F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 263 (Idalia) , Major: 263 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 263 (Idalia) Major: 263 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | >> (show all)
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56125 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:45 AM

AF300 is still out there..(i think)... 306 is back at base now.... near ATL.... don't see any NOAA planes up....

I know AF300 has had problems this year... and i think the plane is one of the older ones too.... (based on data format)

NOAA9 last report was at :
OBS 26
UZNT13 KWBC 220125

Latest AF obs i have:

URNT11 KNHC 220038
97779 00344 50295 8481/ 70100 12015 6573/ /5762
RMK AF300 1418A Rita OB 26
LAST REPORT


URNT11 KNHC 220041
97779 21504 40256 87908 30500 06051 09098 /3085
40545
RMK AF300 1418A Rita OB 20

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:47 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: bobbutts]
      #56126 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:47 AM

Remember that wind speed is not the only signif facor in determining surge - more water and waves are pushed up by long fetches over open water and how fast it piles up against a coastline depends critically on the slope of the beach underwater and the shape of the shoreline

Katrina was particularly bad because lots of water was pushed w by the winds n of the storm into a nice v shaped area above the MIss river delta and s of the Ala'Miss/La gulf coast


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Rita with winds now near 175! [Re: Terra]
      #56127 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:50 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Looking back at the storm history, Rita was a 70 mph tropical storm exactly 24 hours ago... an increase of 105 mph in 24 hours, and a pressure drop of 93 MB. UNBELIEVABLE... if people had not predicted it two days ago, that is. Downright frightening in any case.




Correction... it was 110 mph 24-hours ago, with a pressure of 965. Your numbers had to be from 48-hours ago.




OOps, looked on the wrong line! Sorry about that. Still, a 68mb drop in 24 hours and a 93 mb drop in 48 is unbelievable.

ETA: Public advisory says movement is toward the WEST. Marine Advisory says the movement is toward the WEST-NORTHWEST OR 280 degrees. This kind of conflicting informing is dangerous.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:53 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
gk
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
Re: Miami Winds [Re: satellite steve]
      #56129 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:50 AM

Take a look at the band coming on shore in flagler/st. johns/duval counties (home). That is an example of how big how fast.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: satellite steve]
      #56130 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:51 AM

Jim Cantorre on TWC reported that Galveston would not have the surge problems that NO had because of the shallowness of the gulf by Galveston vs NO. He said Galveston would have more waves and beach erosion problems.

--------------------
Marie

Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: ohioaninmiss]
      #56132 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:54 AM

today is the aniversarry of the N.E. hurricane of 1938, and we are worrying about anothing major system..thats just dandy

what did people answer on the poll, or i guess my qiestion is who answered Stan???

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #56133 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:54 AM

Ob #26 was the last report for AF300 (Ob #20 was transmitted after that, but actually came beforehand). According to the recon POD, the next plane is scheduled to be in the storm at 05Z.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: satellite steve]
      #56135 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:55 AM

Steve,

Take this for what it is worht. Dr. Lyons just said that Rita will hit the Texas coast at 155+ upon landfall. Any other information you need to make a life and death decision, not to scare you, but think of your family.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: stevie]
      #56136 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:55 AM

Quote:

No, its not worth staying, I have never seen this many people evacuate. It took my family 12 hours to travel 120 miles north towards Dallas. Im really afraid of being stuck out on the freeway though




Stevie. Steve lives in Old Metarie...just west Of Downtown New Orleans. He wanted to stay and send his wife and children upstate.
We pleaded with him to leave. Steve did leave. His house and some of his relatives houses are gone.
Clear Lake is not that high above sea level.

Take the 12 hour drive and go to Dallas.
Better Yet...Go west to San Antonio. Just stay away from the low areas and the Hill Country.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
KATFIVE
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 25
Re: Recon and Buoy Data [Re: danielw]
      #56137 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:55 AM

How can they have a systemic computer failure at a time like this? I thought they had redundency etc. etc.? This is a historic storm and I'm not sure I trust anything completely other than a plane in the air taking direct measurements. The IRs and everything I'm seeing suggests that this is a low ball figure! Meaning central pressure etc.

Edited by KATFIVE (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:59 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56138 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:56 AM

Quote:

Steve,

Take this for what it is worht. Dr. Lyons just said that Rita will hit the Texas coast at 155+ upon landfall. Any other information you need to make a life and death decision, not to scare you, but think of your family. [

/quote] This post was for Steve in Texas.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
gk
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: satellite steve]
      #56139 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:58 AM

Wave hgt south of Mobile was last reported at 7.9 ft and south of Panama City 10.5. Ahead of the storm are much lower, but to the north higher. The bouys near the storm have been knocked out/not reporting.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56140 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:58 AM

The last forecast point before landfall has the intensity at 135 kts (155 mph), which I assume is what Dr. Lyons is referring to. However, keep in mind that is a point forecast and the storm will still be off the coast by then. If it is in a weakening trend at that point, it will come in weaker than that. Forecast landfall will occur somewhere between 48-72 hours.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: ohioaninmiss]
      #56141 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:01 AM

Galveston could still be in big trouble - City is only 10 feet above sea level and very flat - Cat 2-3 wind and waves could overwash the entire island

Then if Galveston bay is on E side of storm more water could be pushed up into Houston as the Bay narrows


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
stevie
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 13
Loc: Clear Lake, Texas
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56142 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:01 AM

Thanks, I am going to leave. I have been an avid strom chaser since 1976, went through Alicia(1983), Claudette(1979) , Jerry(1989), Chantal(1989). and Allison(2002), but NEVER a Rita (2005). Wisdom will win out over my love for HURRICANES.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 340
Loc: Maryland
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56143 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:01 AM

My brother-in-law, who runs a restaurant on Galveston Island, got his wife and 4 kids out of there this afternoon. He was going to board up his restaurant, and then stay to ride things out.

Fortunately, we had the opportunity to speak with him. I don't have much fear in me. In my younger days, I would go thrill seeking. That being said, I draw the line at Cat 3. If there's a Cat 4/5 coming? Get the Hell out! You do NOT ride out a Cat 4/5 - they ride you...

Don't listen to possibilities of weakening prior to landfall. True or false, Rita will be carrying Cat 5 storm surge with her. Remember the 27+ foot (33' in places reported) surge from Katrina? I'm afraid we'll see a new high-water mark set with Rita. If you are within 10 miles of the coast, and less than 30 feet above sea-level, there should be NO debate. Load up, get what you need, and get gone.

YMMV SPSFD


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: danielw]
      #56144 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:02 AM

Full update now on the blogs. Further intensification possible, but the GFS solution of 200mph in 48hr just before landfall? Not buying that one. This storm is a potential disaster and I hope everyone is prepared for the worst.

All of the previous recon planes are back home now...should get a new one heading out there soon; with weakening likely to commence within 12hr, they may miss the peak intensity of the storm if not. They can't always time the advisory packages and plane reports exactly -- and with the former not being able to budge, it's just coincidence that the planes do not get out there to send their reports in time for a given advisory.

More tomorrow, time permitting. Things are getting busy around here again. Thanks to those of you who have PM'd me (and the other mods, I'm sure) with your support.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: stevie]
      #56145 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:02 AM

Dude, if I were you I would NOT stay there. I just looked up your town on Google Earth. You live southeast of Houston closer to the coast and will experience higher winds and possibly storm surge depending on how close you are to the bay. If this storm comes into your area leave. I always thought that I would stay for a Cat. 4/5 if it ever hit...now I would probably go. Why? Katrina taught one lesson that stuck in my mind: Cat4/5 storms don't follow the expected damage and storm surge impacts. There were some places in Miss. that never expected storm surge flooding and got it....too many "rules" were broken with Katrina a Cat 4. Too many unintended consequences. That's just my advice to you as you wait for the storm in your home by yourself!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
collegemom
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: stevie]
      #56146 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:03 AM

hey stevie I again post as I did on Friday before the Kat hit. I had folks come then and I welcome you to fill 2 bedrooms once more. God bless Arkansas and our measly 3 million for hurricane assistance.

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56147 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:03 AM

I heard him say that at landfall it will be 155+ but was hoping that it will weaken, but he decline to say it or when that might happen prior to landfall.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 79 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 55556

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center