bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
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This is for all to look at. Look at the 2nd graphic and read the headlines below it. Astounding that Accuweather would make such a statement as that.
http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&article=4
These look like totally different products to me. The Accuweather graphic seems to be based on the storm following the center line and the product seems to show numericaly their lack of confidence in the center line forecast.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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The Accuweather/NHC issue does raise some interesting questions. I can see the logic of only one official met source on tropical storms, but the same thinking does not carry over to winter storms. NOAA does not have any exclusivity on blizzards...every met in an affected area takes a shot at it. Yet, you could argue that a blizzard hitting NYC, for example, might be as debiliating as a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane.
IMHO.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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No...it's definitely not a linear... But as I insinuated, I wasn't sure. Come to think about it, the relationship when increasing wind velocity and the amount of force the wind imparts on exposed surfaces, goes like: the lower end of cat 3 (111 mph) to the lower end of cat 1 (74 and change) doubles the amount of force
In any event, my apologies for not being more specific; the exact relationship formula has slipped my mind. If you go on the web and Google "wind speed to force relationship" or phrases similar, you can find material... Otherwise, I'm too lazy to go all the way down stairs and them through my old texts!
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modeleste
Verified CFHC User
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At least we are on the same page..
Where do you honestly think this is going to landfall... .
If betting: Vermillion Bay
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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if anything, i think we are seeing some good news (if you can call it that)...the center and ne quadrant will most likely land somewhere around Calcasieu Lake to Cypremort Point State Park. This is a good thing right? I am not from the area, but seeing it on the maps, it looks mostly to be unpopulated areas. n.o. will be spared, and so will houston/galveston if the trend continues....we can only hope now...
btw, i'm updating my landfall point to Cypremort Point State Park area. wake up
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
These look like totally different products to me. The Accuweather graphic seems to be based on the storm following the center line and the product seems to show numericaly their lack of confidence in the center line forecast.
I think it's true that there is a lack of confidence when it comes to making predictions regarding this storm. ~24-hours, the landfall point was Matagorda Bay (see, I'm learning that geography), now it is east of Galveston, and still the satellite data suggests it isn't far enough east. How can you have a lot of confidence when every time you change the prediction, the storm goes even more to the east of the new prediction?
Those mets must be as frustrated with as they were with Ophelia...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Thu Sep 22 2005 03:24 PM)
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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Quote:
Quote:
At least we are on the same page..
Where do you honestly think this is going to landfall... .
If betting: Vermillion Bay
i here ya. vermillion bay is about to be wrecked. look how close N.O. is when this landfalls.....scary.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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It will be interesting tonight on FNC and CNN. Joe "B" and others are making their rounds I believe starting at 8PM. The schedule is up on their website.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Ok folks, You all are starting to nitpick the forecast way too much. The storm is well within the cone and the margins of error. Hurricane warnings are up in all of the areas that you all are talking about. Yes, there has been a error bias to the right. It is not outside of a warned area. You are talking about a 30 mile shift. If I am within 100 miles of that line at the coast, ie within the cone, I am getting out of town. The center line is not the focus. I think after and that people in the area should understand the cone by now.
Worrying about the center line is about as intelligent as the stock market rallying becuase the winds speed dropped five miles an hour to get it to a Cat 4.
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Jim
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J K
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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Quote:
No...it's definitely not a linear... But as I insinuated, I wasn't sure. Come to think about it, the relationship when increasing wind velocity and the amount of force the wind imparts on exposed surfaces, goes like: the lower end of cat 3 (111 mph) to the lower end of cat 1 (74 and change) doubles the amount of force
In any event, my apologies for not being more specific; the exact relationship formula has slipped my mind. If you go on the web and Google "wind speed to force relationship" or phrases similar, you can find material... Otherwise, I'm too lazy to go all the way down stairs and them through my old texts!
To answer your question, the relationship between kinetic energy and velocity is KE=1/2mass times (velocity squared) or KE=1/2 m*(v^2). And enery is any force (of a wind) times a distance. Therefore, you can relate the Force of the wind is proportional to the velocity squared of the wind. Plug in any two wind speeds to find the difference in the energy.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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here's a pretty shot
She's looking for her landfall point 
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Louisianans have got to be about as beleaguered as can possibly be! Talk about over kill...
It is unsettling to see this NNW jog materializing in these very recent ir frames!
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Clark
Meteorologist
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From the Accuweather link:
"AccuWeather feels that this forecast is virtually useless."
I'm sorry, but they are putting themselves out of business with that statement right there. They have already been under the gun for their practices and this will only serve to further light that fire. Accuweather's actions lately have exposed themselves.
No one in their right mind can say that Houston/Galveston has a 90% chance of hurricane-force winds. What about the people on the LA/TX border who are now directly in the path of the storm? Are they so confident in themselves on the path of that such areas have such a low chance of receiving such winds?
Quite frankly, it is my informed opinion that Accuweather's products and forecasts are useless. Bastardi may occasionally provide some useful insight, but that's about it.
</soapbox>
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
Louisianans have got to be about as beleaguered as can possibly be! Talk about over kill...
It is unsettling to see this NNW jog materializing in these very recent ir frames!
Absolutely.... I was just thinking the same thing.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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D'oh, completely obvious but thanks! No...your right...
They should have:
cat 1
cat 2
cat 3
cat 4
cat 5
cat "ludicrous speed"
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Terra,
check this out! Not only the jog in question, but the is expanding again!
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Clark,
After reading the 1PM CDT update for , I'm a little perplexed. It stated that was 435 SE of Galveston moving at 9MPH. It also shows that landfall will be sometime around 7AM on Saturday. This is my question:
At 9PMH over 43 HRS is only 387 miles. What happen to the other 50 miles that is stated in the perdiction of landfall?
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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no kidding...look at the last GOES IR...solid deepening. I'll be VERY surprised if the next official release doesn't show either a wind increase or a pressure drop or BOTH!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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rhendryx
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Tampa, FL
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I don't want to speak for Clark, but assuming the figures you have quoted are correct, it would seem the is anticipating a change in forward speed.
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Dougyd
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: Sanibel
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That means, if you double the speed, you quadruple the force.
A 150 mph hurricane will cause 4 times the force (damage?) as a 75 mph hurricane.
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