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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Recon [Re: Margie]
      #55960 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:10 PM

Margie, to one of your earlier posts, I just heard that the windfield is larger than Katrina, any Mets/Profs/Mods able to confirm?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: Recon [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #55962 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:17 PM

Dr. Steve Lyons just said on TWC that is has slowed a little in forward speed. I'm also seeing what apprears to be a pretty definitive change to the WNW, which looks like more than just a wobble to me. Your concensus?

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Recon [Re: pryord1]
      #55963 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:20 PM

Quote:

Dr. Steve Lyons just said on TWC that is has slowed a little in forward speed. I'm also seeing what apprears to be a pretty definitive change to the WNW, which looks like more than just a wobble to me. Your concensus?




I'm seeing a tad slower motion I'd guess, but no more WNW than over the last several hours, which has been denied vehemently by experts and the recon fixes.

Edit: Looking at the visible loop on NRL... it's definately moving north of due west, the recon not withstanding. Also in the last visible image ... the shadow that the CDO of Rita is making on the GOM is incredible. I don't believe I've ever seen a stadium effect quite that deep. What are the cloud top heights on the eyewall on this monster?


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Wed Sep 21 2005 11:27 PM)


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Recon [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #55964 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:22 PM

will try to post this data sheet from Hurtrack for Rita.
Hurricane Rita observation worksheet

Didn't work, basically, 64 KT winds extend out 105 miles (NE to SW) on Rita.

For Katrina, 64 KT winds extended out 144 miles (in basically same position at 08:00 HR on 8-28-05)

Michael

Edited by VolusiaMike (Wed Sep 21 2005 11:27 PM)


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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 60
Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #55965 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:23 PM

Holy Crap.....TWC just confirmed the pressure is down to 904mb....This thing has to be at least 175mph

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Recon [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #55966 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:25 PM

The last supplemental vortex report suggested that hurricane-force winds extend out about 80 miles to the NW of the center (if my math is correct), which is approaching the maximum radius of hurricane-force winds noted in Katrina. It was expected that Rita would grow in size, though it is unclear at this point whether it will grow to be as large as Katrina or not.

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Recon [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #55967 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:27 PM

Typhoon Tip,
who is TCP?
what do you think of this heat potential map?
which is more important SST or Heat Potential?

Heat Potential


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Recon [Re: bn765]
      #55968 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:30 PM

Quote:

Holy Crap.....TWC just confirmed the pressure is down to 904mb....This thing has to be at least 175mph




I stand by my intensity projections: near 180 by 11pm ET, if not at 8pm... approaching 190 by morning if the trend continues (God forbid).

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Recon *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: bn765]
      #55969 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:34 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Recon [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55970 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:38 PM

Quote:

WOW:
Accuweather is now reporting winds sustained at 185MPH right now.
Unbelievable!!!




Uh... where did you see that? I just went to Accuweather.com and the graphic still says 165.
Not that I wouldn't believe 185 right now (I would have guessed 180), but I don't see the report.

Update: This is what the site says for me now:

As of 5:00 PM EDT Wednesday, Rita is packing sustained winds of 165
mph with guststo 185 mph;


Totally off-topic... but Fox News Channel and MSNBC have live coverage of an Airbus A320 trying to attempt to crash land in Los Angeles after dumping its fuel into the Pacific. What a world this is.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Wed Sep 21 2005 11:44 PM)


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #55971 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:39 PM

On FOX news at a briefing. Jim Kosen from Accuweather reported that a sub 900MB is expected and Accuweather is reporting 185 regardless what the NHC is reporting. We will see it on the next update @8PM.

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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #55972 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:40 PM

Hugh,

The 185 mph wind could be from the 2149Z vortex report. The Max Flight Level wind was 161 knots = 185 mph.


292
URNT12 KNHC 212149
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/21:16:00Z
B. 24 deg 24 min N
086 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2292 m
D. 55 kt
E. 137 deg 081 nm
F. 238 deg 145 kt
G. 141 deg 009 nm
H. 904 mb
I. 9 C/ 3046 m
J. 30 C/ 3052 m
K. -1 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A Rita OB 17
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 19:32:00 Z


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 125
Re: Recon [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55975 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:42 PM

I've been watching this thing for the last couple of days, and last night before the 10:00 update came out my analysis pinpointed 90.04 west as my "best guess" for where she will hit, which is the far western edge of Galveston, with an almost-due-north motion at that time.

This was based on what I expect to see happen with the ridge, which should move northeast, and the location of the weakness into which Rita will turn. My view on verification is that the crossing point for 25N should occur at 90W - if it happens before, then she may come in somewhat east, if after, somewhat west.

This assumes no major earth-shattering changes in the steering flow - I see no reason to expect there will be any - the upper level pattern appears pretty well behaved.

I know this is significantly east of the NHC consensus, but there is some model support for this - the GFS has it pegged a bit east of there. The other models have tended to cluster west, but not very far.

Were I in Galveston or anywhere low in Houston or subject to surge I would be out of there right now, with my entire wardrobe and anything I wanted to keep in my car/truck with me - not just a couple of days worth of clothes and a few hundred bucks.

At the same time I would not let me guard down all the way to Corpus, and perhaps beyond. This thing is a monster, both in terms of windspeed AND size.

Katrina produced significant surge effects here near Destin and we were ~200+ miles from where it went in! This storm has the potential to be even worse - and certain on par with her in terms of destructive power at landfall.

The last few fixes tend to support a somewhat north-of-west motion, but the wobbling still puts her "up the middle" of hte NHC's forecast track. We shall see if the last few fixes are a trend - or just another wobble....

Be careful folks.....


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BCoEng16C
Registered User


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Posts: 3
Loc: Maryland,USA
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #55976 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:42 PM

Senior Forecaster for Accuweather was just on Fox News and said the winds are up to 185mph with a pressure of 904mb..........

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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Recon [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #55977 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:44 PM

I just got an update through e-mail that has the windfield at 150NM so maybe someone could verify that?

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Posts: 4545
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: BCoEng16C]
      #55978 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:45 PM

Quote:

Senior Forecaster for Accuweather was just on Fox News and said the winds are up to 185mph with a pressure of 904mb..........




Pretty sure they were referring to max flight level winds, which means more like 165MPH at the surface. I don't see any new recon reports to suggest it.


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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 60
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #55979 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:47 PM

Well we know one thing.....the winds are higher than 165. My guess 180-185

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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


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Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Re: Recon [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #55980 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:50 PM

Simple calculation for relative area of wind field.
A= Pi r^2.
Therefore: a circular storm of radius 50 miles has 1/4 the area as a storm of 100 mile radius. And so on... for only comparing relative areas one need not even know the value of Pi. Pi= 22/7 = 3.1416

Cheers!

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 25
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: bn765]
      #55981 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:50 PM

This may be a stupid question, but when do we expect to get some new numbers from reconnaissance?

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gk
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
Eye [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #55983 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:50 PM

Has anyone noticed in the last few frames of the Infrared and Dvorak IR that it appears the eye is shrinking. A possible ERC beginning to occur?

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