ralphfl
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typhoon_tip
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which is predictively counter-intuitive because there is an apparent loss of steering field as this nears the coast, so that once on board, it is predicted to meander around NE TX for awhile... i mean, it's not like it's going to race to a point and stop on dime.
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The Force 2005
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I would tend to agree with it. If the is complete, which by the way the is looking on Infra-Red, it is looking more like it did last night. I would think by the next advisory, we have winds close to 165PMH or possible by the 8PM update again. Making it a CAT 5 one more time.
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CoalCracker
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What little respect I had for them is now gone. If they were posting on here, their views would be sent beyond the Hurricane Graveyard post haste. Irresponsible, sensationalistic, immature, (add your favorite negative adjective here). Oh, forgot disgusting.
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The Force 2005
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Well, if that was the case or will be the case, it was not noted in the update or adisory that was going to pick up forward speed.
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typhoon_tip
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Please read the former carefully message carefully.
At no time was state that was moving NNW!
It was merely stated that it is got to be troubling to storm weary denizens to see the jog, and jog is all that was stated! Perhap you should spend less time picking apart convesations that are merely for conjecture purposes.
But thanks for your astute - albeit unnecessary - clarification.
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Rabbit
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i see neither a nnw jog or deepening. The NNW movement on visible is nothing more than a trick of the light due to the stadium effect, people assume that the center is in the middle of the light. As for intensity, i do not see strengthening. 1mb increase in pressure is never said on here to be weakening, but a 1mb drop in pressure is somehow rapid deepening. Satellite appearance has actually changed very little in the last 12 hours, and if anything the outflow is beginning to be restricted just a bit on the south side; this combined with the NE flow of clouds to the north is an indication that wind shear may begin to take over in the next 36 hours. Also, the NW side of teh has eroded a bit, indicating that the outer circulation may be enrtraining dry air. IF it strengthens at all, i dont see it exceeding 160mph before dropping to a low Cat IV or a Cat III at landfall.
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The Force 2005
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You should have seen Joe "B" last night on the FNC. He was jumping up and down saying that Galveston/Houston was going to take the full brunt of with over 155+ winds at landfall and last for hours to cause billions of dollars in damage.
Edited by The Force 2005 (Thu Sep 22 2005 04:02 PM)
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ralphfl
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Quote:
Quote:
Louisianans have got to be about as beleaguered as can possibly be! Talk about over kill...
It is unsettling to see this NNW jog materializing in these very recent ir frames!
Absolutely.... I was just thinking the same thing.
there was never a NNW jog to begin with what im pointing out.Not even a jog that DIR maybe NW but not near NNW.
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JYarsh
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Rabbit
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the billions of dollars in damage part is probably the only Accuweather statement that will be proven correct
And with the movement, i agree that there is NO NNW movement at the moment. the eye wobbled a bit off of the forecast track and is now paralleling it
Edited by Rabbit (Thu Sep 22 2005 04:03 PM)
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rhendryx
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Agreed it was not noted in the Discussion, but its the only reasonable solution I can come up. As I said, I did not want to speak for Clark....just offering a mathmatically sound possible explanation. As I know you must be aware from your many visits here, it is highly unlikely that a hurricane would maintain a constant forward speed over an extended period of time.
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ralphfl
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modeleste
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Quote:
The NNW movement on visible is nothing more than a trick of the light due to the stadium effect, people assume that the center is in the middle of the light."
The steady arcing north of forecast track (it isn't a NNW movement) is there on IR too.
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Genesis
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Quote:
From the Accuweather link:
"AccuWeather feels that this forecast is virtually useless."
I'm sorry, but they are putting themselves out of business with that statement right there. They have already been under the gun for their practices and this will only serve to further light that fire. Accuweather's actions lately have exposed themselves.
No one in their right mind can say that Houston/Galveston has a 90% chance of hurricane-force winds. What about the people on the LA/TX border who are now directly in the path of the storm? Are they so confident in themselves on the path of that such areas have such a low chance of receiving such winds?
Quite frankly, it is my informed opinion that Accuweather's products and forecasts are useless. Bastardi may occasionally provide some useful insight, but that's about it.
</soapbox>
Here's the problem, as I see it.
Accuweather has consistently lobbied to get the federal government OUT of the weather business. Including MARINE weather. This is an issue that has been on the spotlight for boaters for the last two years, in that Santorum, who just happens to represent the state where AW is based, has introduced and is pushing HARD legislation that would make it ILLEGAL for the government to provide any weather service which a private company is also willing to provide.
The most notable impact that has been identified of this passing would be the NOAA marine forecasts, which are CRITICAL to boating interests.
But this could ALSO reach into the , and were it to do so, it would be CATASTROPHIC.
I do not agree with much of the 's reasoning at times, BUT to start this sort of thing that Accuweather has been promoting is exceedingly dangerous. If there is one proper function that government has, it is providing for the safety and protection of its citizens when whatever is under question affects all of them without regard to geographic or political boundaries.
Such is the case for the weather.
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Storm Hunter
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yeah i think the winds might go back up and we may have one last pressure fall.... notice on all sat shots the Northwestern eyewall is looking better than the last 12hrs or so... i am not sure it was a complete that took place... almost as if so dry air may have tried to get into her, but when i go back and look at some sats... it's hard to tell..... anyhow.... she looks much better than she did this morning in ALL quads... the looks equal all the way around the center and the tops of storms are cooler.
NASA TRMM Satellite - 85 GHz H-Pol
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 22 2005 04:13 PM)
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tpratch
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The ERWC is almost done, but the Eye is still open East (last vortex I saw). Once it is a closed eye again, you'll see the deepening. It's going to strengthen so long as it is over the eddy, and only once it leaves, will we see how disturbed the water temps are in her path.
She has this one shot (my opinion) to deepen further. Once she enters shallower waters, she'll start weakening. At present, there isn't enough shear or dry air to break her down. We'll have to wait for colder/shallower water to do that.
I also see a NW motion and not enough trend to call it more northward than that. She will turn more NNW, but I don't believe that time to be now.
YMMV SPSFD
Edited by tpratch (Thu Sep 22 2005 04:13 PM)
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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and I suppose deservedly so.
now, back to my observations...consistent with most everyone.
it will be interesting to see if starts a more nnw direction....in the next 6 hours we shall see. She is definitely going nw....no doubt about it. and the projected direction by the was more on a wnw..
not splitting hairs....but consider that a 15 degree change in direction is HUGE when you are 500 miles away.
and IF the percieved point that we are working with...(the 's plotted point)....then let's work with it. All I am doing is noticing a continuing trend east of the track. And even after the adjustment....Rita went east again..and this time even more than earlier today. I still believe a New Orleans hit is possible...and if I get put on probation....whatever.
my current thinking is will come within 75 miles of New Orleans...(west of the city)...and that is subject to change...as I've had to do since this morning..when I figured a Galveston/Houston hit...
I don't hang on to old ideas of where she will go...when the eye obviously is going elsewhere....ADJUST is what I do....
the will in about two more hours.
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Thunderbird12
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Dueling vortex messages from the AF and NOAA planes in the last hour... one has extrapolated pressure at 914, the other measured the pressure at 913 mb. FL winds of 133 knots from the NOAA fix, which still indicates concentric eyewalls (the AF recon report did not indicate concentric eyewalls).
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Well, ok...but, obviously this is subjective. I never said (factually) was moving NNW...
Perhaps if I had used the term "wobble" instead, which a 9mph forward speed it has to be doing so... The statement originally had nothing to do with prognostics and veracity...it was everything to do with "imagine that" - which, Terra seemed to understand that vibe.
In the meantime, for the record, I do think that is gaining more latitude than WNW, at times 'hinting' even more than that...
Other than that, I hang my hat on the folks at TPC, who have millions of dollars to technology at there disposal and PHD's with year and years of experience. Other than that, don't take too much of what anyone says on here any deeper than speculative. It's not worth it; it's for entertainment only.
peace
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