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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Psyber
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: not to belabor the point [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56557 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:09 PM

Quote:

Does anyone know what the levee situation is New Orleans ....other than the stellar trustworthy Fox News organization?




I beleive Fox has an "unconfirmed" report that most of New Orleans is under 30 feet of gator infested, Hepatitus infected water now. Just kidding.

The Eddy Vortex doesn't seem to be that large of an entity. Is it just a convergence of local currents causing a warm zone?

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: not to belabor the point [Re: Psyber]
      #56559 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:13 PM

Quote:



The Eddy Vortex doesn't seem to be that large of an entity. Is it just a convergence of local currents causing a warm zone?




Actually, it doesn't take much... If satan piles the warm water deliberately in Rita's path...err yeah, while making it only look natural, the water may be sufficiently deep above 80F survive immediate upwelling. So, confluence or eddy, take our pick.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: not to belabor the point [Re: funky]
      #56560 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:15 PM

Yeah...I missed the plane crash last night...

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


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oil rigs and refineries.... [Re: Psyber]
      #56561 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:17 PM

I was looking at a map from the Mobile Press Register that shows all the platforms in the gulf...and the refineries on the inland coastal areas.
Right now...she is poised to go inbetween a major group of refineries on the texas,la coast, and the ones near and around baton rouge, new orleans...(I'm thinking 75-125 east of the texas/la line)


if she hits the texas, la coast....there are 5 major refineries there.

she will NOT miss the thousands of oil rig platforms....she ought knock a bunch of them out..since they are
"intelligently" designed for category 3 only, and there are a lot more of them in her path, than was in Katrina's

look for gas to spike to 5.00.....and hold for quite a while if Rita builds to a cat 5, and comes in as a cat 4 or so...


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funky
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: not to belabor the point [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56562 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:17 PM

Quote:



The Eddy Vortex doesn't seem to be that large of an entity. Is it just a convergence of local currents causing a warm zone?




i'm no expert, but it looks like it would be quite a large area of deep warm water. think of it as a whirlpool, like at the end of niagra falls where it goes into a corner area. the water is spun around and thus sinks down before leaving the area. thus, the warm surface water is sucked down deep below the surface. i would think that that is plenty of warm water for Rita to gain strength.

i'm calling for 165 mph winds tomorrow morning, with a gradual decrease as it landfalls at 135-145 mphs. either way, that hurts.

--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


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Re: not to belabor the point [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56563 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:19 PM

Quote:

Does anyone know what the levee situation is New Orleans ....other than the stellar trustworthy Fox News organization?




To be "fair and balanced" (pun intended here), regardless of where this storm goes NO will be affected somehow. The levees are only temporary- sand bags and jury-rigs, according to an acquaintance who just got back from there .

I remember someone earlier saying how the fun has been taken out of tracking this year. I can't ever remember a time before now that this has been true, but...

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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ParrishNStPeteFL
Verified CFHC User


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Re: not to belabor the point [Re: rmcinorlando]
      #56564 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:22 PM

It is pouring and blowing in St. Petersburg at this moment. Unbelievable!

--------------------
The energy you emit will return to you, have grace and gratitude in all you do.
'Lil Weather Bug


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tpratch
Moderator


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Re: not to belabor the point [Re: pryord1]
      #56565 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:23 PM

Quote:


I remember someone earlier saying how the fun has been taken out of tracking this year. I can't ever remember a time before now that this has been true, but...




You can't remember a time before now that this has been true?

Sure, you guys in the panhandle only had Ivan last year. But after Frances, it stopped being fun for me. After Jeanne? Yeah, it stopped being fun until this year. As soon as Katrina hit annular, I stopped having fun this year.

It definitely sucks. I hate to say it, but I'm glad I'm on the East coast of Florida this year. Much better place for now.


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g1bass
Registered User


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Re: forecast track [Re: ParrishNStPeteFL]
      #56566 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:24 PM

Hi I'm also new to posting but not reading this great website., I found this site after Charley, Frances...or maybe it was Jeanne. At any rate I am near Crystal River and we have finally been blessed with a few squalls here today. I say blessed because we havent had any rain on my small farm in 2 weeks. Anyway nice to meet all of you

Gina

--------------------
Storm junkie for 4 yrs


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: not to belabor the point [Re: tpratch]
      #56567 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:25 PM

Heheheh, i'm in Ontario Canada. All we ever get from hurricanes is a little rain from the ones that funnel up the Ohio valley.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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button
Registered User


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Re: not to belabor the point [Re: ParrishNStPeteFL]
      #56568 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:28 PM

Hi all

New to the site and was with u all during Katrina and her mass devastation tracking this site continuously, I am here again through Rita and will be till the end. Can I just say my thoughts are with u all at this time and everyone please stay safe.

Love and best wished from the UK.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: not to belabor the point [Re: pryord1]
      #56569 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:29 PM

I think now more than ever it is utmost important for lay-persons and professionals alike to pay particularly close attention to these; and pleasant blow-back might be a popularity to do so...

This will save lives...

We are (belive it or not) only in the beginnings of a multi-decadal upswing in hurricane frequencies. That doesn't say much for intensities (per seasonal averages) but that the cyclic periodicity of occurrence frequency is on the upswing, right on schedule! Having said that, we are also about mid way through a cyclic upswing in the frequency of boneheads and ding-dong municipalities that actually think the finite prominence of man can withstand the elements of nature, by placing large urban districts and/or vacation depots next to 90F prooving grands for tempest. The other thing, there is conjecture that global warming influence may mean that while the frequency is upswinging, more percentages of those numbers of storms will excell to these terrifying levels.

I think it is imparative that in a burgeoning coastal population that will likely still proceed despite recent assults, that people garner a keener awareness as a kind of a ....cultural motif. That way, when we say that a cat 4 or 5 is bearing down on the next NO, they won't say "NO" way.


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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Simi Valley, CA
Latest Recon [Re: button]
      #56570 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:30 PM

Here's the latest recon info:

294
URNT12 KNHC 222219
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/22:11:00Z
B. 25 deg 58 min N
089 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2326 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 054 deg 124 kt
G. 312 deg 019 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 9 C/ 3065 m
J. 19 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. CO14/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A Rita01 OB 11
MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 21:24:10 Z


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Allison
Weather Guru


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Loc: Laredo, Texas
New Thread [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56571 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:31 PM


New thread up now...

--------------------
Allison


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rwstoney
Registered User


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Re: Wind Strength [Re: Pablo712]
      #56572 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:34 PM

Thanks to typhoon tip, JK and Dougyd for helping me understand the relationship between wind speed and wind force. Sorry I had to leave for a little bit and couldn't reply till now.

In summary:
Wind force is a function of the square of wind speed.
If you multiply by the constant 0.004 you get a mph to psf calculation.
Here are some hurricane related winds speeds and their related wind forces.

ts 39 mph 6.1 psf
cat1 74 mph 21.9 psf
cat2 96 mph 36.9 psf
cat3 111 mph 49.3 psf
cat4 131 mph 68.6 psf
cat5 155 mph 96.1 psf

Thanks again for helping me understand this.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: Latest Recon [Re: zmdz01]
      #56573 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:37 PM

...ahhh I guess it must be true but it is hard to believe when looking at every satellite technology known to man that the eyewall isn't mad of lead everywhere...

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g1bass
Registered User


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Re: not to belabor the point [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56574 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:37 PM

the frequency of boneheads and ding-dong municipalities that actually think the finite prominence of man can withstand the elements of nature, by placing large urban districts and/or vacation depots next to 90F prooving grands for tempest.
Quote:






How poetic, I love that "90F proving grounds for tempest." We also shouldnt forget the decimation of our wetlands and how this one thing makes even more vulnerable. Government in Florida has given carte blanche to the large developer and developed something ridiculously called Wetland Mitigation, where another parcel of land can be left undeveloped to offset the development of sensitive wetlands.

--------------------
Storm junkie for 4 yrs


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: latest recon [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56579 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:40 PM

Ok....let me correct my self:
294
URNT12 KNHC 222219
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/22:11:00Z
B. 25 deg 58 min N
089 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2326 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 054 deg 124 kt
G. 312 deg 019 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 9 C/ 3065 m
J. 19 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. CO14/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A Rita01 OB 11
MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 21:24:10 Z ......Is a good example of theory. Although, OPEN E is a bit strange.


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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Simi Valley, CA
Re: latest recon [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56581 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:45 PM

Typhoon_tip:

Notice the difference in the outer eyewall diameter, it is reducing in size with each recon report. Eventually the outer eyewall will become the dominant eyewall and effectively cutoff the inner eyewall from moisture/momentum. Eventually, the inner eyewall will deteriorate.

Here's a link to a NOAA website for more info:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html


Edited by zmdz01 (Thu Sep 22 2005 06:52 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Loc: Twin Cities
hi all [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56585 - Thu Sep 22 2005 06:53 PM

Rita's tropical force windfield has expanded since this morning. However hurricane-force winds for now do not extend very far from the eye.

Waves and wind peaked around 4:30pm on buoy 42001, fairly near to the eye. Waves reached almost 40 feet.

Outflow to the south appears to be limited now, and while I am not certain, it appears to be due to wind shear. The upper level air divergence is no longer right over Rita but to her NE.

It appears Rita will go over the warm loop current eddy (the one to the west of the deep eddy that Katrina passed over) while completing the ERC, tonight. She has already reorganized with a solid core and increased convection during the day, and has managed to keep a very low pressure during the ERC, and impressive temp diff, instead of going up to 935mb or thereabouts, so I would expect additional strengthening the next 12 hours along with the reorganization. From the sat wv images, it appears that dry air did work its way around the edge during the day today but did not get into a farily large central core area.

It appears the edge of that high in TX moved NE over into ARK today, and just over the OK border now into KS. It seems like Rita is pushing that other high that was over AL and GA north and east into the Carolinas. It seems to me that unless the H over TX moves further east at a faster rate, and not as far north, Rita is going to track up along the east of it, more east of the existing TX/LA landfall, to somwhere between Lake Charles and Baton Rouge.

It seems lke that high is pivoting around a point near Dallas Ft Worth area. It if does that, and rolls into upper LA, upper MS, and the western edge of TN, I can see the storm sliding along the bottom of it, to just NE of a Galveston/Houston landfall.

This was confusing to me as neither of these points to the TX/LA landfall currently forecast. The way I have resolved this is I believe this track forecast is based on the high moving rather quickly over to the MS/TN valley, causing Rita's track to flatten out to the west.

Rita has slowed down, so I believe that the key to the track will be the speed of the high, moving east, vs Rita's speed, and how far north the high goes as it moves east.

To understand that I guess you'd have to look further to the western and midwestern US, which I don't know how to do yet.

Sorry if this was already stated...I haven't had a chance to catch up and read the board yet.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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