Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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If the outer eyewall is contracting, then the cycle could be nearing completion. Timing will be critical here... the discussion mentioned that will be moving over another warm eddy in 12-24 hours. If the system is fully recovered from the by then, it could see some reintensification.
They really nailed the eye with that last dropsonde... the mean boundary layer wind was 3 knots.
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Brian S
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Hello everyone, I am kind of new to the board but I have been checking the site out for a while. Just wanted to share this since I have not seen it posted yet but the pressure back down to 911.
601
URNT12 KNHC 222107Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2043Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
89 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2320 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 124 DEG 123 KT
G. 033 DEG 12 NM
H. 911 MB
I. 12 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3064 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C015-40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A OB 46
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Not that all hurricanes must be well behaved, but it does seem correct logic calls for winds to increase. The reason I say this is because:
a) 913mb pressure is quite a low value for a wind of 145mph.
b) There simply is no denying, satellite representation in the IR has increased in both size and amount of colder clouds now nicely circular during the day *(watch, no sooner do I click submit and this will reverse - but you get the point)*
...In the waning phases of EWRC, the new eyewall begins to contract. In general the mechanics of how and when eyewall cycles occur is as you know, not well understodd. But, essentially, even in hurricanes balancing pressure gradient force is necessary. In lay-person's terms, the surrounding atmosphere is exerting a pressure rushing inward to fill the void of a region that is about 100mb less than the ambient pressure field amid 's surroundings. The new eyewall after cyclic change is unstably too far from the eye because the angular velocity of the rotating column is not sufficient to balance this ambient pressure gradient force - that's what causes the contraction...
...Enter the ice skater... As the arms and legs assume a virtical posture the rate of rotion spins up in velocity.
In the end, having a core pressure of 913mb has to rise, or the winds have to increase, and it is likely that with deeper convection currently blossoming amid the , it will be the winds that do the compensating...
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Well said and with pressure down a little again and eyewall contracting winds must be increasing.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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URNT12 KNHC 222107Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2043Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
89 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2320 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 124 DEG 123 KT
G. 033 DEG 12 NM
H. 911 MB
I. 12 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3064 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C015-40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A OB 46
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING
...By the way, the above vortex statement seems to concur with theory at this time...
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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low pressure is not always a guarantee that the wind will correspond to what it "normally" should--in 2002 Hurricane Isidore had winds of 125 mph and pressure of 932 mb; the larger the circulation the lower the pressure can be without having corresponding winds
update: the last frame shows the eye wobble WNW when it has been moving pretty much NW all day
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
Hello everyone, I am kind of new to the board but I have been checking the site out for a while. Just wanted to share this since I have not seen it posted yet but the pressure back down to 911.
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING
hey brian nice to see you! Probably the most important note from your post is the last line..sounds like the is ending/over which is probably bad news because it means that is going to stabalize and probably strengthen since it has a whole lot of warm deep water to go over....
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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ParrishNStPeteFL
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Loc: Pinellas County, St. Petersbur...
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HI there, Im a new member, but have been reading here since last year. I live in St. Pete, and we have been getting banding rains all day. Mostly drizzle, but occasional wind gusts...have not been down to the beaches, but locals are saying 7ft surge on our little coast. Im curious as to how will navigate once she reaches land.
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The energy you emit will return to you, have grace and gratitude in all you do.
'Lil Weather Bug
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Also, it is a good opportunity to point out that recon does not always sample the most appropriate part of the eyewall in these situations. Often, TPC will over or under scale their winds because satellite and/or ship obs do not always concur - for example.
I am almost wondering if the recon fixes used for the 5pm were not using the best sample, because the above vortex message essentially arrived on its heels.
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bobbutts
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Loc: New Hampshire
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This may help with the motion drama. Depending on how long you have been averaging the motion and what you consider the borderline between WNW and NW you could say it is either. Trend appears to be clearly bending more towards the NW but even connecting the dots that support that the most it is still slightly west of true NW.
(evidence attached)
So in my opinion everyone is correct. If it were my forecast I'd say NW but I don't disagree with WNW or the reasoning for it either.
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ParrishNStPeteFL
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Loc: Pinellas County, St. Petersbur...
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Hiya neighbor, im a little north of you. Hope things in Sarasota don't get out of hand.
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The energy you emit will return to you, have grace and gratitude in all you do.
'Lil Weather Bug
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modeleste
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
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Quote:
So in my opinion everyone is correct. If it were my forecast I'd say NW but I don't disagree with WNW or the reasoning for it either.
Seems to me that one group is focused on current direction and the other on rate of change in direction and/or trend in deviation from forecast.
All of which seem like valid things to consider-- & ones which could change.
Edited by modeleste (Thu Sep 22 2005 09:52 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
Quote:
Hello everyone, I am kind of new to the board but I have been checking the site out for a while. Just wanted to share this since I have not seen it posted yet but the pressure back down to 911.
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING
hey brian nice to see you! Probably the most important note from your post is the last line..sounds like the is ending/over which is probably bad news because it means that is going to stabalize and probably strengthen since it has a whole lot of warm deep water to go over....
True...and, take a gander at : http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Wow - that is explosively enlarging in the last hour. I am wondering if 's beginning to translate over well touted warmer waters is beginning to make in immediate impact.
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rmcinorlando
Verified CFHC User
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See how easy it was to express an opinion without making someone else feel stupid?
I am amazed that here in Orlando, we are still getting feeder bands with periods of heavy rain and wind. This storm is big and strong...............
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ParrishNStPeteFL
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Pinellas County, St. Petersbur...
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I hear ya, we have been getting rain and gusts all day in St. Pete...Rita is certainly massive.
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The energy you emit will return to you, have grace and gratitude in all you do.
'Lil Weather Bug
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
I hear ya, we have been getting rain and gusts all day in St. Pete...Rita is certainly massive.
This is the point where someone quips "I went out with a girl named in college...she turned out to be a real B@$@#"  Help everyone relax a bit....
When gets over the Eddy Vortex, will she get alot of energy out of it?
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Does anyone know what the levee situation is New Orleans ....other than the stellar trustworthy Fox News organization?
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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As per http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html that is already taking place
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 222131
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/21:20:40Z
B. 25 deg 53 min N
089 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2337 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 324 deg 102 kt
G. 222 deg 022 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 18 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. CO16/41
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A 01 OB 07
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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Quote:
Does anyone know what the levee situation is New Orleans ....other than the stellar trustworthy Fox News organization?
lol...don't worry, if it fails, Fox News will say it was going to happen anyways, and that no money would have fixed it. and they will also mention that some of the levees were pillaged by the looters.
it definitely looks like it is headed for intensification.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
Edited by funky (Thu Sep 22 2005 10:08 PM)
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