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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Tazmanian93
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Re: what to expect.... [Re: pryord1]
      #55733 - Wed Sep 21 2005 12:37 PM

Could be just my eyes or a slight wobble, but speeding up the visible it appears that she hopped just a tad bit N of W ?? And I know, she may do that alot from here on out.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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The Force 2005
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Re: what to expect.... [Re: pryord1]
      #55734 - Wed Sep 21 2005 12:40 PM

That is not a true statement. Size does matter. The size of Katrina was large, and she came with an extensive storm surge. The larger the storm, the largewr the wave action and storm is larger. Remember, the wind field that surrounds the storm is large, so it affects a greater amount of area as well as producing a larger storm surge for a greater area of land.

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Thunderbird12
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Re: vortex message [Re: Margie]
      #55735 - Wed Sep 21 2005 12:41 PM

A recent dropsonde into the southern eyewall measured 160 knots at 925 mb, which is not far above the ground since the surface pressure of the drop was 937 mb. The next dropsonde measured a surface pressure 928 mb with 35 knot surface winds, so the actual central pressure is probably a little lower than that. I don't know if there has been a really good central pressure fix yet.

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The Force 2005
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Re: vortex message *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55736 - Wed Sep 21 2005 12:43 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Storm Hunter
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Re: vortex message [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55737 - Wed Sep 21 2005 12:50 PM

have to say this is the best pictures i have seen on sat of a cane ever.... i thought Katrina was amazing... this is up there with her.
She's on the Loop Current now i think... based on what i see.


High Speed Floater (RSO)

Closer up Shot
Rita Close up

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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cmiller324
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Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: ralphfl]
      #55739 - Wed Sep 21 2005 12:54 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I found one here: http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp





thanks nice map.If it stays the way it is that will miss many rigs lets pray it stays south like the track has right now.


Thanks for that post,.




Missing rigs to the south by 40-50 miles is not enough. I work for Pride Offshore and we have 5 rigs in the High Island area and a few in West Cameron. They have all be evacuated. In Katrina, we lost one of our smaller rigs. It isn't looking to good for the 5 we have in that area. 40-50 miles away from the center to the N/E and your talking about major waves in access of 30+ feet.Many of the structures in that area are old and falling apart. Taht rigzone site only shows drilling/workover contractor facilities. There are many more permanant structures in that area that are not on that map. It will not be good for the western Gulf this time around.

Edited by cmiller324 (Wed Sep 21 2005 12:55 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: vortex message [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #55741 - Wed Sep 21 2005 12:57 PM

NOAA3 is going back through the eywall... or may have just done it... see what the next fix or drop gives.

if i am decoding right... the eyewall pressure was 939mb

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Jeffmidtown
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FYI [Re: cmiller324]
      #55742 - Wed Sep 21 2005 12:57 PM

Just for informational prposes, since Katrina, the Hurricane Hunter planes have been relocated to Dobbins ARB here in Atlanta, but since there was a report from the vortex, it looks like that they were able to fix any gremlins that they may have had.

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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Margie
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Re: vortex message [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55743 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:05 PM

Quote:

The next dropsonde measured a surface pressure 928 mb with 35 knot surface winds, so the actual central pressure is probably a little lower than that. I don't know if there has been a really good central pressure fix yet.




Well that is 6 more mbar since the 10:17am (CDT) reading...in about two hours.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
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Re: vortex message [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #55744 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:05 PM

all kinds of crazy crap on the board today. just keep in mind that Katrina maxed out close in to the coast, and we're probably 60hrs from landfall... so the storm will have plenty of time to go through all sorts of eyewall cycles and probably end up in the 3/4 range. the heat content in the western gulf is high, but not nearly as high as what it's getting right now. now, will the storm have a large cumulative surge and really large wind field? yeah, probably. i will address some of the ideas i've seen floating around that look erroneous, though.
don't think the killing potential of this storm will be anywhere near Katrina. people have had a good dose of coverage on that storm and don't want to deal with a similar situation themselves. being stuck in a major disaster zone is no fun, and even if there's someone foolhardy enough to want to experience the storm, probably not too many folks want to deal w/ the aftermath.
official track is right into matagorda bay, which is sort of a 'gap' in real estate and damage value potential. up the coast near houston the potential is a lot higher.. down the coast near corpus it's higher. the stretch between has victoria and some smaller towns, but not more than a couple hundred thousand people that can be affected the worst. my landfall point is closer to houston/galveston, so hope i'm wrong. i'm sure port lavaca and matagorda residents aren't fond of my preference, but it's really better overall if the storm doesn't directly impact houston.
the GFS and euro are slowing the inland progression of the storm now. i'm not sure how that will verify, but it's a multiple-run thing now. all of east texas and the arklatex region would be in for tremendous rainfall were this to occur... it's a worst-case post-landfall scenario.
hearing joe b comment on this possibly being the strongest hurricane to hit tx.. it would have to beat the 1880 indianola storm which was borderline or possibly a cat 5. i don't suspect it will be that strong. closer to carla, possibly a little bit weaker, seems more feasible. i don't think texas coastal waters will support a cat 5, and the storm will probably be weakening when it comes in, unless it's on the upswing of an eyewall cycle.
HF 1705z21september


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Psyber
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Re: FYI [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #55745 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:07 PM

Quote:

Just for informational prposes, since Katrina, the Hurricane Hunter planes have been relocated to Dobbins ARB here in Atlanta, but since there was a report from the vortex, it looks like that they were able to fix any gremlins that they may have had.




Those guys are unsung heros. You couldn't pay me enough to strap into a 20 year old plane and fly through a rotating 150mph wall of water.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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Cash
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Re: vortex message [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55746 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:07 PM

Thunderbird12, where are you getting the information regarding the 160kt (!) wind at 925mb and the 928mb central pressure?

That wind measurement would translate well into Cat 5 status and make Rita one of the strongest storms ever in the central gulf.

Cash


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Thunderbird12
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Re: vortex message [Re: Cash]
      #55747 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:12 PM

The report came from one of the dropsondes. Keep in mind that wind speed just above the ground are often much higher than the surface winds and even higher than the normal flight-level winds we see reported. The dropsonde data can be found here, along with info on how to interpret the reports:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

Unfortunately, they don't archive the reports at that address, so you can only see the last report.


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scottsvb
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Re: FYI [Re: Psyber]
      #55748 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:14 PM

Rita continues on path to the west towards the Tx coast. Making my 3 day forecast its pretty simple one as the models all agree a path from Lake Charles LA- just south of Galveston. Im alittle worried about Galveston. Although there is no relationship in the key west of 38 and the 1900 Gal storm but something tells me that since she went just south of key west she will do the same to Galveston but it will be close and should no matter what get at least huricane force winds. Also I feel LA will be the florida of last year so I wouldnt doubt it going as far east as Lake Charles. Anyways with some model support (even though Im on the right) I will go with this as my forecast landfall, Just south of Gal-Lake Charles.
Anyways nothing really intiment anywhere else. Will keep an eye on the mid-upperlow just NW of Philippe, it might in a couple days want to come down to the surface and head towards the Se Bahamas by the weekend. Anyways just another thought.

scottsvb


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Thunderbird12
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Re: vortex message [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55749 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:16 PM

So far, the highest winds from the dropsondes at the usual flight levels that I have seen have been 160 knots at 850 mb and 144 knots at 700 mb. Both of those would typically correspond to about 130 kts at the surface. I'm not sure how NHC would reduce the 925 mb report I mentioned earlier.

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WeatherNut
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Re: vortex message [Re: HanKFranK]
      #55750 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:19 PM

I've also noticed a big difference w/ Katrina...size of the eye. When Katrina finished the first ERC the eye was huge which is systemic of an annular hurricane. This allows a storm to more closely approach its maximum potential (ref Isabel, Ivan, Frances at cat5...all had very large eye diameter) as well as larger time frame for the eye to "contract" and pressure to fall...thus not as many ERCs and slower weakening. Note that Katrina only had 1 ERC in the gulf which resulted in the huge eye and did not go through another one. It will be interesting to see what happens after the first ERC and if we get a larger eye as a result with Rita...IMO I dont see this happening

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Ed in Va
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Re: FYI [Re: scottsvb]
      #55751 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:20 PM

Scott,

Is the upper level low what is showing at 25/65:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
Do you have any model links on where it is heading?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Thunderbird12
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Re: vortex message [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55752 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:24 PM

AF dropsonde into the eye just found a pressure of 922 mb.

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Psyber
Storm Tracker


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Re: vortex message [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55753 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:28 PM

I hope that that is at like 10000 feet or something

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


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Re: vortex message [Re: Psyber]
      #55754 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:32 PM

Psyber,

Regarding the 922 reading, the decoding key at the Hurricane Hunter site shows that the reading was at sea level.

PART ALPHA (A)
Identifier: 99 – Indicator for data at the surface level follows
Identifier: PoPoPo – Indicator for pressure of specified levels in whole millibar (thousands digit omitted)


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