Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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As I recall, three things to consider to understand storm strength:
* Winds, which are directly related to current central core strength.
* Size, which is completely independent of anything but size and windfield diameter.
* Storm surge, which is a combination of current central pressure and past central pressure.
It is storm surge which is most effected by a storm that was previously strong, since it often takes time for the surge to subside away from a storm when the pressure rises, just as it takes time for the surge to build when the pressure falls.
Hope this helps 
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WeatherNut
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I think with Isabel the angle at which it hit the coast was significant. Hurricanes very rarely take dead aim on the coast in those regions (NC, VA, MD). They are usually in the process of recurving. Isabel plowed straight into the coast and up the chesapeake making the surge worse. I also think was a good example of how powerful hurricanes can "bank up" water in addition to the predicted storm surge simply by prolonged high wind speed in the same direction as the coast. Of course, thats my observation...I'm no expert
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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The Force 2005
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So you see Margie, the faster the storm, the more it will intensify, cause it will not stay in one area over an extended period of time like . And the deep layer convergence is very warm.
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Convergence
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That doen't really make sense. There are some factors that can make one hurricane more destructive than another of similar intensity, like tornadoes or vortexes, but a max wind speed is a max wind speed, whether it's going up or down. In your case, Isabel was massive at landfall, and produced strong winds for a pretty long time.
It's really on a storm-by-storm basis, they're just too hard to compare.
edit: not again 
Edited by Convergence (Tue Sep 20 2005 07:06 PM)
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Ed in Va
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Interesting projected inland path for in the afternoon HPC...looks like she could reemerge in the Atlantic in about 7-8 days. Wonder if this will be another crazy storm like the one last year that looped back and hit someplace (FL?) a second time.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Thunderbird12
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Both and were storms that produced more substantial storm surge and damage than would normally be expected based on their landfall intensity. Both of those storms were much stronger at one time over the Gulf than they were at landfall. Some of the damage may be due to having once been stronger before landfall with respect to building up a storm surge, though it also makes a difference that both and were very large storms in size and both came in at basically a right-angle to the coastline. I don't remember the specifics of Isabel, though I believe it was also large in size. The size of the storm increases the duration that a single point will experience strong winds and increases the potential damage.
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Convergence
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Quote:
I think with Isabel the angle at which it hit the coast was significant. I also think was a good example of how powerful hurricanes can "bank up" water in addition to the predicted storm surge simply by prolonged high wind speed in the same direction as the coast. Of course, thats my observation...I'm no expert
I've done some work on wave models, specifically using Isabel data, that demonstrates that hurricanes can also produce enhanced wave heights and periods when they're moving at certain speeds and in a linear fashion, in a process called fetch-trapping. It's one of the reasons Isabel did so much coastal damage.
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lunkerhunter
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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RITA
SST - now in 30C but forecast to be in low to mid 29C's
SSHA - all below zero
HHC is moderate thru tomorrwow but then weakens.
data source
DTG.................. LAT........LON...ANALYS DTG..SSHA...SST.......Z26.....HHC
2005092015 ACT 23.80N 81.00W 2005092000 -0.005 30.118 65.299 17.365
2005092100 FOR 24.00N 83.10W 2005092000 -0.119 29.341 32.562 6.309
2005092112 FOR 24.30N 85.80W 2005092000 -0.021 29.725 84.143 21.230
2005092200 FOR 24.50N 88.30W 2005092000 -0.003 29.574 42.684 10.467
2005092212 FOR 24.50N 90.50W 2005092000 -0.129 29.370 37.129 8.644
2005092312 FOR 26.00N 94.00W 2005092000 -0.097 29.669 24.070 5.183
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Just a note - the 12Z is showing a very deep core on around shortly before it impacts the coast. I'm mentioning this becuase globals (except for ) rarely give tropical deep cores becuase they can't resolve them due to lack of detail in the runs.
Links --
Pressure loop: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
Cyclone phase: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05092012/18.html
--RC
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The Force 2005
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Ed,
Are you trying to say that could possibly exit the Atlantic and become tropical again?
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Kimberley Clark
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Yes, that was the son of .
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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We have 16,000 new residents in Southeast Texas because of . I know there are many more
in the Houston area. I am sure Houston is preparing for this storm as the projected path is closer to
them. We have a good evacuation plan in place here in case the track shifted north.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Is it me or does everyone else experiance a delay when receiving other post's to this forum?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Yes...probably most likely that it would go out to sea even if she does, but you never know.
Thanks to everyone for your answers on Isabel. Actually, the damage that I experienced was from downed trees, not surge. It seems like the energy from Isabel generated a number of micro bursts or mini tornadoes that seemed to be a carryover from her stronger status.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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The latest recon fix at 2007 UTC shows the pressure down to 973 mb, with flight-level winds of 89 kts in the NW quadrant.
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CoalCracker
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Understand the NOAA aircraft is flying recon. Does anyone know when the first model runs will reflect the input of this data? Seems to me we should have a little better handle on 's track once that info is digested.
My son, daughter-in-law, and one year old granddaughter live in NW Houston. Needless to say, I'm concerned.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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I see the 18Z intensity models are out. They are going NUTS with !
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
GFNI is up to 135kts - that is borderline Cat4/Cat5!
SHIPS, the normally conservative one, is up to 125kts
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WeatherNLU
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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I'd never wish anything on anyone, but I can only hope that this is a Texas event. It's been three weeks since , and I still have not been able to see my home. I want to go home! Now they have cancelled the re-entry (just to see, not stay) and they have issued the second mandatory evacuation of my home in the last three weeks. It's pretty bad when they issue another mandatory evacuation before you've returned from the first. They've said that a three inch rain of any kind, would put 4 feet of water back into my house. I can only imagine what any surge of any kind would do. Could someone please try to keep me updated via e-mail with anything that might be going on, including anything that looks as though the high might shift eastward quicker than expected.
You can e-mail me at:
hurrcane@bellsouth.net
I've got internet access, but it's dial-up and it's horrible. I can't access any of my normal sites, no loops or anything. Any updates, write-ups, whatever.....send to me.
Thanks!!!
Shawn
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Psyber
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Is it just me or does the infrared look like it's slowing? Maybe just looks that way because of all the growth...
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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I've always been kind of surprised that there are not more major, damaging storms in the Gulf. The water is warm and the recurving option is not there...it's going to hit somewhere.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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