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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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The Force 2005
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Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: pryord1]
      #56322 - Thu Sep 22 2005 10:36 AM

OK, let me stand on my soapbox. Rick, I am not trying to say anything about a rant about you commenting on N.O.. You are correct in your own opinion on this forum. I am not against anything you post. It seem odd the N.O. were two letters you write about often. I myself see that the track is possibly shifting North as well as East. I agree with you that maybe, N.O is not out of the woods yet, but as HankFrank has stated, he sees nothing that would indicate a majotr change in the direction of track to include the N.O. area inside any particular cone. There if I offened anyone, I certainly appologize to Rick and to all those who think I did. Everyone's opinion is accepted on this forum. For as long as it does not go to the graveyard.

Edited by The Force 2005 (Thu Sep 22 2005 10:42 AM)


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Psyber
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Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: heynow]
      #56323 - Thu Sep 22 2005 10:36 AM

And NOLA about to start taking some heavy bands of rain/wind in a couple hours too...

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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pryord1
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Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: pryord1]
      #56324 - Thu Sep 22 2005 10:36 AM

Here is a website that calculates distance "as the crow flies" from one city to another. It can give you an indication of how your area might be affected by any given storm. I just thought it might be interesting to you.


http://www.indo.com/distance/

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Terra
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The Cone... [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56325 - Thu Sep 22 2005 10:45 AM

You know... it's funny (not necessarily in a good sense, however) to talk to people about their perceptions of a storm's impending danger. A couple days ago, when Rita was still a tropical storm (for what seemed forever before the sudden explosion), most of Louisiana, including New Orleans, was in the 'cone.' The reason this area was in the cone was because the storm was very far away and the cone grows dramatically with distance from landfall... all pretty reasonable. Anyway, when I talked to people in my area, they were all pretty concerned about NO taking damage from Rita...

Progress forward a couple of days.... New Orleans is no longer in the cone, because the storm is closer to its landfall, and the 'error' is more 'certain'. However, the storm forecast is (as we have been discussing all morning) tracking more east, and is already east of that new forecast track. That worries me because I can think outside the cone... (well, it's a rain thing for me... drainage ditches are blocked with debris, rain will make me flood). Again, I talk to people and the same people who were freaking out when we were in the tropical storm's cone a few days ago, have no concern whatsoever about NO having any problems due to this storm...

Interesting... but, certainly not comforting...

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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LisaMaria65
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Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56326 - Thu Sep 22 2005 10:48 AM

Quote:

OK, let me stand on my soapbox. Rcik, I am not trying to say anything about a rant about you commenting on N.O.. You are correct in your own opinion on this forum. I am not against anything you post. It seem odd the N.O. were two letters you write about often. I myself see that the track is possibly shifting North as well as East. I agree with you that maybe, N.O is not out of the woods yet, but as HankFrank has stated, he sees nothing that would indicate a majotr change in the direction of track to include the N.O. area inside any particular cone. There if I offened anyone, I certainly appologize to Rick and to all those who think I did. Everyone's opinion is accepted on this forum. For as long as it does not go to the graveyard.




I don't think Rick is trying to "target" New Orleans or saying New Orleans will be Ground Zero.
When you hear Louisiana, people naturally think New Orleans simply because it's so well known. I believe what Rick is trying to state is that the storm will hit in Louisiana, west of New Orleans more than likely but even if that is the case, New Orleans will suffer. I am in Lafayette, Louisiana. If it hits us, as Lili did in 2003, New Orleans will definately feel the wrath of Rita. With that being said, it will cause major trouble for New Orleans. I think that is what Rick is trying to convey. If it hits at Vinton, La, New Orleans may be spared any real flooding. Anything west of Vinton, I think New Orleans will get some water.

If Rick were to use say, Crowley or Rayne, Louisiana rather than New Orleans, it would not give most people any real direction when it comes to Louisiana. Everyone is very familiar with New Orleans and I think that is probably why he uses that not to mention, there is a real threat of potential flooding if the storm does hit in south Louisiana.

I don't think he's saying New Orleans will get a direct hit, just that it will get flooding if the storm lands in SW La, which would unfortunately be my area!!

--------------------
Lived through Betsy ('65), Camile ('69), Edith ('71), Carmen ('74), Danny ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05), Gustav ('08)....Who's next?


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The Force 2005
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Re: The Cone... [Re: Terra]
      #56328 - Thu Sep 22 2005 10:54 AM

Tera,

I don't ever recall that N.O was ever from- the- get- go when Rita entered the Gulf that was ever inside any cone that was forecasted.


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bobbutts
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Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #56330 - Thu Sep 22 2005 10:56 AM

Looks to me like she's been trending on the east edge of every cone they put out even when the cone shifts east. Sometimes I wish the experts would use thier eyes and climatology instead of outdated NHC cones and computer models that for whatever reason are not being accurate. I know that following each wobble is not going to yield accuracy, but it appear that often very persistant trends are ignored or discounted. I guess we'll see at 11 what the new cone is and how this plays out. I have no idea where it's going to end up and I'm glad it's not my job to try and guess that. The NHC did such an accurate job forecasting Katrina that many may expect them to nail every storm now. These things are still very complex and error is to be expected days ahead.

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heynow
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Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: LisaMaria65]
      #56331 - Thu Sep 22 2005 10:57 AM

LisaMarie:

What is your take? I think I am boarding up this afternoon and leaving tonight. I am just not sure where I am going to go. I have a place to stay in Dallas, but I don't want to deal with the traffic. Also, there is the possibity that Rita could dump tons of rain on Dallas . Definitely don't want to go east or west.

--------------------
I've lived through Danny ('85), Juan ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05) and Gustav ('08).


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Psyber
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Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: LisaMaria65]
      #56332 - Thu Sep 22 2005 10:57 AM

Well, if you beleive CNN, and Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson, NO is a target for Hurricanes because it is full of African Americans.

Honestly, it's pretty darn close to NO. There's definately at least going to be a glancing blow, no matter if it keeps it's N N-W heading or not. Will the levee's hold with the rain they most definately will get/increased storm surge? Hard to say, but NO certainly doesn't need anymore water in any form, we can all agree.

Personally, when I look at the track it's taking, it's definately east of the NHC by a considerable margin. I'm sure the 11am will hopefully correct it.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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Terra
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Re: The Cone... [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56333 - Thu Sep 22 2005 10:58 AM

I'm talking several days ago when it was still a tropical storm... not anytime recent and the cone was the cone for the 5-day forecast. That's the whole point... when it was a far-away, weak storm, people were more concerned than they are now with a strong storm that keeps tracking closer.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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lunkerhunter
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Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56334 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:00 AM

Hey Force,
I gotta jump in here.....

1. This isn't a chat board.
2. You've clogged up the past few pages with all your opinions.
3. Then you discount everyone else's opinions.

How about you give the keyboard a rest for a while?
thanks.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: LisaMaria65]
      #56335 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:01 AM

I have not seen the latest GFS runs, but previous runs were suggesting that Rita would move NW in the short-term, then resume a WNW motion for awhile, then turn back to the NW as it gets closer to the coast. Assuming the ridge over TX slides east as expected, that is the way you would expect the movement to play out. If the weakness persists, though, Rita will continue to move further north than expected.

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Ed in Va
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Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #56336 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:02 AM

11:00 discussion out (need to scroll down). Now TX/LA border is target:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL18

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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pryord1
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Re: The Cone... [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56337 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:04 AM

Quote:

Tera,

I don't ever recall that N.O was ever from- the- get- go when Rita entered the Gulf that was ever inside any cone that was forecasted.




NO isn't and it hasn't been. Still, the ramifications of its impact will be far-reaching and NO will definately feel the effects of it regardless. However, with the unexpected shift in its forecast track to the NW, the more it follows this pattern, the more danger NO and all points involved in Katrina are grievously impacted.

Listening to Max Mayfield live on CNN now- he says that the official track could ( and probably will) move to the east before landfall. Not good!

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Ron Basso
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Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: Psyber]
      #56338 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:05 AM

Increasingly bad news for LA - the new 12Z NOGAPS has trended east and now shows landfall about 50 miles east of the LA/TX line. Still a good consensus from the other 12Z models further west near Houston/Gal, but the NOGAPS consistently to me is a better model and if it has any bias, it tends to hold ridges a lttle too strong. If I remember correctly, just 24 hours ago, this model had landfall down along the south TX coast.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

--------------------
RJB


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Rita Chugs Westward with 175MPH Winds [Re: oil trader]
      #56339 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:06 AM

Well...actually there are a couple of reason why this could be less (albeit still potent) circumstantially, looking at this morning..
a) The earlier polarward component "may" ultimately mean the track needs to be shifted farther up the coast. Rita's track guidance and reasoning behind has maintained tendency for increasing northerly component. Keeping that in mind, whatever latitude she gains now will be conserved and added. The rest follows... It is entirely possible (not certain) that she will continue to gain latitude ahead of curve and simply end up farther up the coast. There are more reasons why she would gain latitude than lose at this point. This is profoundly important in terms of shear numbers because the population densities sparse out closer to the Louisiana state boarder. That is not intended to diminish the enormity for those who do reside in that area, and there certainly is a population there to be concern about. In terms of incurring losses to property and persons, however, less is always better!

b) Still an impressive entity in the Gulf, Rita's satellite presentation this morning simply does not quite have that same mystique in unmitigated horror she had overnight... I would never downplay a recon fix of 170mph and a central pressure of 907mbs (7am intermediate advisory), but a 10mb pressure rise is certainly significant nonetheless. The eye is still distinct, but as of 10:am, the massive and terrifyingly large CDO feature from the previous 12+ hours has shrunk and now supportive of smaller pulses of coldest red hues in IR, as opposed to that blood red meat grinder of a nightmare that belongs in the movie "War Of The Worlds". In fact, the CDO is still there in tact, but it is about half the diameter and differentiating smaller. It is hard to believe Rita will not be even weaker per the next official advisory due out in about 10 minutes... I suppose for the welfare of humanity it is better off she remain merely an intense hurricane rather than something that belongs on Jupiter.

There is also recent conjecture that earlier acquisition of polarward component means she will avail of warmer SSTs than expected... There is also a prediction that shear values will go from below normal to near normal or even slightly above after another 18 to 24 hours. It depends...If Rita is stronger, she can fight off the initial shear as it approaches because her circumvallate of subsidence will be confluent with any opposing wind field (deformation zone - i.e., she's created her own environment in which to fester!) We'lll see...


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Terra
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Re: The Cone... [Re: pryord1]
      #56340 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:10 AM

Fine.. you want proof of what I'm saying... since I'm telling it like it was... I can deliver that. Go to the graphics archive link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

Click on the 5-day watch/warnings graphic and advance forward to the 11am Monday, Sept. 19th image (or even the 5PM, and most of the 11PM). Back when the storm was very far away and was a tropical storm... a couple of days ago... Never did I say the storm was in the GOM at this time.... Geez, some people want to argue the most insignificant points.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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The Force 2005
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Re: The Cone... [Re: Terra]
      #56341 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:12 AM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270
KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. Rita IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT Rita IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.


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The Force 2005
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Re: The Cone... [Re: Terra]
      #56342 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:17 AM

Tera,

Again, I went to the Archive site for Rita, again N.O was never inside the cone, however, there was a Tropical Storm Watch posted, but never did it ever reside in the NHC cone or path.


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Cpt.Napalm
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Re: The Cone... [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56343 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:20 AM

Would the fact that there is so much dry air getting sucked in facilitate a turn to the east and towards more "fuel"? I think that they are being a little to conservative witht he cone of certainty with it shifting so much. They should be widening the cone to alert more people to the fact that they are under the gun with such a powerful storm.

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