Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Taking a break from for a moment, there is a new area of interest in the Caribbean:
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Strange question, where are the hurricane Hunters flying out of now. Iheard they were flying from Atlanta. Is this correct?
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Jim
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Thanks, I am going to leave. I have been an avid strom chaser since 1976, went through Alicia(1983), Claudette(1979) , Jerry(1989), Chantal(1989). and Allison(2002), but NEVER a (2005). Wisdom will win out over my love for HURRICANES.
Smart choice. Just remember, if you want to continue to be a storm chaser, you have to get out of the way of the storm occcassionally. Even if weakens it will still potentially destroy much of the area... and right now there is no sign that weakening is imminent. It probably will happen but the intensity forecasts for have been well under what has happened so far... which means the 180 in 12 hours could end up being 200, and the 155 at landfall could be 170. Of course, the forecast could be right from here on out, too, but I would not want to go through even 140mph in a low-lying area.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Wave hgt south of Mobile was last reported at 7.9 ft and south of Panama City 10.5. Ahead of the storm are much lower, but to the north higher. The bouys near the storm have been knocked out/not reporting.
The wave heights you are referring to are from 2150Z or 4:50 PM CDT.
"The Gateway to the computers has failed and Verizon has been notified" per Admin message.~danielw
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Taking a break from for a moment, there is a new area of interest in the Caribbean:
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Saw that note.. it looks like it's outflow from on IR though... is it really something to worry about?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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O.K. my last post before I retire for the evening. This was from Dr.Lyons.
He stated that is like an F-3 Torando the size of GA.
Anything else to say!!!
Nope!!
GET OUT OF TEXAS NOW WHEN WHEN YOU STILL CAN.
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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I saw a report today that described the 1900 Galveston storm as having a 15 foot surge. At that time, the highest part of the island was about 9 feet. I believe that is the height of the present seawall (built after the 1900 storm). That means it is quite possible the surge will overtop the seawall and flood the island briefly with a result looking something like what we have seen in Biloxi (not the standing water of New Orleans).
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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175mph winds and still getting stronger.And they say we better get use to seasons like this for the next 10-30 years.Now that is scary.This is like some movie.God help Texas.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Looks like a new thread was just started...
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Allison
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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You are correct. The Hurricane Hunter Aircraft were moved from the gulf in advance of to Dobbins Air Reserve Base in Marietta, Ga which is a suburb just to the north of Atlanta. Thusly it probably will take them a little longer to get to the gulf for their runs than if they were at the AFB they were stationed at originally.....
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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oil trader
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
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......This storm is a potential disaster and I hope everyone is prepared for the worst......
This is a kind of nightmare. All those worst case scenarios were overwhelmed by reality. I am just asking at this point to those erudite people in this forum if there is anything could happen to have some type of relieved ending or we are definitively condemned to expect an inevitable tragedy.
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Looks like that low will run out of territory over water and cross central america near the ICTZ - Will then have to watch it in E Pacific
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
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I've read that the seawall is 17' tall and that parts of the island were raised up to as high as 19' above sea level. Imagine a 25' wall of water having huge chunks of concrete debris being shoved along through it...
Now imagine you're in a "safe" structure when that hits.
Not trying to be alarmist, more like the cold slap of reality. If anyone stays, it'll only be fun through the first 3 hours of tropical storm force winds. Then the fun starts going away. 2 hours into Hurricane force winds, you realize you're 8 hours too late to run if you wanted to. You try and keep your mood up, but that damn storm noise is just so loud, so intense, and so unrelenting.
When the sustained winds crest 100mph, you hear all kinds of unnatural sounds. When they crest 120 for even seconds at a time, your structure tells you that man is good, but nature is better. I'm going to cut myself short before I get really grizzly on the descriptions.
Let's hope speeds back up - the slower she moves, the worse things are. Let's pray that absolutely everybody evacuates this time. Even one life lost is one too many.
/apologies for my darker side showing through - I started out answering a question, and diverged into trying to explain why you don't play with a storm this big. 
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gailwarning
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
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I've met a lot of people who have stayed for a Cat 3 hurricane, including some of my neighbors here in FL who stayed last year for Jeanne. I have yet to meet one who said they would do it again. Two doors down, mother and 10 year old son spent most of the night in the hallway, wind roaring, watching the interior walls of their home move back and forth as if they were breathing. Across the street, another watched a small tornado rip through her neighbor's back yard, tearing their pool structure to shreds and ripping trees up by their roots. Their house, designed to handle 150 mph winds, had massive roof failure, collapsing most of their ceilings from the rain.
And I am talking about a Cat 3. Stay for a Cat 4 or 5? NOT!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I had a then Boderline Cat 3/2 go over my house last year. The aftermath was worse then the storm; but the bad part of the storm was only an hour here. I would not have wanted to see an extended system of that length. I was 90 miles from the landfall point. If I were on the coast, I would not take a chance. I would be inland at least 100-150 miles.
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Jim
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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up and on the way... just hit the GOM
URNT11 KNHC 220405
97779 04024 50300 8830/ 61000 03027 5877/ /8038
RMK AF307 1618A OB 01
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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I went through a typhoon in Okinawa in the 70's. I have no idea what "category" it was. I was in a supposedly "typhoon proof" structure--essentially a reinforced semi-tubular steel Quonset type building with 1/2" steel cables over it anchored in a concrete slab underneath. The building shook and rattled. At the height of the storm, a very heavy old window air-conditioner blew out of the window and came sailing 10 feet or so across the room, landing just short of my chest (I was lying on a medical exam table trying to sleep). We were well above sea level so there was no storm surge to worry about--just the wind. Anyway, it was all quite enough to convince me I would not want to "ride out" one of these storms in any conventional house.
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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Quote:
I've read that the seawall is 17' tall and that parts of the island were raised up to as high as 19' above sea level.
Yes, you are correct. Soon after I typed what I said above, I saw a report on MSNBC that clearly stated the Galveston sea wall is 19 ft high, however they were predicting a 19-20 ft storm surge at a time that still had a pressure considerably higher than 900mb. Also, I believe the newer parts of Galveston--those that were populated in recent years with expensive vacation homes, are on lower ground (although most of the homes themselves are on pilings) and not protected by the sea wall. Therefore, my point I think remains--all of Galveston's protections could be overtopped by the storm surge of a Cat 4 storm leaving a Biloxi-type scene, not just "erosion" as someone said Jim Cantore was suggesting.
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