CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 164
Loc: East Central Florida
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Today June 1st is officially the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Many predictions on how many storms have been made by experts and non-experts alike. But it’s not really on the number of Hurricanes we get this year, it is “ The One” that eventually will hit a populated area on the coast of the Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico. Will it be this season or another season? This is the main question we all have. It has been 10 years since the last major hurricane has hit the US coast. (Hurricane Andrew 1992). Are you prepared?
Here at the Central Florida Hurricane Center we want to welcome back all of you and those of you who found this site for the first time. We are not an official hurricane site, but we do have some very knowledgeable folks who post in the forums with predictions, current storms and all other aspects of tropical weather. This is an interactive site and we welcome you to post your feelings, predictions and anything storm related. If a system is out there you can be assured we all will be tracking it.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.
- [jc]
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Happy Hurricane Season.! Be prepared and safe this Hurricane Season....
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Happy day one...let's hope no one gets hurt
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Yes it is here again, the time of year when we all need to be aware & prepare. Like john says its "THE ONE " that will hit a populated area . I know here in Pinellas county the population has expanded 3 fold ...... I sure dont want to see another Andrew .............. I would also like to take this time to thank John & Mike for the oppurtunity to share another "MEAN SEASON" here on , They are the ones they make it all happen here and make this site the best that it can be . ...........WHOOOORAH !!!!!!! ..... Hopefully we will all come thru this one safely.
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, i think more Special Tropical Disturbance Statements have been issued by the in the past two weeks than they normally issue in a whole season! Still, it has got us in the mood for the real season... and here we are on day one.
So what is there around that needs watching now we are officially in the season? Not alot! Although, the small complex that is off shore near the Mexico / Texas border has grown in size and intensity over the past few hours. IR imagery and early visible loops suggest some rotation associated with this discrete system. It is in the area that was mentioned in yesterdays STDS issued by the , but surface analysis only indicates it as a trough.
Personaly i think we will have at least one Tropical Cyclone this month, unsure as to its intensity tho. I dont think we will see a hurricane until July however.
Anyways, here wishing you all a safe season.
Rich
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Uh, Oh! It is back...
Storm-battling operation to move to Melbourne
Research flight set for Tuesday; more to follow
By Wayne T. Price
FLORIDA TODAY
A company developing technology meant to take the punch out of hurricanes is moving its weather-modification testing division -- about 30 employees -- to Melbourne, and will conduct research flights from Melbourne International Airport.
Dyn-O-Mat claims a product it developed can be dropped from an aircraft into a storm cell and essentially disintegrate it. Such a process, if ever perfected, theoretically could eliminate a hurricane before it posed any danger.
Dyn-O-Mat is scheduled to make an initial research flight Tuesday from the Melbourne airport, and plans more extensive research flights in July and August, said J.D. Dutton, the company's president.
One reason Dyn-O-Mat, selected Brevard County is because of the company's alliance with Melbourne-based AeroGroup Inc. AeroGroup owns the aircraft Dyn-O-Mat uses in its research.
Dutton said his company makes a polymer that's dropped into a storm cloud. The substance absorbs the moisture and converts into a gel, which then falls into the ocean and dissipates.
"For the past three years, we've done extensive laboratory testing on the material, and for about the past year, we've been doing field testing with it," Dutton said. The latest test was last year, when Dutton said Dyn-O-Mat researchers attacked a growing thunderstorm off the coast of West Palm Beach.
"Within less than a minute, that cell was actually blipped off the radar screen," Dutton said.
Hugh Willoughby, hurricane research director at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Miami, said he's very familiar with Dyn-O-Mat and has doubts about whether the product works as the company claims. Willoughby, who has studied hurricanes for 33 years, said the type of cloud system that "blipped off the radar screen" was one that collapses very quickly on its own anyway.
"There's a tremendous amount of skepticism about weather modification," Willoughby added.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Post deleted by John C
Reason: Duplicate Post
Edited by John C (Sat Jun 01 2002 12:57 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Happy hurricane season 2002!  Gray did lower his numbers, but I don't really think it matters. For the past few years, he has consistantly predicted low anyways. We'll probably end up with 12/7/3. Maybe a little higher, maybe a little lower. He says that the SSTAs are low because of the NAO and AO being positive. The forecast also said that these are natural during times of strong Atlantic thermocline, but I believe this to be a bit suspicous. All it would take is a negative NAO in August for a while for us to have warmer than normal water temps, IMO. We'll see. Stay safe.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Happy hurricane season 2002! Gray did lower his numbers, but I don't really think it matters. For the past few years, he has consistantly predicted low anyways. We'll probably end up with 12/7/3. Maybe a little higher, maybe a little lower. He says that the SSTAs are low because of the NAO and AO being positive. The forecast also said that these are natural during times of strong Atlantic thermocline, but I believe this to be a bit suspicous. All it would take is a negative NAO in August for a while for us to have warmer than normal water temps, IMO. We'll see. Stay safe.
And now for a poll...
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The previous two posts were from me. I forgot to logon. 
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John C
Unregistered
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You can find the website on Dyn-O-Mat here!
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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ok, they want to try and drop their 'stuff' in a Hurricane or Tropical Storm in its embryo stage... hmmm... well that must mean Tropical Disturbance / Tropical Depressions only then i trust, as a Hurricane and Tropical Storm are mature systems as opposed to embryonic... i know exactly where i think they should place this 'stuff'
Rich
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I think it's foolish to try and mess with Mother Nature. We don't know what the outcome may be down the road, and there may be a reason (duh) why these things occur naturally. However, what happens when they public gets so used to it (if they indeed use it) and it works, that when a humongous storm brews and it cannot be stopped?
I don't know...I think "nature" is something you just let happen. Messing with it is like opening a Pandora's Box. You don't know what's inside until you open it, and you may not like the results.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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John C
Unregistered
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Agree Colleen!
For every Action there is a reaction!
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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People are making to much out of Dr.Gray lowering his storms for 2002,that said even if we get 11 storms this year we will still reach the K storm,thats alot,remember 1992 there were only 6 total storms and we all know what happened that year.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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John and Coleen, i agree with you both. If they mess with mother natue then she could fight back harder and stronger!
I remember having this discussion last year when Dynomat first came to the fore, and i see opinion does not seem to have changed much 12 months on.
Ok, what about the action in the tropics? Well there is very little. The low off the texas coast has once again degenerated in to a trough, with the convection decreasing in intensity and coverage. I think that the first storm this year will be this month, and i think it will develop either in the Gulf of Mex or in the western / central caribbean. Like i said before i dont expect the first system to become a hurricane.
Rich
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Anybody remeber the TV commercial back in the 70's , I think it was for some butter or something. The catch phrase was ....IT'S NOT NICE TO FOOL WITH MOTHER NATURE......hehehehe 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Evening all.... Seaons offical today... So off we go...
Not much to look at this evening. Most of the convection tonight is several hundred miles off to the east-southeast of the Bahamas.... Don't expect any thing any time soon..
Numbers don't mean that much if you get hit by a major storm. I expect it to be an interesting season, regardless of numbers...
Dyno-jell is back I see.. bummer... Need not be messing with nature... could cause more harm than good IMO... let good old mother earth vent off some of her excessive heat during the summer.....
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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I see a poll coming !!!!!!! c'mon already
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Man it's sad when it is this dead on the first day of the season. We all waited so long for this day and there were so many posts and comments leading up to this day and now,just like that,......nothing! When will the shearing let up???? 
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