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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Texascoast
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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rita Moving Westward in the Gulf *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: MikeC]
      #55933 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:18 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Recon [Re: Psyber]
      #55935 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:22 PM

Quote:

Who could have thought that a Cat 5 could follow another Cat 5 this soon and not only equal it, but BEAT it in strength. Rita's not done yet, there's loads of warm water left before it hits land. Hell we've not even had an ERC yet which would probably worsen it even more at this point... :/




Not quite beating it yet. It still has 2mb to go...though at the rate it's dropping...might already be there.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rita Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: Texascoast]
      #55936 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:22 PM

Dr Lyons just had a good discussion. The storm will turn north, that is inevitable. But it is relative to the forward speed. Basically, the faster it moves, the farther west it goes, the slower, the farther east. The storm is not turning, it is wobbling. But wobbles slow down forward speed, and thus can shift the track slightly east. It has a way to go.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Recon [Re: Random Chaos]
      #55938 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:26 PM

Well it looks like by tonight Kat's record of 902 is going to be passed.

No I am astounded by the temp diff, just floored.

NHC just put out an update saying it is the fifth most intense on record.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Wed Sep 21 2005 10:29 PM)


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Psyber
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Re: Recon [Re: Random Chaos]
      #55939 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:27 PM

Katrina did 902mb. The last recon showed Rita at 904mb but it's got to be lower by now by the way it's been plummetting...sub 900 here we come

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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LisaMaria65
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Lafayette, La
Re: Recon [Re: LSUHurricane]
      #55942 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:30 PM

Quote:

sorry fellas, heres the link (prob have it already, NCEP still sendin in the data)

web page




Does this model have the center coming in right at the Tx/La border?? Or am I seeing that wrong?

--------------------
Lived through Betsy ('65), Camile ('69), Edith ('71), Carmen ('74), Danny ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05), Gustav ('08)....Who's next?


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rita Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #55943 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:32 PM

The storm is supposed to hit around Matagorda but if it went alittle further north that would be bad for Houston/Galveston.
We are supposed to get wind and rain here. Some people are evacuating just incase as
our county has called for a voluntary evacuation. If the track changes further north we'll go.
Interesting bit of information--there has never been two cat 5 storms in the gulf in the same season. And here they are so
close together. Clark or Hank Frank, if you are on the board, think we'll be okay here in Beaumont? They seem to be pretty
confident in the track. We are under a hurricane watch at this time.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Recon [Re: LisaMaria65]
      #55944 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:33 PM

I've taken a good long look at a few maps and satellite photos. The storm hasn't begun any northerly movement, but it did wobble to the north a bit. It's still pretty much due west. Shadows on the visible satellite exaggurate the effect, so I'm not using those. I'm not sold on the northerly movement yet.

People in Galveston need to evacuate, and parts of Houston. People all along that coast need to prepare, and if you are in the hurricane warning area and along the coast, just go.


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LSUHurricane
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Re: Recon [Re: LisaMaria65]
      #55946 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:37 PM

I think that it is likely just to the west of the la/tex border and maybe a hair to east of galveston. But thats not what concerns me. The concerning part of this is that this model is some 50 miles north of the "other dynamical models" at this time, although i havent seen the 18Z's of those neither.

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


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Re: Recon [Re: LSUHurricane]
      #55947 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:46 PM

wouldn't suprise me to see 175...even 185 winds in the next advisory...

It'll be interesting to see what our marina water level is....I'm sure the tides will be higher with her churning stuff up.

I'm guessing in the 895mb range...maybe lower...and a peak intensity of 190...gusts to 220...

we'll see....

Galveston, oh Galveston....


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rita Moving Westward in the Gulf [Re: pcola]
      #55948 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:46 PM

Quote:

Dr Lyons just had a good discussion. The storm will turn north, that is inevitable. But it is relative to the forward speed. Basically, the faster it moves, the farther west it goes, the slower, the farther east. The storm is not turning, it is wobbling. But wobbles slow down forward speed, and thus can shift the track slightly east. It has a way to go.




He's right, but I don't see any slowdown in the forward motion. The earlier wobble to the north has smoothed out and it's back on basically a due west track just slightly north of the forecast (north of the forecast due to the earlier wobble). It does appear to have a bit of an arm to the north on IR right now but that's 1) probably temporary, and 2) probably a sign that the wind field is once again expanding, not that the storm is turning.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


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Loc: BROWARD
Re: Recon [Re: LSUHurricane]
      #55949 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:47 PM

000
WTNT63 KNHC 212146
TCUAT3
HURRICANE Rita TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT...2116Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 904 MB...OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES Rita THE FIFTH MOST
INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888
MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB...HURRICANE ALLEN IN
1980 WITH 899 MB...AND HURRICANE Katrina LAST MONTH WITH 902 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART
---------------------------------------------------------------
Old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times!"

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Recon [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #55950 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:49 PM

And amazing on top of that, 2 of the 5 have been born within a month of each other

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Recon [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #55951 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:49 PM

Quote:

wouldn't suprise me to see 175...even 185 winds in the next advisory...
It'll be interesting to see what our marina water level is....I'm sure the tides will be higher with her churning stuff up.
I'm guessing in the 895mb range...maybe lower...and a peak intensity of 190...gusts to 220...
we'll see....
Galveston, oh Galveston....




I'd be surprised if the intensity were less than 175, since based upon the last recon my math said it was 170 an hour after the 4pm CT advisory. Given the recent intensification rate, 180 is more in line for the 7pm CT intermediate advisory. Camille is estimated to have had 190 mph winds (although the pressure was not this low). If nothing changes, I think Rita will max out as the most powerful hurricane in the Atlantic Basin, based on both wind and pressure... and it'll hit that tomorrow, I think.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #55952 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:55 PM

the good thing (i hope) is that we have plenty of time until landfall, and time for this girl to weaken.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Recon [Re: pcola]
      #55953 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:57 PM

Does anyone else looking at the visible imagery see two persistent thin lines arcing into the center, one coming in from the west and the other from the east? Any idea what those might be?

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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 25
Re: Recon [Re: pcola]
      #55954 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:58 PM

Steve Gregory's blog on Wunderground states that the 10mb drop in one hour is officially a record. Any corroboration out there?

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Recon [Re: KATFIVE]
      #55956 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:03 PM

I don't know if that would be a record, but the extrapolated 914 mb reading is dubious because two dropsondes at about the same time measured 908 and 909 mb respectively (assuming the 914 to 904 mb drop was the one in question).

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: Recon [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #55957 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:04 PM

wow - what you're describing here is a more intense (probably) than the Labor Day Storm of 1922, which as you probably know has the lowest barometric pressure ever measured in the Atlantic Basin, (895), and the highest winds ever measured at sea lvl, nearing 200mph.

Here's the deal, the ambient pressure in the Gulf (obviously outside Rita's envelope) was slightly positive anomaly, which means, an exceptionally low pressure has to carve through all that density. This is similar to why Katrina had winds of 175mph sustained while her core pressure got down to 904mb at one point. That pressure supports a faster wind velocity, believe it or not, and the reason we didn't see that in Katrina's case is because at that time the ambient pressure in the Gulf was slightly lower than normal. In order to drive a pressure down below 900mb in the current Gulf environment would be one hell of an atmospheric event.

I think I gotta go with fluctuations in intensity within and maintained in cat-status for the next day. Then, I'm a bit mystified at why TCP is claiming that the upper oceanic heat content of the western Gulf is cooler than the loop current region she currently translates across. I say so because: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km14gm00.gif
...clearly shows that the waters are on average just as warm, save for only a small region of 28C water near 90W/25N... 28C is still warm enough to sustain her seeing as the mid tropospheric shear is lower than normal. Also, she has extraordinarily well behaved upper atmospheric mechanics on her side... You can see cirrus elements difluent N and S away from an E-W axis, well west of Rita's location as of 6:52pm; as though atm is unzipping at 200mb. When Rita moves up underneath that, it will likely compensate for any lowering of available energy (considering that the water temp is above 80f everywhere, not such a big deal in the first place)...

Long story short, TPC is blowing it (I believe) by attempting to predict a reduction in some 40kts at land fall over where she will be during the next 24 hours. I see an upper cat-4 that is likely be be a hyper bomb on several occasions in between, taking her to over 180mph once if not twice... I wouldn't be surprised if she is an actual category 5 at land fall, but common experience and history has proven that mainaining a cat-5 storm for extended period of time is exceptionally rare - funny, that's actually happened a few times in recent years, ay?
we'll see.
tt


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: Recon [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #55959 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:09 PM

...actually, my bad! The Labor Day storm was in 1935...

and the lowest atlantic pressure was gilbert-888. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 21 2005 11:27 PM)


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