KATFIVE
Weather Watcher
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you bring up the million dollar question. The way this thing is spinning up, I wonder how quickly it will spin down when there is still warm water beyond the Loop. So if this thing gets up to 185 mph and near record central pressure, is there a basics physics question as to how quickly it can deaccelerate absent cool water or dry air entrainment or some very timely EWRC. In the case of KAT, there was a bit of deacceleration, but the storm surge was not immediately responsive to the relative weakening to say the least.
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gk
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
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I personally see nothing in front of to indicate weakening. No shear to mention, ridging weakening, warm waters. With the exception of an she still has the chance to regain Cat 5 status before landfall no mater where that is.
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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Mobile Bay
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A few minutes ago Dr. Lyons suggested that areas in SW LA outside the Eastern edge of the cone should be closely monitoring the storm in case it were to make landfall slightly right of the Eastern edge of the cone. 
Edited by Black Pearl (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:44 PM)
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BCoEng16C
Registered User
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Loc: Maryland,USA
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When gets closer to land where the water is not as deep and a little cooler won't that weaken her somewhat ?
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
17 09/21 5:00 PM 24.4N 86.8W
17A 09/21 8:00 PM 24.5N 86.8W
Clearly there has to be a typo... as if you look at the sats, the storm is moving and there is a most definite west component.
Regarding comment below.... all I am saying is the has to be mistaken in one of those coordinates. From 5PM to 8PM the storm did not stay still (or only move 0.1N). I'm not obsessing over the sats, just pointing out that there is a mistake, which is clearly illustrated by the sats.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:52 PM)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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remember..tracks are not from advisory to advisory..they go for 12 hours..which is why we are still looking west...the storm is wobbling, or better yet, what is often called a stair pattern..it wobbles due north, then due west, Hurricane did this, that is why it made landfall at Navarre fl. It was on a north wobble, if it had been west, it would have been closer to Mobile..but this is a definate change in direction, slightly north of the path..and with 2 days to go, it could have a significant impact on landfall, especially if it slows down..I'm still focused on Galvaston to Port Arthur as landfall, with whoever is 20-40 miles east of landfall taking one he** of a beating!
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Either I'm crazy, or am I the only one who is noticing that according to the storm coordinates, did not move West during the time between the 5PM and 8PM Advisories? Take a look at the Google map plot, it only drifted a little due north. This doesn't look like movement due west at 13 mph to me.
You're not crazy, I just looked at the coordinates. That would explain why it is due north of the forecast track.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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gk
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
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Notice the wave height on the buoy south of NO, 21. 3 ft - period 15 sec and that is well away from center.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Calm people.... I know that this is freakish and scary stuff to see, but staring at the IR loops or the visible loops will not make the storm update any faster, nor will a few hours significantly alter the course of the storm.
If you can, go bike, walk, go watch Lost, do something else for a bit and relax.... come back and look objectively (unless you're a met, in which case, work harder!! read those tea leaves and tell is what's going to happen! 
BTW, could someone change the title to "Rita"
Guess we're all a little excited tonight 
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Kat,
Even if it weakens a little bit, the effects on storm surge take much longer to subside, about 12-24 hrs to the actual weakening of the storm. As we seen in , it weaken upon hitting land, but the damage was already done, the surge was huge. And if we have winds at or over 185, then the push of water has already started out in all directions, and will continue to build.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Possibly, but I imagine it will be like with ...may be a Cat 3 or 4 but still have that Cat 5 surge...that's the big thing to worry about the surge.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Mike,
What do you mean by annular hurricane?
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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We all like to look at the wobbles we see in the satellite images and think they represent a long term change. We just have to be a little patient and see. The timing of the weakening of high pressure north of the storm, the speed of forward motion of and how quickly the next trough drifts east will determine the outcome. And yes the latest models look like the storm may be towards the right (North ) of the guidance.
Weakening is a tougher question - eyewall replacement doesn't necessarily mean the overall storm energy is decreased as the wind field can expand - But as the storm turns more northward the protected environment over the warmest gulf waters with an upper level anti-cyclone will slowly be lost - I would guess a scenario similar to - a devastating major hurricane but prob not Cat 5 at landfall
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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The movement is not sustained to the NW. It is stairstepping, so over the most recent time period movement has been to the WNW overall at about 290deg.
Zoon in on wv loop & run.
Between 17:45Z and 20:15Z, movement to 305deg.
Between 20:15Z and 22:45Z, movement to 270deg.
Next frame, to 23:15Z, movement to 300deg.
So we can't draw the conclusion the overall movement is NW. At the most, if this trend continues, it will be WNW. However overall movement may still be west, or about 270-275deg, over a longer period of time. has been extremely accurate with landfall predictions. They have been so accurate that they've only had to make minor adjustments over time for most of the tracks.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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tpratch
Moderator
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Loc: Maryland
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Annular Hurricane Suggested Reading 
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Whoa... check out what the A98E model did for the latest run... Other models also reran, but did not have the same dramatic shift.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL182005
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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1. I am seeing a WNW to NW movement now on IR, and recon definately shows a long term WNW movement. I think she's starting to turn, cutting a path to the east of the high pressure. If you look at the CMISS steering currents, it is clear she is east of the high, and she's ignoring its steering currents that should be pushing her SW, and that means cutting north between the UL high over TX and the UL high over FL.
Steering currents: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
THESE ARE ALL STRONGLY IF STATEMENTS. No models are showing what I'm talking about, but the steering currents are clearly present. She has deepened so much in such little time that the steering currents that the models based her track on may no longer be valid.
2: IF she does cut north, the TX high will push her east, making landfall even toward the FL panhandle possible. If you are anywhere along the gulf I would watch this thing CLOSELY!
3: IF she does cut north, it will keep her over warmer waters longer, as long as she isn't pushed too far east. That could cause her to maintain, or increase, intensity. The warmest deep waters in the gulf are just to her north now.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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What is the A98e..is it a global model..info please....
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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NASA image
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/134221main_pia06428-browse.jpg
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
What is the A98e..is it a global model..info please....
"A98E: The A98E model is a statistical-dynamical prediction model that uses geopotential heights from the forecast to modify a CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) track forecast. It is the early 98 Statistical-Dynamical Model run for the Atlantic."
Source: http://weather.wtoc.com/tropical/computer_proj1.htm (aren't google searches handy? )
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