflow pattern can ever become dominant over the shear.
don't have any classes, just a T.A. responsibility that maybe i can hand off for tuesday. might go to the coast if i can find some others who want to catch ophelia.
rest of the basin has the -supressed signature, without a whole lot of convection to go around. whether an wave will move across or pulse and die like the one in august remains to be seen. if it does move, it ought to get here late in the month... and linger to the secondary peak in early/mid october. stuff in the meanwhile should be struggling in the deep tropics, or perhaps an odd system or two will flare in the subtropics out of cut off systems... maybe a pattern pulse system if oscillations and strong highs diving into the east can force lower pressures in the western atlantic or caribbean. the pattern right now is one that would be very scary if multiple storms were roaming, as height anomalies in the eastern u.s. are progged to remain above normal... a gulf system right now would also be very likely to hit texas. the flareup we were tracking up from the BOC is too close to land right to do anything... but were anything to fester right now it would spell trouble.
HF 1629z10september
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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I don't see any reason that Ophelia will take as hard a left turn as predicted, i am still holding my forecast of a NE South Carolina or SW North Carolina landfall, with 90-100 mph winds.
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