MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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All please use the forecast lounge for forecasts without explanation.
Be back around 6PM
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Loc:
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QUOTE......they are gassing up here in Alabama....people starting to get edgy even here....long lines...running out...
The whole country is in line for gas, not because they think the hurricane is coming their way but because of the expected price hikes coming.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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For what it's worth....Rita is moving NW. I just put a ruler on my monitor for about 3 hours worth of loopage and she's clearly on about a 305degree heading. What makes this intrguing is two fold:
a) this much polarward component at this stage in the game is troublesome... In one school, simply can't move much further east of SW Louisiana when considering synoptics; in the other school, that isn't true... It is possible because the synoptics as modeled could simply be in smaller or larger error. Purely imaginatively, suppose the models are about 20 to 30 meters too deep with the heights in the ridge as it is slipping east?? That would certainly assist in drawning more north. The stakes are very high for storm weary denizens east of the Louisiana/Texas boarder. Lord knows there is no room or tolerance for weather phenomenon in that area, but as nature is constantly reminding us, "Lord" is a human invention. Thankfully, could strike with a "little" room to spare.
b) ...Something has just occurred to me that I haven't read from any agencies or forums regarding 's track guidance:
1) We are still in essentially the same overall synoptic pattern as what took place prior to and during
the evolution of .
2) That is important to me because was modeled initially far left of where she ultimately came
on board (by as much as 200 miles depending on your tool), as little as 3 days prior to landfall.
3) Thus, "1)" becomes immensely important then because if the synoptics are causing issues with model
guidance, the model guidance may not be as trustable as in other scenarios.. Trends in accurracy are
very, very important in forecasting.
We'll just have to wait and see here for the next couple hours (would like this to last for 6 if that is ok) before consigning to a western Louisiana strike. But, from where I'm sitting, this 305 motion is not wobbles - it's down right linear! Thing is, if she stayed at 305 dgs for the remainder of her trek she would come in N of Galveston Bay's inlet on the upper Texas Coast. But, the acquiring of polarward component so early makes one weary that she's got be curving sooner.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Well you can see it's even gone a little east of even the latest revised track. What's really confusing to me and to others is a lack of solid steering components. It's scary to think that it's pretty much going where it wants to go without anyone really understanding WHY it's going there...
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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where is this rick forecast...? i can't find it in previous pages...
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Marji
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Was sent to the graveyard-----
I am in his camp of where the storm is heading.
Marji
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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it was deleted by the mods or sent to the graveyard, check
over there it should be there
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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'O contrare' I think "human" is a Lord invention. Other than that I agree with your synopsis. This situation is a recipe for disaster here, as is obviuosly right of the forecasted track, and she's exploiting the weakness in the ridge NOW. Unless there's more ridging to her NW building eastward (which I highly doubt) she's into her turn and may not see Texas at all. Interesting developments in the Atlantic possibly as well, as Pieces of Philippe's energy are moving westward as the LCC dissolves, which could get interesting next week, and a well-defined wave and circulation is charging off Africa today. BTW, W. Gray says at least 2 more major Canes possible, one could impact US....quoted from him today..... 
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
where is this rick forecast...? i can't find it in previous pages...
MikeC explained it all at the top. I think he moved a whole bunch of stuff/deleted some wild speculation/potential personal shots.
There's some really good work being done in here with a variety of east vs. west information. We're all on the same team! 
The lastest GOES shows some rebuilding...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Yeah, you know - that is intriguing! It kind of reminds me of simply balancing forces in vector calculus from them college days... A lot of fancy schmancy terms for what is simply adding up all the vectors and balancing them out.. This can be done with trigonometry, by use of variations in soc-cah-toa (sine over cosine...etc)...
Hypothetically only, I think what may be going on is a strengthening vectorial component (perhaps more so than the models intimate) oriented from S toward the N...Meanwhile, there is a weakening vectorial component oriented from NE toward the SW... In very simply terms, the one from the S is becoming increasingly dominant in the addition. But, without hand on availability to the latest sounding data and the inside scoop on recon that I suspect we don't "really" get to see some times - wink wink - this has to be suppositional...
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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One great thng is majority of Weather Forecasters are forecasting this thing to hit as Weak Cat 4 or Cat 3 which is alot better then a Cat 5.
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JoeF
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa
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In the infrared loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
the red band has started to wrap fully around the center again. Does this mean she is strengthening again?
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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I know was going through an earlier, does anyone have information as to if that was completed. It might be the reason for the deep convection starting to wrap around once again.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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last 2 loops show a wnw movement rather then NW which means as of now it would almost have to bend NE soon to hit N.O so i think those casters are out the window.
As far as the eye i see clouds in it so not a clear eye right now.
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: New Hampshire
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I overlayed these images (attached):
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/134221main_pia06428-browse.jpg
It shows how the storm is diverting northeast from yesterday's 10am update and also shows it hugging the loop current. Makes me wonder about how much sea conditions are at play here compared to upper level features. Following that logic, the storm should rebend more westerly towards the eddy in the future. Probably this is more coincidence than logic, but I thought it was worth sharing anyway.
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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As has been discussed for many days now, is forecasting the high over Texas to slide east...
"A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTS."
But in watching Dr. Neil Frank's report last night, his explanation is that the high over TX/OK is sliding west, and a second high is building over the Great Lakes region... pushing into Texas... and I have to say, in looking at the WV loop , that high over Texas really doesn't look like it's making any sort of move to the east...
The result is the same, really, but it's interesting how opinions can differ over data that seems, in my amature opinion at least, to be rather objective in nature.... 
Thoughts?
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Allison
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Outer eyewall has shrunk from 55 to 45 miles wide according to the latest recon:
000
URNT12 KNHC 221655Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1619Z
B. 25 DEG 26 MIN N
88 DEG 49 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2338 M
D. 80
E. 135 DEG 15 NM
F. 211 DEG 120 KT
G. 119 DEG 11 NM
H. 915 MB
I. 12 C/ 3048 M
J. 20 C/ 3057 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C018-45
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A OB 17
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 1446Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION, SFC CENTER OBSCURED
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Afternoon all.
Significant change in forecast track in 10am advis, as alluded to in previous advis, sparing Houston and Galveston the worst of the storm -- not a big surprise as the WNW trend becoming NW has not averaged out to a western movement for the last 18 hrs. Reminds me of the moment several days before landfall when 's track was shifted 150mi to the west. Have been busy at work and have not had a chance to look at any posts. My mother in MS called wanting to know some information on the storm; I told her to keep a close eye on the local TV weather reports for surge and tide numbers in her area. Luckily all the houses in that area that could be affected by higher water, even between say 4-8 feet, have already been flooded and no one is living in them.
Well the trend for any future track changes appears to be to the east, not the west; looking bad for the southern LA coastline; Port Authur and points east.
Rita has kept growing in size the last 36 hours, and while not quite as large as , does still have a very large windfield, so the effect of the storm to the east will be felt over a large coastal area.
I have a couple of met questions. Will track changes take over that warm eddy of the loop current (the one to the west of the deeper eddy south of NOLA)? If so, would this timing be in conjunction with completion of the ? Is the track change due to a weakness in the ridge? Referring to Ron Basso's post earlier this am, is this starting to become a track between the two highs, or is it still following along the high above TX/OK?
Looking forward to next met blog or met posts.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Sep 22 2005 05:18 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Actually, Steve, it is interesting you mention Philippe... I was watching the satellite presentations this morning and I was thinking the same thing! That the U/A low guilty of imparted shear over the system was "kind of like" doing a weak version of Gracie's interaction with a extra-tropical features in the NW Atlantic Basin (October 1991). The resulting hybrid system was the one of notoriety (book deals and movie pap) but the more interesting part for me is what took place in the latter stages. The event took on warm core characteristics in the end game, and converted to a more purely tropical system all over again. In all, it was as though Gracie (not sure I'm spelling her name right by the way) first sacrificed herself as a potent potential energy injector and thus resulted hybrid bomb, but when the system looped back over the Gulf Stream, the additional latent heat flux and convective bursting contracted the core and abandoned the wind field in the outer reaches.. Amazing, it was like hurricane goes to hybrid cold core and back to hurricane... If nothing else, that whole week's worth of events certainly challenges the usefulness of putting boundaries on the tropical vs subtropical vs extra-tropical systems; the paradox being that a purely cold core and warm core systems are indeed entirely unique comparatively! But, sparring the digression...
Phillipe or what is left of him I suspect is history and a newer paradigm will have to be dealt with from here on out.. Whether that will mean a system to contend with or merely monitor as it races to the graveyard of the NE Atlantic Basin - I haven't even approached those possibilities given fantastic .
As far as you insinuation and relay over Dr. Gray... On thing I find interesting if not peculiar about this season's tropical fare is that we haven't really seen rapid deepeners from just off the African Coast.. Many of these waves certainly have been contributors, perhaps primarily so, once they made it to about 55W - more like 60+ however - but as far as having a strong tropical cyclone between African and the Leewards, that area of the ocean still has tremendous heat potential do to lack of processing...Errrr, that is, I tink toe... I may be wrong about that....but it seems to me that absence of significant activity is stowed energy in the SST. It's a bit of a mystery to me as well because the Azores high ridge has been dominant most of the summer, which in conventional wisdom means there are ample deep layer easterlies and lower shear stresses on westward moving impulses underneath...
Fascinating...
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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If the ridge over Texas shifts eastward, then that would likely induce a temporary turn back to the WNW before the storm resumes moving NW around the high. If a high simply builds in from the north of , then the current motion would likely continue with perhaps a further east landfall compared to the first scenario. The latest run suggests a NW motion more towards western LA, but then a slight shift westward as it gets closer to the coast, taking the storm in near the TX/LA border. Whether this happens, I don't know, but it is possible that will take more a stair-step motion towards the coast, moving NW in the near future, then turning a little more to the WNW, before finally turning back NW before landfall.
The latest also slows the system somewhat before landfall and stalls the system not too far inland. The trend for slower movement before landfall would suggest a weaker storm at landfall, but a prolonged battering of the coast and excessive rainfall. Regardless, it appears that the steering currents will become less defined with time (perhaps that is already happening), which increases the possible error in the forecast.
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