Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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I think what ever happens somthing will be in southeast florida waters mid to late this week.(1) First off if 96L does not get going 17 will absorb it and head towards florida or hamper it from developing and 17 will turn west towards florida and 96L will just meander off somewhere down by mexico as 17 turns north over florida or the ne gulf of mexico. (2)if 96L gets going then 96L will deflect 17 out to sea for while and 96L will head for florida then towards the northwest gulf coast then 17 will hook back wnw towards virginia jersey area later as the ridge builds east. as for strength i would imagine hurricane force is very possible for both systems.
Edited by Robert (Sat Sep 17 2005 04:02 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Just a quick note on the 2 systems of intrest. is exactly what Hank said. It changes from run to run on systems that are below TS strength, dont buy in or speculate on how strong 97l will get until it makes it to a TS. Movement looks right, wnw with a bend w towards the keys or homestead area in 3-4days. It should enter the SE Gulf by Weds or Thurs. A strong ridge currently over the N gulf is expected to slide westard late next week and a trough will dig down over the SE into next weekend. It could be steer then N towards w central florida or the panhandle closing in on next weekend or the trough might not be strong enough and it will move w or even wsw towards the western gulf and mexico next weekend. Too early to tell and also matters on the speed of the system over the next 3-4days.
TD16 should become a hurricane by Monday or Tuesday and move in a general direction towards bermuda. Again a trough entering the Se the end of next week and a strong ridge over 50-60W next week will push anything slowly NNW-N. Intrests though in the near term of the NE lesser Antilles should moniter the TD for TS force winds Sunday night into Monday.
scottsvb
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Thats confusing,what is 16l? and 17l? do you mean TD17? well system N or Hispaniola would be TD18 so not quite sure what ya ment and then that throws off what and where you have the systems.. TY
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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16L = OPHELIA 2005 -or- AL162005
17L = TD17 -or- AL172005, this is the system east of the windward islands (close to South America)
18L = TD18 -or- AL182005 Does not yet exist
AL962005 is the system East of the Turks and Caicos islands shown tracking very close to South Florida
Edit: Just to clarify this issue for casual users... I know Scott knows this...
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
16L = OPHELIA 2005 -or- AL162005
17L = TD17 -or- AL172005, this is the system east of the windward islands (close to South America)
18L = TD18 -or- AL182005 Does not yet exist
AL962005 is the system East of the Turks and Caicos islands shown tracking very close to South Florida
Now that GOES is back up, we can see the latest imagery... and it appears that 96L is fizzling at least for now, while TD 17 is probably already Phillippe, but doesn't appear to be moving much to me - only difference between the last image before GOES went down and the one since it came back is size of the system, not location, that I can tell - or maybe a WNW movement, but not NW to my eye.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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First Vortex Recon on TD17 is out:
818
URNT12 KNHC 171845
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/18:10:10Z
B. 13 deg 38 min N
054 deg 52 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 18 kt
E. 344 deg 022 nm
F. 009 deg 022 kt
G. 258 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C/ 308 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0117A CYCLONE OB 02
MAX FL WIND 22 KT W QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL TEMP 25C 140/09NM FROM FL CNTR
Source: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Actually, I think 96L looks better now... the big blow up of convection earlier was well to the east of the center of the system... there is more convection now closer to the center.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i will be closely watching 17 becuase most or the models like , , all show an easterly turn at one point or another, wetehr its to FL, NC, VA, NY...im watching it. I've been seeing signs up around here that read "It's Hurricane Season..and LI is in line. Are You Prepared"....i don't know those are not to appealing..
what do people think about this thanng.
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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mojorox
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Orlando
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I am supposed to be driving to ocean springs for a week to help my sis sift through the rubble of her house. How soon if anything develops do you think there would be any weather in the area. We are taking a tent.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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If you're taking a tent, I'd go buy a weather radio and spare batteries to augment it. These storms are just developing. The models aren't in horrible dissagreement the way they usually are with developing systems, but at the same time you can never trust tracks (a) with systems below Tropical Storm strength and (b) more than 2 days out. TD 17 isn't likely to affect you, but Invest 96L might. Its at least a few days from Florida at the earliest, though, no matter what track it takes.
--RC
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SEFL
Registered User
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We are getting local warnings (Palm Beach County and south) for Monday and Tuesday for 96L up to tropical storm level.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Ok, the 18Z 96L model is out...and it is downright disturbing. 138kt hurricane from 96L just as it passes the southern tip of Florida.
The 12Z 17L model (18Z isn't out yet) shows 17L as a 126kt hurricane, though well out to sea.
Now I realize the isn't a great predictor of intensity, but frankly these two are disturbing. Anything that shows twin Cat 4 and Cat 5 storms...ack.
At least SHIPS isn't showing them that strong...only bringing both to about 100kt storms.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
This latest loop with stated time 8:15 pm EDT shows TD 17 starting to get the classic look. I hope this little storm stays well away.
The disturbed area over near Puerto Rico still has some growing to do. I would prefer rain only thank you.
-------------------- God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
TD 17 isn't likely to affect you, but Invest 96L might. Its at least a few days from Florida at the earliest, though, no matter what track it takes.
--RC
hey RC, will 17 affect anyone or you think it will stay off the coast n out to sea?
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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The 138kt you stated is at 950mb so if you drop that down to sea level then you have 110kt.
Dave
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
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Loc: BROWARD
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Quote:
We are getting local warnings (Palm Beach County and south) for Monday and Tuesday for 96L up to tropical storm level.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mfl&wwa=special%20weather%20statement
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Should have TS Phillipe at the 11:00PM advisory.
URNT12 KNHC 172040
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/20:13:20Z
B. 13 deg 44 min N
054 deg 54 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 47 deg 069 nm
F. 151 deg 034 kt
G. 050 deg 107 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C/ 307 m
J. 24 C/ 306 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0117A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 18:21:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 333 / 8NM
Recon Page
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
The 138kt you stated is at 950mb so if you drop that down to sea level then you have 110kt.
Dave
Uh...the model shows sea leavel pressure at 936.5mb when winds are 138kt@950mb...which means that is surface wind speed by then, right?
And 17L's 18Z models don't show much change from the 12Z ones.
Edit: Strange e-mail address auto-generated in this post
Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Sep 17 2005 10:15 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Read the bottom of the GFDI chart where you need to reduce MB by 15 to 25 % see 000z run
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
Edited by Old Sailor (Sat Sep 17 2005 10:21 PM)
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SEFL
Registered User
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Posts: 9
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Quote:
Quote:
We are getting local warnings (Palm Beach County and south) for Monday and Tuesday for 96L up to tropical storm level.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mfl&wwa=special%20weather%20statement
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Weather+Outlook
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