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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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DougBaker
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Re: new plots by NHC [Re: funky]
      #56421 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:25 PM


Just another area I am interested in, but this time it overlaps hurricane interest.

Jsc = Johnson Space Center is in Houston
From:
www.nasawatch.com

Its Going to Get Rough at JSC
Editor's note: Word has it that ride out team at JSC is now being evacuated.


What Could Happen to JSC
NASA JSC Visual Impact of a Category 4 Storm on the Galveston Study Area

- The Design Storm: Hurricane Carla September 5-11, 1961
- A large, slow-moving storm that made landfall near Port Lavaca
- Sustained winds of 150 mph (Category 4)
- Peak wind gusts of 175 mph
- Storm surge of 22 feet (Matagorda Bay) 18.5 feet (Port Lavaca), 14.5 feet (Port O’Connor), 14.8 feet (Houston Ship Channel)
- Rainfall of 16.49 inches (Galveston), 6.25 inches (Victoria), 5.15 inches (Corpus Christi)

Here is a link
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=18144


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


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Re: Left out Info... [Re: Beach]
      #56423 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:28 PM

surfs up dude! now where did I put that blasted surf board?

I dunno why NHC is forcasting weakening when it looks pretty obvious by where its going/what its doing that it's re-strengthening...I mean if you wait long enough, ALL hurricanes weaken but immediately it looks to be getting stronger.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Left out Info... [Re: Psyber]
      #56424 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:34 PM

May just be opinion here but from what i'm seeing on sat presentation she's holding her own as a utter catastrophic threat, as opposed to re-strengthening to surreal horror such as overnight last night...

But...i do see your point about the fact that her more polarward motion than expected is taking closer to deeper oceanic heat content... that "should" augment official expectations but we've yet to see much newer anticipation for a deeper system...

We may be splitting hairs though...what the difference if you got 135mph or cat-5; you're talking about the difference between utter destruction and obliteration...


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funky
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Left out Info... [Re: Psyber]
      #56425 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:38 PM

Quote:

surfs up dude! now where did I put that blasted surf board?

I dunno why NHC is forcasting weakening when it looks pretty obvious by where its going/what its doing that it's re-strengthening...I mean if you wait long enough, ALL hurricanes weaken but immediately it looks to be getting stronger.




yeah i think sometimes ed and the gang spend too much time in interviews and not enough time looking at the data. but they are doing a good job at saying that it isn't going to make much of a difference in the outcome.

i just wish the media and therefore the local governments would pickup on the catastrophic inland flooding about to occur. damn, here in sarasota, fl, we had more rain in 2 days than we had in the last month.

--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25


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funky
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Re: Left out Info... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56426 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:40 PM

Quote:

We may be splitting hairs though...what the difference if you got 135mph or cat-5; you're talking about the difference between utter destruction and obliteration...




exactly. i don't know if you saw that little piece with anderson cooper when the hotel sign got ripped apart live on cnn. they had a gust to 120 mph, and literally it looked like the earth was ending. i can't even imagine sustained winds at 120mph. unreal.

--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Left out Info... [Re: funky]
      #56427 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:45 PM

check it: http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml

...not to be mistaken, that's an impressive band for that range!!


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


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Re: Left out Info... [Re: funky]
      #56428 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:47 PM

This is for all to look at. Look at the 2nd graphic and read the headlines below it. Astounding that Accuweather would make such a statement as that.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&article=4


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Convergence
Weather Watcher


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Re: Left out Info... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56429 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:49 PM

Pressure seems to be down to 914.

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modeleste
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Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Steve H1]
      #56430 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:51 PM

Once again it is headed east of the adjusted forecast center by about the same margin as has been consistent over the last day.

You can see it here (trop fcst pts on) until it gets next to the next forecast center point and that is adjusted to fit reality.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Left out Info... [Re: funky]
      #56431 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:54 PM

nya - didn't catch that... they're ridiculous sometimes.... wx channel stick cantori out on a peer in a ferocious gale and hype up like it's that way down town!

i swear, news media is taking over the world - like in that song "American Idiot" - i think it's called.

regarding winds: here's the way i like to look at it... go down the highway at 75mph when the cops are looking...and stick your arm out the window...that force you feel exponentially increases for every increment of 10mph you tact onto the wind velocity. i think it may even go by the square - but it's been awhile since tropical meteorology (i was drunk my senior year) anyway, if you think you have trouble holding your arm up against a 75mph wind blasing by your car, imagine a wind 16 times stronger (or 4 incements of ten implie 4-squared)...

isn't that right??? help me out here


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The Force 2005
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Re: new plots by NHC [Re: modeleste]
      #56432 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:58 PM

O.K. I must say it. When you say headed East, it is not! Remember N/S/E/W are Lat/Long lines of degrees. Yes if you plot the forcasted track, the correct statement is that the actual position of Rita is East of intended track. Don't get people thinking that all of a sudden, Rita turned and is heading East now.

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Psyber
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Re: new plots by NHC [Re: modeleste]
      #56433 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:59 PM

Well honestly, NHC's track has been west on every single update. They haven't gauged Rita very well but to be fair to them, I really don't think that there is enough strong data to possibly track it reliably. A voodoo doctor (if they weren't all washed out from louisiana by Katrina) would have just as much luck at gauging the track by reading chicken bones, since there is such an utter lack of strong systems to steer Rita.

Recon showing strengthening eh? It still looks a little ragged. Lets HOPE it doesn't turn into the solid wall we saw last night. I hope someone recorded that because I don't know if i've ever seen a wall that solid before.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


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Re: Left out Info... [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56434 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:02 PM

re Accuweather...definitly sunk to a new low but doesn't surprise me really...wonder why it always has to be a pissing contest?

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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


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Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Psyber]
      #56435 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:03 PM

If the ERC is complete, I would anticipate for the re-generation of that eye-wall to possibly up to 165MPH again. Why, cause it is going to go over the Loop Current and travel along it for possibly the next 24 hrs. Maybe even stronger. Lets hope not.

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modeleste
Verified CFHC User


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Re: new plots by NHC [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56436 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:03 PM

Quote:

O.K. I must say it. When you say headed East, it is not! Remember N/S/E/W are Lat/Long lines of degrees. Yes if you plot the forcasted track, the correct statement is that the actual position of Rita is East of intended track. Don't get people thinking that all of a sudden, Rita turned and is heading East now.




I was refering to the graphic I linked to. It is east of the predicted location (the red dot) by about the same margin that it has been east of the previous red dots.


But yes it is heading NW.


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funky
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Left out Info... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56437 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:03 PM

Quote:

nya - didn't catch that... they're ridiculous sometimes.... wx channel stick cantori out on a peer in a ferocious gale and hype up like it's that way down town!

i swear, news media is taking over the world - like in that song "American Idiot" - i think it's called.

regarding winds: here's the way i like to look at it... go down the highway at 75mph when the cops are looking...and stick your arm out the window...that force you feel exponentially increases for every increment of 10mph you tact onto the wind velocity. i think it may even go by the square - but it's been awhile since tropical meteorology (i was drunk my senior year) anyway, if you think you have trouble holding your arm up against a 75mph wind blasing by your car, imagine a wind 16 times stronger (or 4 incements of ten implie 4-squared)...

isn't that right??? help me out here




ok, i'll help you out. jump out of a plane (with a parachute of course). i skydived for years and let me tell you, 135 mph wind in your face hurts if you aren't used to it. throw in some debris and you are toast. i don't think people understand the exponential (logarithmic) scale that increasing winds bring.

--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25


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rwstoney
Registered User


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Wind Strength [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56438 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:04 PM

I haven't heard of wind strength doubling every 10 mph before. Do you know of any references to support it? I don't see why that would be true.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Left out Info... [Re: funky]
      #56439 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:09 PM

At least we are on the same page..
Where do you honestly think this is going to landfall... Not that you asked, of course, but I am thinking Port Arthur over to East Cote Blanche Bay in central Louisiana...

I'm saying this because currently there is a building mid-tropospheric high pressure extending to the surface near Georgia and their is also high pressure persisting over TX... Currently, there is a relative void in Mississippi... Intuitively, this tend to balance a pathways toward said area... Or not.


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CoalCracker
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Re: Wind Strength [Re: rwstoney]
      #56440 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:11 PM

See if I can claify here relative to the effects of the various catagories. Believe someone posted this before and think I have it correct. If not, feel free to alter.

The damage of a Cat 2 hurricane is 10x that of a Cat 1
The damage of a Cat 3 hurricane is 10 x 10 or 100x that of a Cat 1
The damage of a Cat 4 hurricane is 10 x 10 x 10 or 1000x that of a Cat 1
The damage of a Cat 5 hurricane is 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 or 10000x that of a Cat 1


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Wind Strength [Re: rwstoney]
      #56441 - Thu Sep 22 2005 03:13 PM

Quote:

I haven't heard of wind strength doubling every 10 mph before. Do you know of any references to support it? I don't see why that would be true.




It is the physics of the force of the wind based on energy. It has been years since I looked at any fluid dynamics. There are physics formulas. It is the basis of the Saffir-Simpson scale. That is why there is nothing above a Cat 5.

--------------------
Jim


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