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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Raymond]
      #55641 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:56 AM

Worst would be Houston/Galveston. But a Cat 5 could affect the whole coast, much like Carla did in 61.

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Clark
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Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Random Chaos]
      #55642 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:56 AM

No eyewall cycle appears imminent and given the current representation of the storm on microwave imagery, none appears to be in the offing for at least 12hr -- and probably longer. The storm is very symmetric on this morning's microwave offerings with no signs of a concentric eyewall present on any of the shots. There *may* be the makings of what could eventually congeal into an outer eyewall, but this feature is more of a band in nature right now and only extends about 25% of the way around the storm (and is broken at that). An eyewall cycle is coming, but not right now. Recon will tell the tale later this morning, I believe.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Clark]
      #55644 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:02 AM

What intensity are we looking at for landfall? Also, how big will the storm be? Also, do you think she will continue with this
fast pace or slow down any? I


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Margie... [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #55645 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:02 AM

Rick,

How did you fair with Katrina?


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Clark]
      #55646 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:03 AM

I think an ERC is inevitable at some point. The big question is the timing of when it happens and how the storm rebounds from it. If it weakens somewhat, how much will it be able to recover further west in the Gulf and will the timing favor an intensifying or weakening storm as it approaches the coast? I guess we'll find out.

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


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my boat [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55647 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:06 AM

went through the top of the covered pier...10,000 damage...but insured.

people are getting gas around here. fearful of the fact that the GOM has LOTS of drilling platforms...lots of them...and NONE of them are built past a category 3 threshhold....

look for another spike in gas prices, and long lines. anyone along the coast OUGHT to gas up today....


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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #55648 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:06 AM

Beaumont,

The storm in diameter is probally a little larger as compared to Katrina at the same point in LAT/LONG. It has been reported that the storm now covers over 400 Square miles. Now I don't know if that answers your question or not, but also believe that Rita will maintain a highend CAT 4 intensity prior to landfall. There was some suggestions that the shear out of the SW might be injected into the storm, but as of right now, doesn't look like anything is going to impede Rita.


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Wingman51
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Off Topic ??? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55649 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:10 AM

A question for the Experts while Rita is in the Gulf - - I've been watching the destruction of Philippe and I am curious about the chance of the southern end of that energy breaking off and developing into something we need to be concerned about??

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The Force 2005
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Re: my boat [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #55650 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:10 AM

Glad to hear that you yourself made it through, material things can always be replaced. I believe you should tell the residents of Texas what to expect and to heed the warnings, as you have first hand exeperiance from the most destructive storm in our history.

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emackl
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Phillipe? [Re: Clark]
      #55651 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:11 AM

Sorry to get off Rita but what is Phillipe doing. I know the NHC mentioned that the GFS was keeping part of him around in the early am run. Now I'm seeing it from other models turning south,

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

The 06 GFS has it turning back south also:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05092106/3.html

What is going on? I thought he was out of here?


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The Force 2005
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Re: Off Topic ??? [Re: Wingman51]
      #55652 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:11 AM

Do you mean Katrina?

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oil trader
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Track [Re: Clark]
      #55653 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:13 AM

Does anyone has a huge disagreement with the NHC path forecast and landfall point at this juncture?

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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Clark]
      #55654 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:14 AM

Clark,

Have a question.

What causes hurricanes to go through a ERC?


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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Track [Re: oil trader]
      #55655 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:16 AM

If I lived along the TX Gulf coast, I would leave now. It is better to be safe than sorry. Right now you have to assume the worst and hope for the best. Why put yourself and possibly your family lives at risk. Considering you have a family of course.

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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55656 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:17 AM

Thanks for the information. Size of the storm matters. If it makes landfall where it is supposed to we will have some wind and rain,
possibly tornadoes, from the outer bands. I know size of the storm can matter as much as intensity because it will effect a
broader area. Everyone is stocking up here...just in case. Hank Frank, looks like you called it right a couple of weeks ago when you
said Texas might get a storm.


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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #55657 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:20 AM

What everyone fails to remember, the size of the storm really does matter. Everyone gets transfixed on the center, but it is the size of the storm that creates the huge storm surge that comes with the most powerful storms. They can push an unbelievable amount of water for greater distances and time. This is where peolple make the fatal mistake of sometimes choosing to stay behind to guard their property.

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


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what to expect.... [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55658 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:22 AM

at landfall, Katrina's eyewall flattened out, and it covered the entire coastline of Mississippi. the storm surge was 35 feet...it was 5 ft higher at my marina than when George hit a few years ago...and George was much closer.

Katrina maintained cat 5 strength for quite a while.....all along the coast....for the first 1500 yards....either nothing, or just slabs....a few toilets...etc...(Mississippi).....

I am hearing of report after report of people missing that elected to "ride it out"....an engineer here showed me a picture of a neighborhood miles inland....total devastation. he showed me his friends house....and then said...see that slab over there?.....they stayed....an middle aged nice couple who thought they were safe. never found.

that story could be repeated, I'm sure. impossible to determine the death toll. interesting that the government will NOT really talk about that...

anyone who does not get inland at least 5-6 miles...to avoid the storm surge...is risking their lives. period.

the surge was estimated at 35 ft. to get an idea...go look at a telephone pole...and imagine the water that high....(at landfall).....

Storms are getting stronger. global warming has risen the temperatures about .5 degrees world wide...(1/2 degree)...and some scientists are saying that is more than enough to cause these canes to be so much more destructive.

cat 5 storms are no long 100 year events....for now...they are monthly....


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emackl
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Re: Off Topic ??? [Re: Wingman51]
      #55659 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:24 AM

Wingman 51, That's what I'm wondering too. The new GFS runs are hinting at that. Time will tell I guess. I'm not good at diagnosing the weather patterns. I don't know what will happen if he turns south or a piece of him does.

Edited by emackl (Wed Sep 21 2005 10:26 AM)


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Philadelphia
Re: what to expect.... [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #55660 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:27 AM

Great post.

Everyone from the GAL/HOU area should take these wanring seriously.


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flarrfan
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Spring Hill FL
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Raymond]
      #55661 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:32 AM

Quote:

Hi,
I´m a storm tracker and meteorologist from Germany. F
I have a question: Given that Rita heads for Texas. What would be the "best" location to make landfall there and what the "worst"?




Worst obviously is the major metro area of Galveston/Houston, with its important port, oil facilities, and two million plus people. Best scenario would be a SW deviation from current forecast track, bring it in about midway between Corpus Christi and Brownsville. Aside from vacation homes and condos along the narrow South Padre barrier island, there is almost nothing on the mainland aside from large cattle ranches. One of the counties south of CC has, per my atlas, a population of less than 500 people in an area about half the size of Harris County (Houston). So wishcasters need to keep that high pressure ridge in place and steer the storm west without any north turns, for the least damage and destruction.


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