Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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movement wnw-nw.....definite over last 2 hours ....
i'm a novice...but it sure looks like it's a direction, and NOT a wobble...which changes everything....
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Beaumont, TX
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Are they pretty sure of the track? I know the high will move some but could it slide even further east? People here are not
evacuating (except Sabine Pass...storm surge potential). But everyone is paying attention...just incase. Does look like on
the current track forecast we will have rain and wind.
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Clark
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Right now, there is pretty high confidence in the forecast track. But, keep an eye on it nonetheless.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Quote:
movement wnw-nw.....definite over last 2 hours ....
i'm a novice...but it sure looks like it's a direction, and NOT a wobble...which changes everything....
A degree north with a jog IS NOT NW let alone wnw.I guess we are going to go though this until the 5pm comes out and states otherwise.
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Thunderbird12
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Loc: Oklahoma
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There is some dry mid-level air oozing into the northern Gulf ahead of ... that may play a role in initiating a weakening trend if it does not get shoved out of the way.
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amonty
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Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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I don't think it will because all of the other 'cane's i've watched this year have all just plowed through the dry air. I think it may just impede development a little bit. IMO
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cmiller324
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To me(I'm a major rookie at this) it looks like she is starting to stairstep. But that is just my 2 cents worth. I just hope the steps don't get too big. SE Louisiana doesn't need another. For that matter no one needs another.
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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Clark,
Why is lightning such a phenomenoum in hurricanes when it is built around and surrounded by thunderstorms?
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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As of 5am, the storm was at 24.3N
As of the last recon, the storm was at 24.3 North
There might be some wobbing going on, but the storm has been heading pretty close to true due west.
The storm may turn, the storm may not, maybe even the storm will fizzle out (though I'm thinking no)
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Here are the longest lived Cat 5s for the Atlantic since the start of the reconnaissance era (1944). These times are based on the six hourly advisories issued by or .
Atlantic
ALLEN (1980) 3.00 days
DOG (1950) 2.50 days
ISABEL (2003) 1.75 days
DAVID (1979) 1.75 days
MITCH (1998) 1.75 days
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Might be just a wobble northward. Nothing to write home about yet. It may respond just slightly to a slight weakness in the ridge over Arkansas, but that is largely accounted for in the track. There is no reason to believe that the forecast track is in error at this point in time, particularly given how well the observed motion and forecast motion match.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Lee-Delray
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Is the dry air part of the ridge that's eroding? If so, it would have no effect (right?).
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Lightning isn't a big phenomenon seen with tropical cyclones because the conditions conducive to its development generally are not found within tropical convection. It's not my expertise, but simply put -- that's the reason.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Beaumont, TX
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Would this be a rare event if reaches Cat 5 after another storm that reached Cat 5 (Katrina) was in the Gulf?
Has this ever happened before, one really strong storm following another into the Gulf within a few weeks of each other?
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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher
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Speaking of cat 5, I looked at the latest recon and it would seem that if one adjusts the flight level wind you would get a 156+ figure for surface winds.. The temp differential is larger than Kat's when it peaked, I believe. So I would guess this thing is cat 5 as we speak. As for maintaining that strength--history is against is making landfall with that sort of intensity, but there are UNUSUAL conditions this year so all bets are off. btw a question: has there every been such a short gap between storms that have reached cat 5?
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StormKrone
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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Quote:
Would this be a rare event if reaches Cat 5 after another storm that reached Cat 5 (Katrina) was in the Gulf?
Watching FOX and the guy from Accuweather.com is saying that is a CAT 5 already...
their site says: "AccuWeather.com Meteorologists believe has become a Cat 5 hurricane. "
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Pete,
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Hi!
I am a new user and I have been looking for a site like this since last year.. I am so happy to find it. I live in St. Petersburg, FL .
I was wondering if someone could post a link to a site that would allow you to see the acctual ridge of high pressure ( if there is such a site), I also see the wobble and just wanted to see this high pressure area. I look at Accuweather and NOAA, but Accuweather is not always updated with their sattelite photos. Thanks everyone!
Sincerely, Christine
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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Not to mention and Emily, which were both borderline 5's at one point or another. This season has pretty much destroyed the idea that the 2004 season was about the worst it could be.
Don't take this the wrong way, but this year has been incredibly exciting in terms of meteorology.
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bobbutts
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Loc: New Hampshire
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Who knows if it will persist but when I look at the loops they really remind me of how made a right hand turn. Maybe effects of coriolis force or upper level winds on the storm since she is so intense?
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Cat 5s are rare, so, A rare even followed by a rare event.... is .... even more rare. (Very Rare on the Encounter table) However we only have a fairly short timeframe, climatologicly speaking, to work with.
There could have been more Cat 5 storms before the 1960's and unless a ship or hurricane was unlucky enough to be in the way of it, we wouldn't know.
I don't think there's been 2 cat 5's in the atlantic basin within a month of each other in the last 40 years or so. But I'm sure the pacific basin has them happen from time to time (wow that was a convoluted sentence...).
Also, since 95, we've been in an active period in the atlantic. So, who knows, maybe we'll be unlucky enough to have this become a more common event for the next 20 years or so.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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