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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MissBecky
Weather Guru


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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #55984 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:51 PM

I'm not sure if this is the right place for this, but here is a link that shows the traffic right now in Houston.

http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/

I feel utterly heartsick when I think about what might happen in Galveston/Houston. I talked to a friend who lives in Houston tonight and he said he is still undecided if he will evacuate. He also said if he does leave, he will do it Thursday evening. I told him I thought this was leaving it until too late, and that I was very worried. He did say that his office had closed at noon for the rest of the week, and that most other businesses in the city had done the same thing. I am glad to hear this, because it will hopefully give more people incentive to leave, if they don't have to worry about getting fired over evacuating and not showing up for work.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: KATFIVE]
      #55985 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:52 PM

I think they are doing a plane switch right now - that would explain why we didn't get a recon about a half hour ago. Don't know how quickly the new plane will get to the storm, but we should have a fix soon...supposed to be a 00Z recon flight, and that's 10 min's away - should be reaching the storm before long, if it isn't there already.

BTW GK: Shrinking = strengthening. When it gets small enough an ERC might occur, but it could also hold off for a little while.

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 21 2005 11:54 PM)


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


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Re: Recon [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #55986 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:53 PM

Is that hurricane force winds or tropical force winds?

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Recon [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #55987 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:54 PM

Quote:

I just got an update through e-mail that has the windfield at 150NM so maybe someone could verify that?




Snip from the 5pm Public Advisory:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.


This means that the hurricane force wind field is approximately 140 across and the tropical storm force wind field is approximately 350 miles across. Since the storm is very symetrical, this is probably pretty darn accurate. Normally the bulk of the wind field is not even on all sides of the storm.

Another poster asked about size comparison to Katrina. Based on a quick visual peak at the maps, it appears that Katrina's wind field was slightly larger than Rita when comparing the advisories issued when the storms were first classified as category 5. Certainly, the hurricane force wind field was larger for Katrina at this point. You can see the archived maps for Katrina at www.skeetobiteweather.com, look in the lower right of the home page for archived storm links.

If I get a chance, I'll dig through the database and do a comparison to give you the exact numbers.


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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #55988 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:54 PM

I'm sure most of you also heard it but Steve Lyons just said the pressure was down to 899 mb making it the 3rd most intense hurricane ever.

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #55989 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:56 PM

898mb is the new pressure for Rita, per the NHC.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Recon [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #55990 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:56 PM

What.... 899mb?

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Random Chaos]
      #55991 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:56 PM

HURRICANE Rita TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT
MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY
DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF Rita. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES Rita THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART


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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55992 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:57 PM

WOW!!!!!!!! This thing has to be at least 185mph

Edited by bn765 (Wed Sep 21 2005 11:58 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Clark]
      #55993 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:58 PM

Yes and what is amazing is that they explain how they probably didn't get the lowest pressure.

So I assume they're going to keep doing dropsondes in this type of situation because if it is really a record number they will definitely want to get it.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Recon [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #55994 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:58 PM

Again, that supports what Accuweather was reporting, the winds now at 185PMH. The pressure decrease has been insane, and I believe we haven't seen the worst yet. Don't Rita will still have to go through an ERC. It is then I believe that it will continue to fall.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: bn765]
      #55995 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:58 PM

thank goodness this thing is 2 days away from landfall...and I have alot more faith in the GFDL model which predicted this!

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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gk
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
Re: Eye [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55996 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:59 PM

The eye has been the same size for some time now and the pressure has falling rapidly. Based on this and the most recent observations I would agree with earlier posts that the pressure should fall into the 890s or lower.

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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


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Loc: BROWARD
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rita Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: KATFIVE]
      #55997 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:00 AM

Quote:

This may be a stupid question, but when do we expect to get some new numbers from reconnaissance?




Any time now... Any time... Your post is not stupid at all. You might do a quick check on when they usually come out. Delay may be because Recon is having a very interesting time within the belly of this beast.

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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HanKFranK
User


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Loc: Graniteville, SC
houston we have a problem [Re: Hugh]
      #55998 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:00 AM

every time i've checked up on Rita today the thought has been 'well, at least it can't get a whole lot stronger', but that common sense hasn't had much effect thus far. Rita is insane... doing its intensification without nearly as much oceanic heat content as Katrina had. the storm is slightly more compact and perhaps that makes for some of the difference. i do expect that Rita will peak this evening and slowly cycle down over the next couple of days at it nears the coast. if anybody remembers what allen did, it's that just because an enormous hurricane is off the coast, it doesn't mean it will come in like that. i don't see anything less than a very expansive 3 out of this, and more likely 3/4 borderline... but that's still plenty to deal with.
gonna keep my landfall point at sargent. don't see any reason to shift as guidance has been camped a little on either side for the past two days. if it works out it'll be very bad for greater houston, as galveston would get to sample the fate of biloxi, and houston metro would be raked with hours of hurricane force winds and get widespread moderate structural damage. east of houston is pretty bad too as the destruction would be worse in the beaumont/port arthur/orange area.. but i'm not betting on that. best place for Rita to go is in at matagorda bay, as the region is less densely populated and the potential human impact won't be as overwhelming. the official is still camping around there which is somewhat reassuring.
get ready for $4 a gallon gas next week. i'm hoping against hope that the scramble that jacked prices up worse than otherwise a few weeks ago won't be repeated, but people are probably going to stampede all the same. at least we don't have to worry about thousands of people getting stuck in a quagmire, 'cause i think the lesson of new orleans sunk in pretty well.
beyond the coast, more modeling is suggesting erratic/slow/stalled behavior over east texas/oklahoma. the setup for a significant inland flooding threat is a potential reality here as well... that's something to expect.

elsewhere: philippe has been getting steadily weaker as Rita grows. the upper low east of philippe has battered it into a weak tropical storm with a large area of disturbed weather to its east. theres a little trough tail hanging off of it into the caribbean, and a surface reflection with the shearing upper low as well. also a spot of persistent disturbed weather in the sw caribbean. these areas will need to be watched as the pattern-pulse should try to kick something up from off the east coast down to the caribbean next week. it's perhaps not related, but GFS is showing disturbed weather migrating out of the caribbean, though it hasn't been consistent and keeps changing the circulation features. there are also more cape verde origin features showing up, but this late in the season those usually have a hard time acting up. punchline is that when Rita is gone there will likely be more activity.
it's going unnoticed, but the strongest hurricane near hawaii in quite some time is weaving around east of the island chain. models take it northwest and never close enough to affect them, but a couple hundred miles difference and they'd be pretty nervous right now. another eastpac disturbance appears to be developing, so the upstream atlantic basin should continue active.
HF 0000z22september

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 22 2005 12:13 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Recon [Re: bn765]
      #55999 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:00 AM

Quote:

What.... 899mb?




Fox News Channel just interrupted their JetBlue coverage to report that the recon has measured 898.

7pm CT Advisory is up on WU... winds remain 165 according to it... but I suspect the winds have not been entirely measured yet, or have just not caught up. The 3rd most intense hurricane on record.... unbelievable.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 22 2005 12:03 AM)


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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher


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Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Random Chaos]
      #56000 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:02 AM

cnn reports 898 mb

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
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Re: Recon [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56001 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:05 AM

Does anyone recall Gilbert, was it 888

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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gk
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
Re: ridging to the north [Re: KATFIVE]
      #56002 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:07 AM

Does anyone notice that the ridging north of Rita appears to be weakening in he water vapor loops and a consistant nw motion as occurred?

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Recon [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #56003 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:09 AM

Gilbert was 888mb, 185mph winds:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gilbert


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