scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Nothing new to the track on , A path towards the Tx La coastline. Still my 3 day path was from Galveston to Lake Charles. I will tend more towards Lake Charles as i said in some privete emails 2-3 days ago but Galveston isnt out of the woods. Again I feel La is like Fl last year in hits.
BTW the upper-low way N of berumda wants to try to come down into the mid-levels now. Im still interested in this area even though again no models are doing anything with this.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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I'm new to this forum....what does this mean, "Graveyard"?
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
I'm new to this forum....what does this mean, "Graveyard"?
It means that the post was moved to a different forum because it was either irrevalent, overly speculative, completely crazy, pointless, idle chitchat, infamitory towards another user etc etc etc...
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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oil trader
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
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I do not know it is important for this discussion or not. Oil market is betting right now for a weaker and more right landfall. It is not weather information and I am not going to emphasize the implicit efficiency of financial markets, but it is just a barometer of what the consensus is heading.
I personal think that Galvestone/Houston have already bought this storm (west camp). On the side of the strength I do expect a much softer landfall.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I'm interested to see what will set the intensity to in the 2pm update. The wind data thus far from the latest recon reports suggest the max winds are no higher than 120 knots, but the surface pressure (915 mb) normally supports much stronger winds than that. The apparent that is taking place is likely the cause of the large decrease in max winds and some of the decrease may just be temporary, assuming the pressure continues to hold steady or only slowly rise.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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winds are down to 150, im expecting landfall intensity now between 125-135, about the intensity of Celia (70) and Allen (80) at landfall
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Lsr1166
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
Loc: Tallahassee, Florida
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 221735
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
...RITA WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER...REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE...
...
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.
...
REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.5 N... 89.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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I have an email into a friend in oil now to see how the markets treat this. If I'm not too far off subject, I'll post what I find out. I do think that a TX/LA border hit with a high Cat 3 would be less devistating thatn any direct hit in the Houston area. I note that oil is $66.75 today, down from $68.
The real impact of this will be heating oil, whixh is up 80% this year.
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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Check out the 12Z run.....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Rita will now slide backwards into Mexico after landfall??? 
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raine
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Evans GA.
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Hi guys I am a newbie, Is the weaking because of the ??
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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GFDL now brings onshore east of Galveston with 120mph winds; weakens it slightly and brings it in at the TX/LA border
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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The and the UKMET each have the storm coming in on the TX/LA border, and never going any farther north than the LA northern border...will be a huge rain event for people in this location as well as east of the storm
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
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if what you find out is not good for this forum, could you post what you find in a new forum? or send me a pm
.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The new also brings in very close to Galveston. I hope nobody in the Houston/Galveston area is letting their guard down because the buzz seems to have shifted to a more northward landfall.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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That is correct, and in fact, if you take note of the ir imagery during the last several hours, significant deeper reds have returned and occasionally wrap complete around the ... To this meteorologist, that is a preliminary indication that the recent well advertised is completing. As this new ring of convection persists the new eye wall will contract and you will see the winds elevate smartly later on... potential
peace
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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I received this email from my ex sis in law who has 4 kids and no husband. She's a cool cookie I say.
We can not leave because there is NO GASOLINE to be purchased anywhere. All the stations have sold out and a huge evacuation is in progress. It's 1 a.m. now & the streets are bumper to bumper. We went to the grocery store....all the water is sold out...all the peanut butter, etc....it's incredible. Those who plan to stay have asked me for permission to use my swimming pool water if necessary---for drinking and for flushing their toilets.
It took me 3 hours to drive home from work (24miles distance). I have not heard from Patricia or Danny yet. I have at times been unable to use my cell phone because it's so 'busy'. I was able to contact Dad's phone & leave a message. My home phone has been disconnected----because Robert was making phone calls on it in the middle of the night and ran up a long distance bill---so, decreased those happenings fairly easily='plan disconnect'...Ha. So at the moment we just have the cell phone.
Brooklynne and I tried driving to another town....no luck...no gas....people are leaving in droves with their BOATS and CAMPERS----and some with luggage strapped on top their vehicles. The stress level is very high---drivers yelling at each other---no rules of courtesy for the road!
There are 4 families on our street who are planning to stay. They have taped their windows and have sandbags.....some of them feel we would only get strong winds. They also told me how they plan to cook food and between everyone on the street we should have enough food for all.
On the radio they were talking about winds that would blow your door open and possibly expect broken windows and roof damage....who knows. However, plan "B" is we could possible siphon gas from Marc's '75 Oldsmobile if necessary.
I'm going to bed. We'll work on this in the morning. ( I could have done without the knowledge that my housing edition had been built upon a previous rice growing field....it was an excellent spot for flooding and growing rice!). Twenty yrs ago they grew a lot of rice in Katy--the main crop.
More later,
LaCresha
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Marji, can you be more specific? What was sent to the Graveyard... I've been over there and didn't find anything I wrote - not sure what you're meaning.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
Average Period (APD): 10.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): ENE ( 76 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.14 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 54.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 69.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 33.1 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.14 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.22 in ( Falling Rapidly )
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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Quote:
That is correct, and in fact, if you take note of the ir imagery during the last several hours, significant deeper reds have returned and occasionally wrap complete around the ... To this meteorologist, that is a preliminary indication that the recent well advertised is completing. As this new ring of convection persists the new eye wall will contract and you will see the winds elevate smartly later on... potential
peace
yes, the storm is now back in intesification mode clearly. the is saying further weakening -- i see this thing strengthening to 165 again in the next 12 hours. it is about to cross back over to the warm eddy in the loop current, and i think we are seeing those high tops forming again because of it.
could someone post the links to the local weather tv stations webcast?
edit: the death toll will come from inland flooding this time. people inland along the tx/la border need to evacuate too. i don't think people realize this at this time. very terrible flooding about to occur inland.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
Edited by funky (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:29 PM)
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