Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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If you look directly to the west of , you'll see a complete weakness in the currents. The prevailing air currents tend to do a slight clockwise rotation around the GOM which helps lead so many hurricanes into the GOM. It's like a dog with really big teeth on a leash. If you look to the north of the hurricane, you'll see a pressure sitting there like a wall, keeping it south of the panhandle.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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12 Z takes a more northerly route now and at day 5 has SW of Beaumont, and kind of stalling it there briefly. On another note, and as noted in the 11am discussion, Phillipe is moving to the NW now, with an exposed LCC. A shift further to the west could occur with the next advisory, and could get interesting in a few days as a weakened system will submit to lower level steering. The and imply this on 12Z as they should energy coming out of Phillipe to the SW, as the mainlow heads north. It could also be the swirl located to the NNE of the Leewards that is moving west. Think someone may not be done with phillipe just yet :?: Cheers!!
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
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Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
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If stays the course we may get the next best thing to a fish-spinner . We'll have an old fashioned Texas barbecue ! More cattle than people out that way.
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Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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I know this is a little off subject, but does anyone have a link to 97L (or is it 98L- the one SW of Cape Verde Isl)? Just curious about the models and forecast.
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
The satellite and radar both suggest a growing and strenghtening system...Looks like de ja vu.
No, no...well except for the keys, sort of.
When Kat came out of FL going SW, she did pound the Keys with her bands and got pretty close. She had a hard time with dry air for the next couple days, although I seem to remember no shear. She kept trying to intensify but no luck with the winds, but every little mb she was able to drop she hung onto it, growing little by little the first couple days into the GOM, back to a Cat 1 when several folks thought she'd blow up right away into a Cat 3. It took awhile for her to get to Cat 2. It wasn't until she turned a little more N and hit the loop current that she first immediately got up to a Cat 3, and then just kept going.
The little bit of the loop current in place since Kat went through, is a spherical area south of LA which is going to be too far N for , and then a little finger of warm water coming up from the western end of Cuba, which she'll get to sometime Wed. Now outside of the favorable conditions right now, that is it for . So if she gets to strong Cat 2 / even weak Cat 3 later today, not necessarily going to hold onto that before she gets to the end of Cuba. There, probably Cat 3, depending on the shear, since that seems to really be a factor for , but again not going to hold onto that intensity by the time she gets to the TX coast.
But...as stated, too soon to be completely certain about landfall in the GOM. But by Wed night there will be a much higher degree of certainty.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Katrina was also only moving at 5mph FOREVER...when it hit the gulf coast/NO etc, it sat there scouring and cranking the storm surge into Lake Ponchatrain for an extended period of time which, in my opinion, was one of the REAL causes why levees failed. is moving at a fairly fast clip of 15mph so any strengthening is going to have to occur pretty fast and in a completely different way then occured with .
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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If you go to the main page, it is about 1/3 of the way down, it is a thumbnail
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Can you send a link to what you are looking at? The 12Z run? I can't seem to see what you are seeing.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Susan in Jupiter, FL
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
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It's getting more breezy here now, and on radar looks like in just a short while we'll start getting the very north feeder band. Just a few sprinkles of rain so far this morning.
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Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma
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oil trader
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
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Quote:
New models out agree with you.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
So, Do you think the is going to go back with his previous track?. I remember 4 days before , there was a such ping pong game in the track models and also in the official forecast.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Actually Psyber..Katrina was moving at 12 mph at landfall..forward speed increased in the 12 hours before ...
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
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Im really worried about NO with this storm.
They said yesterday even tho the eye looks like it passes some distance to the west, NO should still get wind and rain and 3 inches will cause catastrpohic damage again and break the levees.
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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I think everyone should pay attention to this storm. Yes, the models show another (again!) shift to the east. Stay on your feet, but don't be extreme in your action. Just be aware and ready. The models could shift again and you are out of the woods, but who knows? I remember that we (FL . panhandle) were under the gun only 3 days before hit, but the models shifted signifcantly. Just be alert- you can never tell.
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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I believe 97L is no more. It's no longer on the Navy webpage Link 
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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Yeah, I agree- it looks like it might be gone. Thanks for the info!
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Katrina was also only moving at 5mph FOREVER...when it hit the gulf coast/NO etc, it sat there scouring and cranking the storm surge into Lake Ponchatrain for an extended period of time which, in my opinion, was one of the REAL causes why levees failed. is moving at a fairly fast clip of 15mph so any strengthening is going to have to occur pretty fast and in a completely different way then occured with .
Yes and the large windfield, that was why it was just so completely astonishing the mayor didn't act on Friday night, or Sat morning! I kept wondering about that. I think he just didn't get it, that all the while water level was rising, and just like a dam, the impact of the additional heavy water over a period of days was what was going to cause the failures, not how much wind they were ultimately going to get a couple days down the road. But engineers must have told him, right?
Do you know that between the time became a Cat 3 and the LA landfall, she had grown in size to a area roughly eight times larger than she started with on Friday? It was unreal.
I think there is the potential for to become a large hurricane, but not on that order of magnitude. To me, seemed like a 1000-year storm for landfall in the GOM. It isn't possible to compare other GOM storms to ; she was in a category all her own those last three days.
Well I'm surprised I feel ok about jumping in again and trying to keep learning about tracking and forecasting hurricanes. And has been interesting with her quirks.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Ok what is the deal with Fox news? they are as close to false news reporting as you can get.
#1 they are showing a guy in key west with 25 mph winds like its a hurricane there.
#2 they keep posting Alert "Rita hits florida with 85 mph winds.Now we all know this storm is nowhere close to hitting the keys with its center and if lucky they will get a gust half that.They keep pumping as hammering the keys which thankfully not.
#3 they are talking right now about the models and all the talk is about it may go to N.O. they just said 3 good models show it going there.I cannot find 1 MIND YOU 1 that shows this storm going there.
Yes everyone should watch it but they are so over hyping this what its doing to florida and N.O. its sick.
I can see the 15 models they are talking about and there are no 3 good models showing it going to N.O. and if they post that "rita hits Florida with 85 mph winds they should be ashamed of there reporting.
I mean to show a branch wiggle and say woah look at that is insane.
They are making people over react with fear.If Key west see's more then 60 mph winds i will be shocked and they are treating this like a 140 mph cane is hitting key west.
Good repoting i don't mind but hype is as bad as wishcasting.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Here's the 12Z link
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_m.shtml
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Yes, the news hasn't changed at all. Just the way its delivered. Remember Cronkite in Viet Nam? Buddy's came back and said "I was just there, and that's Not what went down." Some things never change 
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
Actually Psyber..Katrina was moving at 12 mph at landfall..forward speed increased in the 12 hours before ...
Sorry, i meant to indicate while it was building and i mixed my sentences hehe. Either way is a completely different beast than was, even though its going through the florida straights in a somewhat simular position.(You can already see the panic in places which honestly have extremely low chances of being hit like NO/Gulf Coast)
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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