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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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nate77
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Katrina Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: SirCane]
      #55908 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:35 PM

Katrina?

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ralphfl
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Katrina Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: SirCane]
      #55909 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:35 PM

well if it does not go due west soon it wont make there track but what i was referring to was these posts about N.O. totally off line as there is no sign of that kind of north movement.Sure it may be going a little north of west but NW i don't see and at this point no threat to N.O.

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JYarsh
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Katrina Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: gogogabby007]
      #55910 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:35 PM

Agreed Ralph, there is no way New Orleanes is gonna be affected in any signifacant way by this storm. Not a single model takes the storm even within 200 miles of the city.

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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Katrina Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: JYarsh]
      #55911 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:40 PM

Quote:

Agreed Ralph, there is no way New Orleanes is gonna be affected in any signifacant way by this storm. Not a single model takes the storm even within 200 miles of the city.




im not saying a NO hit but u cant base anything off any models @ this point until they have new information pluged into them specialy since she blew up so quickly .. XD she is going to make her own way .. i hat eto see her hit houston .. i was there for TS allison and damn talk about flooding ...


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Random Chaos
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rita Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #55912 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:41 PM

Technically, you can always say that. Models are at least based on 6 hours old data, and the GFDL, one of the more accurate, is usually based on 12 hour old data.

If you say "we have to wait for the new data to be put in" then we are technically always waiting. These things take time to run.

--RC

P.S. - if you're writing here, change "Katrina" to "Rita" in the subject - it will lessen the confusion caused by MikeC having too much Katrina on the mind when he started the topic


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SirCane
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Katrina Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: JYarsh]
      #55913 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:42 PM

OH yes N.O. could seriously be effected. Especially if this hits Western LA. From the movement I see now that could happen.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Margie
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Katrina Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: bobbutts]
      #55914 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:43 PM

Well, looks can be deceiving...while it did move 305deg for over two hours, I went back and looked at the forecast points and actually 12 hours ago NHC did predict lat 24.4deg for 5pm EDT. It was the westward movement they were short on, predicting 86.5 when Rita moved to 86.8.

So if Rita had stayed true to the forecast point for 12 hours ago I guess we would have been seeing what would have looked like even more of a northward movement, but it would have been even more true to the NHC forecast from 12 hours ago.

24 hours ago they had predicted 24.2N, 87.0W. So there is a more northward component to that forecast point over time, but apparently not enough to result in a significant track change at landfall.


Also - going with the 914mb reading at 19:36Z, from noon that is a most extraordinary rate of intensification; between 9 and 10 mb per hour.

Pressure dropped 6mb in one hour between 11am and noon (CDT), and then 24mb more between noon and 2:30pm (approx).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Wed Sep 21 2005 09:54 PM)


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JulieTampa
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Direction of Rita [Re: JYarsh]
      #55918 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:49 PM

Two Questions:

Does the curvature of the Earth make a storm appear to curve a little on imagery when, in fact, it is really following a latitude line (or longitude for that matter)?

I know that cat 4 and 5 storms are harder to predict b/c the data on them is rare. I've heard they are affected less than weaker storms by traditional steering mechanisms. Is this true? In this case, would that make Rita be more likely to continue on its straight course, or more likely to curve more?

Thanks for the info


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ralphfl
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Katrina Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: Margie]
      #55920 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:50 PM

the new NOGAPS is inline now with the rest of the models and its most current run.


If you look at the last 3 frames only its just slight north of due west and the current is what matters.Agagin i don't see this as anything for N.O in the way of hurricane winds or bands for that matter unless it changes alot in the next 12 hrs.

Edited by ralphfl (Wed Sep 21 2005 09:51 PM)


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Thunderbird12
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latest vortex [Re: ralphfl]
      #55921 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:55 PM

000
URNT12 KNHC 212149
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/21:16:00Z
B. 24 deg 24 min N
086 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2292 m
D. 55 kt
E. 137 deg 081 nm
F. 238 deg 145 kt
G. 141 deg 009 nm
H. 904 mb
I. 9 C/ 3046 m
J. 30 C/ 3052 m
K. -1 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A Rita OB 17
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 19:32:00 Z


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KATFIVE
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Katrina Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: ralphfl]
      #55922 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:58 PM

Well, we all know these things bobble a bit, but I can understand why someone could worry about seemingly innocuous movements with regard to a monster like Rita. No one is seriously suggesting that NO will take anything like a direct hit, but rainfall is a real problem. If Rita continues to enlarge, you may see some significant rainfall in NO. On FOX (take it for what it is worth) they are saying even 3 inches of rain could seriously affect the jury-rigged levee system leading to reflooding of some areas. So movements 50 miles one way or the other could have a significant impact.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Movement of Rita [Re: ralphfl]
      #55923 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:58 PM

As for movement, what I see was a short (hour and a half) NW movement before it resumed a due westward movement. That's a jog, not a change in movement. It might be the difference between just south of Galviston and Galvaston, but it's not going to bring it into NO unless that high to the north moves out of the way.

Steering currents are pushing it west with possibly a slight southwest component. As the high over Texas moves west, the hurricane will be forced to stay south until the low exits to the east. Once it exits it can begin the northward curve. Thus, in many ways, the track of the hurricane is more dependent on the movement of the high then on the depth of the storm.

IR Loop (5-15 minute frames...instead of 30 minute at SSD)
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...mp;numframes=20

Steering currents:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html


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Random Chaos
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Re: Recon [Re: Random Chaos]
      #55925 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:00 PM

New Recon: 904mb

292
URNT12 KNHC 212149
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/21:16:00Z
B. 24 deg 24 min N
086 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2292 m
D. 55 kt
E. 137 deg 081 nm
F. 238 deg 145 kt
G. 141 deg 009 nm
H. 904 mb
I. 9 C/ 3046 m
J. 30 C/ 3052 m
K. -1 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A Rita OB 17
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 19:32:00 Z


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


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current path... [Re: ralphfl]
      #55926 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:04 PM

is remarkably close to the NHC....and it is kicking more west than north now. So my fears that it was wnw have been squelched. it is definitely, however, more north than anticipated...actually, quite a bit...around 40 miles or so.

Extrapolate that all the way to the coast, and the difference can be hundreds of miles....I am leaning more to the NHC's ideas again...but I wouldn't rule out a significant shift east.

I mean...the envelope of uncertainty is there...so if someone on this forum sees a change in the exact path by the NHC (which is remarkably correct) ...what of it?

This is a forum, and all views and observations should be respected....if someone has a contrary view...fine.

in the end...someone is gonna take it on the chin. this is a BAD HURRICANE......I would hate to have the repsponsibility of figuring out where it is going.....

I am thinking Houston/Galveston...and could easily shift further up the coast towards Louisiana....based on visible observations

whew....


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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher


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Re: Recon [Re: Random Chaos]
      #55927 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:05 PM

I asked this before, and in light of this new advisory, the question is even more germane: have any of you seen a now 21C temperature differential before? I know that Kat topped out at 14 C. Does anyone have any historical perspective they could put on this astonishing figure?

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LSUHurricane
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Re: Recon [Re: KATFIVE]
      #55928 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:07 PM

the newest GFS (18z) is suggesting a more eastern track. this puts it right on target for galveston.

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Psyber
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Re: Recon [Re: Random Chaos]
      #55929 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:10 PM

Who could have thought that a Cat 5 could follow another Cat 5 this soon and not only equal it, but BEAT it in strength. Rita's not done yet, there's loads of warm water left before it hits land. Hell we've not even had an ERC yet which would probably worsen it even more at this point... :/

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Katrina Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: Terra]
      #55930 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:11 PM

...It is indeed likely that what you are seeing in the infrared imagery of the "pin-point" eye are tendencies for polarward wobbles. Not surprising, she is ultimately slated for a right turn. However, if you study the imagery long enough what you are really seeing are not uncommon step-wise adjustments to the right along a path that is essentially west, when not performing these steps. Which is to say, the governing motion is W. TPC is not in the habit of throwing caveats in there to account for what is probably obvious to everyone, because its confusing and unnecessary.

The problem with this is TPCs bureaucracy and policy conventions, some of which you must agree with. It is impractical and splitting hairs to ring an update every time a focused satellite observer takes note of subtle variation or nuance along Rita's or any other tropical cyclone's path. The fact of the matter is, ALL hurricanes, even the ones following the most linear pathways make apparent "wobbles" and or jump tracks some fraction of a degree, lat or lon, as they go. Convective processes can also jerk relative motions awry, making it very difficult, even in very developed systems to be absolutely deterministic. More frequently than not these subtleties have no bearing on the ultimate track, and for those hobbyist who track tempests, it can be a bit frustrating. As far as the here and now goes, Rita could easily wobble several times and still denude Galveston off the face of the planet. Scientifically, we have to be more patient. We must establish a sufficient observation pool in order to derive cogent analysis pertaining to track motion - hence the 6 hours. You may have noticed that Charley on the west coast of Florida, 2004, did get intermediate updates related to the Charlotte Harbor area, when it became certain that a wobble right meant impacting there as opposed to 70 miles up the Coast. So it is done when it is prudent to do so.

Another way to look at is that synoptically, the ridge which is driving Rita west is still in tact, so you could argue that we are right about to see a sw motion for a couple of hours, and if officials drew up a wnw motion, too many people would look like geniuses... Can't have that now can we.


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LSUHurricane
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Re: Recon [Re: Psyber]
      #55931 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:14 PM

sorry fellas, heres the link (prob have it already, NCEP still sendin in the data)

web page


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Recon [Re: KATFIVE]
      #55932 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:17 PM

I've never seen a temp differential of 21C, but I haven't paid that close attention to that aspect of the recon reports until recently. Even more amazing to me a temperature reading of 30C at 3052 m AGL (around 10,000 feet). That is completely mind-boggling.

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