Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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Winds have increased to near 85 mph. Could they go any higher? Could this storm affect Chincoteague, Virginia?
Worried about those ponies.
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TheSkyGuy-in-OZ
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Australia
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The only thing you can count on is that anything can happen.
This storm is doing what she wants, not what is expected of her
so if your near by, be ready for anything (Get those Ponies to safety) 
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The Eye In The Sky
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sailor
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: cape cod
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JB still says this will track more westward and pass between block island and cape cod. discussion state that some models are going west as well after the NC passage. Any thoughts?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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12Z appears to be further left compared to its previous runs, though it still takes the storm east of Cape Cod in about 72 hours. It may take awhile for the storm to weaken significantly, assuming interaction with land doesn't do it in as it passes along the NC coast. Outflow will temporarily be enhanced by the approaching trough and then favorable baroclinic influences should keep it as an intense cyclone as it gradually becomes .
Even if it still has minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm intensity as it approaches New England, though, the strongest winds will likely be displaced to the eastern half of the system by then, so it will have to take a track a fair amount west of what is currently expected for anyone up there to get some significant impacts from this system.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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95L got a mention in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the first time:
A LARGE WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well just talked to my family up in NC... grandma lives in Brunswick County... Just outside of Southport (lowest part of NC that Sticks out on map).....power is out, been out since 7:00 this morning and local news tv is saying most of ILM is without power...(they have a Generator).... The also heard and seen reports of MAJOR beach erosion on Caroline - up to Atlantic Beach.... Sayed this biggest problem is the RAIN... they have rain guage... 8 inches of rain in 5hrs today.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Level 3 radar images updated every 5 mins with warnings. Hopefully next time Mike can set up a mirror for me 
http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=3744
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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winds 85mph earlier but at 80mph on 2pm adv on wunderground.com
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The 2pm advisory has been corrected to reflect the 85 mph maximum winds.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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check the radar out and see the more NE movement now with the storm.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kltx.shtml
As i stated before this storm may not ever hit the coast and now with this new loop it looks more like it won't.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Don't agree...to me, Morehead City looks dead in the middle of its current movment. It's currently moving NNE and would need almost a due east motion to miss it.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Opehlia has basically been one of the easier storms to forecast. Still going to brush the carolinas with TS force winds and hurricane force over the outerbanks then move NNE-NE near eastern Long Island and brush Cape Cod. There is a chance it might go further out to sea but this has been my forecast for the past 5 days now. The system has been moving slightly slower then I forecasted though last week.
95L should become a TD in a day or 2 movement will be difficult after 3 days as many models show a trough over the eastern carribean N towards bermuda. Also possible 96L in a day or 2 N of puerto rico should swing Sw then W and be near hispaniola by the weekend.
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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Looks to me like shes already hit land and is off the forcast track alittle
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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La Nimo
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach
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Didn't you have making land fall between Cross City and Cedar Key.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The northern eyewall has hit land, but the center of the storm has not. The center appears to be headed in the general direction of Cape Lookout.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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The storm to me is tracking due North now. Away from forecasted track. Does anyone else see this?
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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I don't think a brush, but a battering!!
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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It does like north at this point, but too early to see if it's a trend. There have been some other fluctuations during the day.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Ed,
Where are you located in Va? I expect the Tidewater area to get some of the fury of this storm.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Williamsburg...so don't expect any big impact here. Tidewater could be another story.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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