ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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5pm is out and all about the same west at 14 100mph track about the same nothing changed really since 2pm.
Edited by ralphfl (Tue Sep 20 2005 04:52 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The latest advisory keeps the intensity at 85 knots, but increases the forecast intensity to 115 knots beginning in about 24 hours until landfall sometime between 72-96 hours. The forecast track is basically unchanged.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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A faster moving storm is not going to upwell as much water, no, but a storm of sufficient intensity is going to mix water over a large depth. For category 3/4 storms, that is about 70m in depth -- the waters over the central Gulf have not recovered from to that kind of depth, only to a near-normal value. This mixing occurs regardless of the storm's speed; it is a sole function of storm intensity and its influence on the underlying ocean.
Thus, it's not quite correct to say that because the storm is moving faster than , the recovery of the oceanic waters underneath the storm is not going to be a concern. It will be a concern and likely a limit upon the maximum intensity of the storm. Remember: was the exception rather than the norm; most storms do not come close to approaching their maximum potential intensity in the Gulf as a result of two factors: 1) shear and/or 2) upper oceanic heat content. Here, it's the latter that should play a role in limiting 's intensity -- likely to a more "manageable" cat 3/4 level than another monster.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.
Pressure is plummeting...
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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StormKrone
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 34
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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Watching CNN, they interrupted with breaking news that the is expecting to reach Cat 4 status by 2pm tomorrow..
Dee
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Shawn, My prayers will be with you. My parents live off of Dog River in Mobile, Alabama and they left for the storm. They are elderly and heart patients and owe over $200,000 on their home. They thought when they refinanced that the flood insurance would continue to be escrowed. Well, Mama received a renewal notice in May, 2005, called the insurance agent and his office told them that it was being paid out of their mortgage and not to worry about it. Their home owners insurance was being escrowed, however, their flood was not and for a measly $40.00, they have no insurance. They are living in a camper in their driveway. It is sad because they have 15 children, 40 plus grandchildren and in the double digits on great grandchildren, and their are so many memories that were drowned. Keep us folks here in the Central Gulf in your prayers also. It is amazing what the weather can do to a town. The redlights are still not working around my area of work, however, I have seen some very kindhearted and wonderful people working together around here. Where I am working, the first floor is gutted. We are 1/2 block from Water Street and the first floor got about 5 feet of water. I have to be thankful though and thanks to you Shawn for reminding me how much I have to be thankful for.
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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The way it went from TS to Cat2 in 3-4 hours, i'm not surprised that it could make Cat4. Lets just hope it doesn't slow down or a weak Cat4 might be a dream. 
In my nonstop meanderings, I found a webpage that shows alot of terminology we use here and has a very easy to understand demonstration:
Hurricane Demonstration
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Philippe is down to a TS and seems to be absorbing 97L; isnt slowing down, its expanding. The radar shows the eastern edge of the rain sheild not moving but the western edge progressing rather rapidly.
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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
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Hi all, Its been a bumpy ride this season! I am done with the hurricanes this year would someone please send out a memo  Other than the tornado warning in my broward county area we were fine. I actually took the kids and got out for an hour during the warning. We live in a manufactured home. I thought the tropics were quiet once left. But i see a few waves are out there??? Any chance for development in the coming days??? I heard that October was suppose to be busy. We will see.
Hope everyone fared well.
Jusforsean 
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Susan in Jupiter, FL
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
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Up here in Jupiter, FL, northern Palm Beach County, we had very occasional breezes, and minimal rain, maybe 1/4". We've had more rain in an hour of a thunderstorm!
We'll be praying for everyone in TX & LA.............I know the feeling of getting hit twice in a three-week period......experienced it last year with Francis and Jeanne at almost exactly the same time as this year.
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Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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i was wondering does this really look like a galveston hit? or could it go a little south and hit lake jackson freeport area? the reason is my friend lives in lake jackson and works for the brazoria county sheriffs and i was wondering if it could hit them too? im a little worried bout her right now. i havent heard from her since last week cause she has been so busy helping with victims in brazoria county. i need some input on this please. :?:
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Channel 9 in Orlando just reported that Key West had a gust of 102 mph. They are about 50 miles from the eye. Don't kill the messenger.........
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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We are 4 days from Texas now. The model range is from southern TX through western LA. It could hit anywhere along there, though the centerline is Galviston. If she's "anywhere" along the Texas coast, she'll probably be affected by this storm in some way or other.
*/me kills FireAng85*
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 20 2005 06:04 PM)
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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Nogaps seems to be way to the sw almost in Brownsville.
At the rate its moving, could get into the Gulf and stay further south as the ridge would still be in place?
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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does anyone have that link too the worse case scenario for galveston or houston that was on here yesterday? i need that link.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Latest recon shows the pressure down to 970 mb.
Here is the link to the Houston/Galveston "worst-case" scenario info:
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/hurricane/index.html
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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thank you so much!
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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Seems the current track is taking it west of Galveston, possibly Matagorda Bay. They seem pretty confident in the track.
However our area is still in the cone. What are the chances it could go more east? Is it the speed of the storm that is affecting
where it will make landfall? I know the track may be determined by what the high does. Most here are getting gas, water, etc. just in
case. Also, what are we looking at intensity wise?
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Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
Loc: NC
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Quote:
does anyone have that link too the worse case scenario for galveston or houston that was on here yesterday? i need that link.
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/hurricane/index.html
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Starting to see a better defined eye on both radar and satellite, though the convection on the west side of the system is not nearly as deep as the convection on the east side. This thing could really take off if it can maintain a closed eyewall.
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