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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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LisaMaria65
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 22
Loc: Lafayette, La
Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: heynow]
      #56344 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:21 AM

Quote:

LisaMarie:

What is your take? I think I am boarding up this afternoon and leaving tonight. I am just not sure where I am going to go. I have a place to stay in Dallas, but I don't want to deal with the traffic. Also, there is the possibity that Rita could dump tons of rain on Dallas . Definitely don't want to go east or west.




From the very beginning, this storm had me worried for our area. I've been watching it like a hawk from the beginning and it has done everything I expected it to do thus far.
On Monday, I booked 3 rooms at a Crowne Plaza in Dallas. With the "officials" reporting non-stop that it WILL hit the Texas Coast, I hesitated heading for Dallas. This morning, I went ahead and cancelled my reservations because it would take probably 24 hours + to get there due to all the Texans evacuating. I have 3 children that would get extremely cross if we are stuck in traffic for that long.

I will watch the storm through the night. If my feeling is correct, this storm will head straight for us or very close. If it does not get weaker, we will probably head out in the very early morning and drive towards Gattlinburg, TN. Everything I have told my In-Laws since this weekend has come to pass so they are packing up and heading up that way this afternoon.

You are a little closer to the gulf than I am. It would probably be a good idea if you boarded up and headed elsewhere, just to be safe!! They have just announced that we are now in Hurricane Warning...actually hurricane warning up to Morgan City, La.

--------------------
Lived through Betsy ('65), Camile ('69), Edith ('71), Carmen ('74), Danny ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05), Gustav ('08)....Who's next?


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: The Cone... [Re: Terra]
      #56345 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:25 AM

Quote:

Fine.. you want proof of what I'm saying... since I'm telling it like it was... I can deliver that. Go to the graphics archive link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

Click on the 5-day watch/warnings graphic and advance forward to the 11am Monday, Sept. 19th image (or even the 5PM, and most of the 11PM). Back when the storm was very far away and was a tropical storm... a couple of days ago... Never did I say the storm was in the GOM at this time.... Geez, some people want to argue the most insignificant points.




I didn't mean to discount your word- please don't think that. It's just that things have changed since your link and we need to keep open minds about it. Rita has a mind of its own and I believe it can basically do whatever it wants at this point. Your opinion is highly valued and very appreciated, so please don't think otherwise!

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


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Posts: 161
new plots by NHC *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56346 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:26 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Edited by John C (Thu Sep 22 2005 11:55 AM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
vortex message [Re: LisaMaria65]
      #56347 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:26 AM

Concentric eyewalls reported in the latest recon, confirming the ERC that is underway:

000
URNT12 KNHC 221500Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1449Z
B. 25 DEG 18 MIN N
88 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2326 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 121 DEG 135 KT
G. 35 DEG 13 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 18 C/ 3058 M
J. 22 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C017-55
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A Rita OB 05
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 1446Z


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heynow
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 17
Loc: Abbeville, LA
Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: LisaMaria65]
      #56349 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:30 AM

I too have been watching it like a hawk since Monday. For some reason, I just didn't like the NHC tracking and I never counted on the ridge holding up. I have been a learner (what others have called a lurker) on this site for over a year and some of the great posts over the last couple of days really made me pay attention (especially Rick in Mobile's posts).

I agree on your feeling that it will hit close to us. I also agree on heading towards Tennessee. I have a very good friend in Lexington, KY and I think my wife, 5-year old and I are going to head that way tonight.

You be safe too.

--------------------
I've lived through Danny ('85), Juan ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05) and Gustav ('08).


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jennye
Registered User


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Posts: 3
Re: new plots by NHC *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *DELETED* [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #56350 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:40 AM

Post deleted by jennye

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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: new plots by NHC *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: jennye]
      #56351 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:42 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged:
Posts: 161
ever play with a french curve in drafting? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56352 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:44 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: The Cone... [Re: Cpt.Napalm]
      #56353 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:46 AM

This does not bode well for New Orleans. They're in for a lot of rain from this. Rain they can't handle.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56354 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:48 AM

"about 5:00 tonight they will finally "tell" people that are in a city near a big lake in a state inbetween Mississippi and Texas that they are back in the realm of possibility." Rick, do mean Hot Springs...lol...everyone is getting to wound up...I love to hear everyones opinions but just remember most of us think of this as a hobby, and we don't make a living at it...I still feel the best barometer is the NHC..they have been awesome this year! Use that as your guide..things can change but they are the experts...as for everyone talking about N.O....just remeber that a storm 170 miles wesy can have a big impact...thats how far I am east of where Katrina came in and we had 5-6ft storm surge..

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: The Cone... [Re: SirCane]
      #56357 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:50 AM

Heard this morning, ACOE in NO said 6 inches of rain will cause another break/compromise of the levy system. Also, 9,000 now being airlifted out of Beaumont and surrounding areas due to traffic. 8 hours for a 1/2 hour drive

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 232
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: jennye]
      #56358 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:52 AM

Honestly, as of right now, there is no data to indicate that Rita is going to go anywhere east of the TX/LA border. IF it stalls over the GOM there is a SMALL chance it could go east. But it should be stressed that it is a VERY small chance.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 576
Re: The Cone... [Re: Cpt.Napalm]
      #56359 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:55 AM

Not likely... That phenomenon is more associated to tropical disturbances in their formative stages, where as, in the case of Rita, she's deep in the troposphere and deeply teleconnected with synoptic scale changes in her surrounding environment; i.e., these affects are for too profound for any mesoscale processes with convection to impose a significant alteration in track.

...it's very interesting to me how structurally different Rita is than this time yesterday... Almost seems she's not only weaker, but smaller diametrically - trying to verify if that is true at this point. Either way, she's definitely constricted and/or weakened her CDO at the core.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: ever play with a french curve in drafting? [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #56361 - Thu Sep 22 2005 11:57 AM

Just my 2 cents,But it does seem like it is heading close to N.O.Maybe that is a good thing.The town is already wiped out,and there are not that many people there now.Would it not be worse for another city to be wiped out?Not to sound mean but think about it.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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nate77
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 80
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Psyber]
      #56362 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:00 PM

Quote:

Honestly, as of right now, there is no data to indicate that Rita is going to go anywhere east of the TX/LA border. IF it stalls over the GOM there is a SMALL chance it could go east. But it should be stressed that it is a VERY small chance.




Agreed

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

The GOES out of the Gulf shows a North West Movement and that should put the eye in the Galveston Bay area.

I read in here early some said NO is in the path and was wondering what they were looking at?


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: nate77]
      #56363 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:01 PM

question is....how much will Rita deepen when she hits the warm Eddy Vortex?

plus it looks like fairly warm water the rest of the ride in....


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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: heynow]
      #56369 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:07 PM

Does anyone else find the mandatory evacuation in Corpus Christi a little bit unfortunate? A couple quick calculations on Google Earth show that it is over 200 miles to the southwest of the current forecast landfall point. This is roughly the same distance as Cape Caneveral to Miami. I'm all for erring on the side of caution, but at some point the stress on the roads and hotels becomes a problem for those in the danger area. Forcing people to evacuate from unaffected areas also reduces the chances that they will when there is a real threat. I guess the area must take a long time to evacuate and they had to go on yesterday's forecast track which appears now to have been way too far south. I saw the city manager for Corpus Christi on CNN saying that 3 weeks ago he would have waited another day before ordering the evactuation, but Katrina changed that. I suppose bottom line is that maybe Cat 5 storms should, and now after Katrina, do get special consideration in terms of evacuations and erring, even wildly, on the side of caution may be the best policy in order to save as many lives as possible.

Of course if you've been ordered to evacuate or even feel like it might be a good idea, please do so, especially if are in or near the right side of the cone.


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cmiller324
Registered User


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Posts: 6
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: nate77]
      #56370 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:07 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Honestly, as of right now, there is no data to indicate that Rita is going to go anywhere east of the TX/LA border. IF it stalls over the GOM there is a SMALL chance it could go east. But it should be stressed that it is a VERY small chance.




Agreed

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

The GOES out of the Gulf shows a North West Movement and that should put the eye in the Galveston Bay area.

I read in here early some said NO is in the path and was wondering what they were looking at?




Wouldn't this happen only if Rita was to track in a straight line? I'm a newb, love this site, but to this day I haven't seen a hurricane track in a straight line.
With the high over Texas moving to the west(that is what I'm seeing on WV) and the high over Florida. Doesn't that leave a funnel for Rita to slide into? Just an observation. It looks like the high over LA is being compressed and noving more to the north. I hope this is wrong.


On another note, we are getting the first rain bands here in Terrebonne Parish. Wind has picked up to bout 25mph with this band.



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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Posts: 429
Re: east of where it should be by 60 miles [Re: bobbutts]
      #56375 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:17 PM

Two days ago, the storm was tracking much closer to Corpus Christi. I think it was smart to evacuate, I'd rather be inconvenienced then dead.

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modeleste
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 10
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: cmiller324]
      #56376 - Thu Sep 22 2005 12:18 PM

Rick's prediction is just what I've been getting, as a rank amateur using a seat-of-the pants-method. I suspect he's doing something similar.

Look at the loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html with trop fcst pts turned on.

Over the last day, every time the eye has got to the next forecast point it has been significantly east. Then the track is shifted east to match. Then again the eye arrives east of the next point and the track is shifted again. If just repeat this simple procedure-- reproducing this trends of trend into the future you get the eastern eyewall unnervingly close to NO.

Of course this may be meaningless. But sometime such simple pattern exposes flaws in more complex models.

And I have no anti-NO bias. It is may favorite American city and Houston is one of my least.


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