ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
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what big city? i don't see a "big" city in its path at this time its not showing that?
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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There are indications and the models are picking this up as well, to stall the system inland. hope this answers your question.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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There is nothing in the way of to slow her down (at least until she lands) other than her natural progression to start to loop a bit more to the north.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 25
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One thread that got lost back a little while ago seems very germane at this point: the question of size. Everyone agrees 's size had a crucial impact on storm surge, but is hard to find a lucid discussion of what factors influence cyclone size. Why were Andrew and 1935 Labor Day "little" cat 5 storms in contrast to which was a very "big" cat 4. seems to be trending towards the latter scenario, but I don't know why. Any guidance for the perplexed?
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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We had flooding from Carla in this area (our Midcounty area).
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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I don't want to predict in this forum, but it has been well stated, the cities of Houston/Galveston. Now I'm not saying that these are the cities in the "Bullseye", but worst case scenario cities as was N.O. That is all I was trying to refer to.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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A dropsonde into the eyewall a little while ago indicated a pressure of 948 mb, so the actual central pressure is going to be less than that.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Sep 21 2005 03:53 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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Carla hit around Matagorda Bay and the whole coast was affected by the storm. It will depend on the size and intensity of
Rita.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
...the question of size...Any guidance for the perplexed?
Yes the upper-level anti-cyclonic motion allows for a lot of outflow, and this allows the windfield to expand. There are probably other details that I am missing due to lack of knowledge but hopefully one of the board mods can respond.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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I saw that also, but I was concerned that it would have the potential to stall before then. I don't see that happening either, but, as you know, other factors can change things in a heartbeat. It might not be a bad thing for the midwest- they are parched right now. However, be careful what you wish for! It will probably be flooded for several days because of the stall- I just wanted to find out if there was a possiblity that the Gulf Coast would bear the brunt of it instead of the mainland. Rain is really needed in the mainland areas we are discussing- just not the quantity that the stall might bring. Thanks for your input!
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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S. E. Texas....flat, flat, flat. That about sums it up. Some areas prone to flooding.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Another dropsonde just measured 935 mb. Since the mean wind was over 100 knots, the dropsonde was not into the center and the actual central pressure is likely lower than that.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 211600Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1517Z
B. 24 DEG 11 MIN N
85 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2522 M
D. 65 KT
E. 070 DEG 27 NM
F. 180 DEG 137 KT
G. 075 DEG 09 NM
H. 934 MB
I. 12 C/ 3056 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 07 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX18A OB 07
MAX FL WIND 137 KT E QUAD 1516Z
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I posted earlier this morning that I thought had more of a spiral shape compared to the big donut that turned into, but now is starting to take on the symmetric donut shape of a very intense hurricane. Based on the improvement in symmetry the last couple of hours and a fair amount of lightning in the eyewall, it still seems to be intensifying.
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Scrappy
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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So does anyone want to go out on a limb and predict..
Edit - let's not start a prediction service please. We'll let the Mets do the predicting. 
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Wed Sep 21 2005 04:36 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Yeah I just saw it too.
Well all the numbers say solid Cat 4, not a Cat 5 yet. Sat presentation seems stronger. Well waiting to see what shows in the NW quad.
So far a drop of 54mb in the past 30 hours.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Wed Sep 21 2005 04:51 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The plane recently reported 152 knot winds in the northern eyewall at about 10000 feet and 125 knot winds at the surface.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Sep 21 2005 04:28 PM)
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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As you know, size doesn't necessarily matter- and it's moving fast. Scary thing for our country- it doesn't matter where you live.
Edit the prediction game.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Wed Sep 21 2005 05:42 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
The plane recently reported 152 knot winds in the northern eyewall at about 10000 feet and 125 knot winds at the surface.
Well that is getting very close to Cat 5 - and as all along, the winds in this storm increasing before the central pressure drops. Very interesting. I wonder what the call will be at the intermediate advisory. Guess there'll be a special advisory soon to mention the recon results.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Air Force up and on the way!
URNT11 KNHC 211631
97779 16244 40295 86800 30500 07021 08062 /3202
40615
RMK AF300 1418A OB 01
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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