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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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The Force 2005
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: wxman007]
      #56102 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:31 AM

I would be very surprised if the NHC or the Vortex doesn't show the increase in wind speed to match the MB drop to 898 to at least 185MPH.

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gk
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Re: Miami Winds [Re: danielw]
      #56103 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:32 AM

I am currently in Miami, just stepped outside and the winds now are about the same they were yesterday or a little stronger when Rita was in the striats. It's as if she is a vacuum sucking the wake in behind her.

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Hugh
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: wxman007]
      #56104 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:33 AM

Quote:


Yes, that is a track shift slighly more east/north. I didn't hear what the intensity would be, but we will find out in a few minutes anyway.
We are due for a vortex...overdue in fact...I am not sure if there has been an equipment problem in the recon aircraft (which has happened a lot with this storm) or if the latest recons are being "held" until the advisory comes out...(oh, I forgot...NHC promised they didn't do that...LOL).




It seems like they put the advisories out five minutes BEFORE the recon this season - which has always baffled me - why not schedule the recon flights to arrive so that they have the info in time to put it in the new advisory and have the advisory issued on time?

Looking at the IR... I'm not sure I want to see the recon anyway. Why has there been so much aircraft trouble with Rita anyway? Just a wicked coincidence?

Well while I typed this the advisory was issued. Looking at the Forecast portion winds are now 150 kts, which is up to about 172 mph by my math.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:35 AM)


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bobbutts
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Clark]
      #56105 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:34 AM

Quote:

Because generally, there is no need for anything higher. Many storms don't even reach category 5, with the damage being so severe from such winds that the distinction between 150mph and 180mph does not warrant an entirely new categorization on the Saffir-Simpson scale.




Wouldn't the stronger winds and lower pressure make for perhaps a larger surge worth mentioning even if the wind damage is the same?. If the surge is say 30'+ then the cat 5's 18'+ seems like it's misleadingly low. Katrina hit as a cat 4 and probably had double the high end of the 13-18' surge Saffir Simpson lists for cat 4. And IMO any scale of anything should include all the possible values. I think the weather channel at least used to quantify impact of winds, surge, and inland flooding seperately. This seems more appropriate and if they want to apply an overall value they can come up with some kind of equation to combine the three.


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wxman007
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56106 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:34 AM

Quote:

I would be very surprised if the NHC or the Vortex doesn't show the increase in wind speed to match the MB drop to 898 to at least 185MPH.




It takes about 6-8 hrs for winds to fully respond to pressure falls...so it might take a few more hours for the winds to spin up to their maximum.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Ryan
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Random Chaos]
      #56107 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:35 AM

i disagreee chaos, i think Galveston is in trouble, i know if i lived in Texas i'd be on my way to Huntsville. I think LA will get heavy rain and possible hurricane force wind gusts causing widespread power outages andmoderate flooding, i am not expectign a direct LA landfall


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--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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gk
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56108 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:36 AM

I would agree based on the expansion of the wind field, current wind speeds are increasing throughout Florida, 10 to 15 kts, I know they are not much but they are behind the storm and in a somewhat weak quadrant.

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The Force 2005
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: wxman007]
      #56109 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:36 AM

Well if Jim Cantore is in Texas right now , then it is going to be a huge hit by Rita.

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stevie
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: wxman007]
      #56110 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:37 AM

Jason, in your best guess and experience do you think Galveston is going to get a direct hit. I havent evacuated yet, probably leave in the am. Wife and kids evacuated to Centerville.

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Thunderbird12
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56111 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:39 AM

The next AF plane was supposed be in there around 06Z (2 am ET). Unless there is a NOAA plane still in there to do a center fix, it will be awhile before the next recon.

Latest SHIPS model brings the intensity to 155 kts in 12 hours, but then substantially weakens the storm down to around 115 kts before landfall.


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The Force 2005
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: stevie]
      #56112 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:40 AM

Steve, let me say this to you. Is it worth it to you by not leaving? I beleive that GAL is on the hit list.

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gk
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56113 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:41 AM

I know if a hurricane was come in my general direction and Jim happened to show up I'd leave!!!! Devistation seems to follow him.

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wxman007
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: stevie]
      #56115 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:41 AM

Matters not if it takes a direct hit...if it hits anywhere from Galveston to about 75 miles west of there, then there will be tremendous damage and surge. (Katrina had 10-12 foot surges 60 miles away from the center, and Dennis had 8 foot surges 150 miles from the landfall point!)

My advice? Leave at first light, if not sooner.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Hugh
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Rita with winds now near 175! [Re: wxman007]
      #56116 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:42 AM

Quote:


It takes about 6-8 hrs for winds to fully respond to pressure falls...so it might take a few more hours for the winds to spin up to their maximum.





Well we have our answer Jason.. the 11pm ET advisory is out. Winds are 175 with gusts to 215 and the pressure is down to 897, making Rita the strongest hurricane of the season thusfar (who would have thought anyone would say that after Katrina), based upon both pressure and wind (tie). The WU graphic says West movement at 9 mph but the marine advisory/forecast says WNW or 280 degrees at 8kt.

Looking back at the storm history, Rita was a 70 mph tropical storm exactly 24 hours ago... an increase of 105 mph in 24 hours, and a pressure drop of 93 MB. UNBELIEVABLE... if people had not predicted it two days ago, that is. Downright frightening in any case.

Update to add this comment:
If you're in Galveston still... get in your car. The longer you wait the longer the line of cars will be. The number of storms of this intensity to have existed in the Gulf of Mexico is exactly two, and we all know what Katrina did.

Forecast is now calling for a landfall with 135 kt winds... that's 155.25 mph, on the threshhold of cat 5, after a peak in 12 hours of 180 (155 kts).

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:47 AM)


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satellite steve
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Re: Miami Winds [Re: gk]
      #56117 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:42 AM

After watching Rita pass south of the Fl peninsula yest I thought the rain here in E central Fl would improve quickly - Wrong- now just under 5 inches of rain her and another heavy band oveerhead - As Rita moves she continues to expand at about the same rate - so we are still feeling the effects now 24 hrs later

Scary impressive how big she's gotten and how fast


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The Force 2005
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56118 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:42 AM

All of these models and what to think of what is going to happen. Can't believe it, I still think on the verge of a high CAT4 upon landfall. All indications are there.

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Terra
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: stevie]
      #56119 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:42 AM

Quote:

Jason, in your best guess and experience do you think Galveston is going to get a direct hit. I havent evacuated yet, probably leave in the am. Wife and kids evacuated to Centerville.




Let me just comment that everyone I know that stayed for Katrina (even those not directly in New Orleans) said never again... I left, and cannot imagine how horrible it must have been to ride the storm out. I wouldn't want to imagine that... If you have the means to go, by all means go... Clearlake is the south side of Houston, so it'll still suck for you if you stay. Even if the track shifts... better safe than sorry.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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danielwAdministrator
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Recon and Buoy Data [Re: stevie]
      #56121 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:44 AM

Computer problems again tonight. No buoy data being transmitted. "Can you hear me now?" is part of the problem.

Again...the 0230Z Recon Flight is not airborne. I don't know if they are having electronic problems or why they are late.

New Advisory stats are probably extrapolated. Not hard to do with Rita....she keeps going and going.

Buoy 42001-Mid Gulf Buoy reported a 22 ft wave height in the 4:50 PM CDT report. That was the last report.

The CMAN stations are reporting. At least most of the FL CMANs are.


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Terra
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Re: Rita with winds now near 175! [Re: Hugh]
      #56122 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:44 AM

Quote:

Looking back at the storm history, Rita was a 70 mph tropical storm exactly 24 hours ago... an increase of 105 mph in 24 hours, and a pressure drop of 93 MB. UNBELIEVABLE... if people had not predicted it two days ago, that is. Downright frightening in any case.




Correction... it was 110 mph 24-hours ago, with a pressure of 965. Your numbers had to be from 48-hours ago.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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stevie
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56123 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:45 AM

No, its not worth staying, I have never seen this many people evacuate. It took my family 12 hours to travel 120 miles north towards Dallas. Im really afraid of being stuck out on the freeway though

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