Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
Unfortunately, one can not make a snap shot of the atmosphere and assume that 10 minutes (even) from now those parameters will persist.
Not following you here, as I was talking about changes occuring over time, not about a snapshot. I don't know a lot of information about other factors in steering hurricanes, but if there are additional details, I'd be really interested in seeing a post about those. I think it's important to look at specifics rather than generalize. Without specifics, how could anyone know if a general statement like "models are biased to the left of the actual track" is valid or not. It could be a coincidence, if you're talking about only two storms.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
The pressure has been remarkably steady this afternoon. Also, the seems to be proceeding at a painfully slow pace:
000
URNT12 KNHC 222338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/23:28:50Z
B. 26 deg 01 min N
089 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2346 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 132 deg 125 kt
G. 047 deg 024 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 11 C/ 3052 m
J. 18 C/ 3050 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. CO16/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A 01 OB 16
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
OUTER EYEWALL SMALL OPENING W
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
Actually, in looking at the map, the potential threat line on the north of the old track is close to the new track. It shows devastation for alot more.
I agree; 's western side was so attenuated at landfall that a lot of those offshore points did not get hit hard. Now an area of high density will be right in the strong part of the storm if the track goes any further east.
Looking at the sat images the last hour or so, is it possible that some dry air has gotten further into the core? I'm seeing the "donut" shape break back down into the spiral banding features, which would indicate weakening. However is it possible that this is related to the that is still occuring? While the air to the east and south of the storm is certainly a lot drier than a couple days ago, as long as the storm was moving over warmer water it would seem strengthening would continue. Can someone post an updated image of the location of the eddy, perhaps she was going through a cooler area of water. Also could the slower speed be a factor.
for Thunderbird12: actually from what I've seen this year, they seem to take a really long time, on the order of 24-36 hours, to complete.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Sep 22 2005 11:53 PM)
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
I think what we are seeing right now on the IR imagery is evidence of the , with a fairly intense outer band of convection around the center and some bands associated with the inner eyewall still floating around.
|
funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 55
|
|
Quote:
Rita appears to have moved almost due west for the last hour and has also slowed down. This would be a rather lengthy "wobble"... the may be inducing some temporary erratic motion, or it may be starting to feel more the high to the NW that will want to steer it more westward for awhile. Until the trend persists, it is probably safer to assume the is the main culprit here.
i'm seeing that as well. galveston people, take a deep breath....
...i feel like we're watching that game from "the price is right" where the person drops the hockey puck and down it goes, which way will it bounce, nobody knows...
point is, if you are anywhere near it, well....you know. 
--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
|
syfr
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 19
Loc: Central NC
|
|
Quote:
To say, "some weakening is expected" when is passing over what looks like a pretty significant potentially hurricane strengthening eddy is somewhat irresponsible in my opinion.
To be fair, when it was stated , was Cat V, now it's Cat IV, right?
I agree that either one means "leave now" if you're in the path, but the statement was correct.
|
Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
|
REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 89.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.
hrm, it's maintaining the speed/pressure even though its unstable...
--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
|
funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 55
|
|
Quote:
Looking at the sat images the last hour or so, is it possible that some dry air has gotten further into the core? I'm seeing the "donut" shape break back down into the spiral banding features, which would indicate weakening.
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellit...ig&itype=wv
water vapor looks pretty symmetrical. let's watch that dry air on the western side. i think it will eventually creep in, but not until late tomorrow.
--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 89.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.
hrm, it's maintaining the speed/pressure even though its unstable...
Uh... what exactly is unstable? The looks almost as symmetrical as it did 24 hours ago, although the cloud tops are not as high. It still looks like a cat 4 storm on IR. I'm a bit surprised the pressue isn't back below 910, in fact.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
hawg92
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
|
|
Quote:
I have read reports today that even 6 inches of rain could severely stress the repairs to the levees. Having lived through the tropical storm area of 5 hurricanes, 6 inches of rain is a joke, especially if it is already raining there now.
According to the local news media in Baton Rouge, the report is that the levees can withstand a 10 ft. storm surge in New Orleans, but only 5 ft in Plaquemines Parish. Obviously, the further east this storm tracks, the more likely those numbers will be exceeded.
--------------------
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle
|
Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
|
I'd say its a bit unstable because the has been going on for so long. The 5pm discussion explains it somewhat though:
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005
RITA IS GOING TROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE AND DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 125 KNOTS...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 913
MB...WHICH IS A VERY LOW PRESSURE TO HAVE ONLY 125 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...RITA IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE EDGE OF A COLD SST EDDY. THIS COULD HAVE ENHANCED
THE WEAKENING TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER ANOTHER
WARM EDDY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE
THAT COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE STRENGTHENING
THAT MAY BE CAUSED BY THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE
BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH
A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A
CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.
--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
|
richisurfs
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
|
|
I feel that was a well thought out answer to a problem someone had with the . I live in an area where we got hit by two hurricanes last year. While I really respect the opinions of Clarke, HankFrank, Jason, and Ed, I will always make life threatening decsions based on what the local authorties and the says. There is just too much at stake for them to be playing politics. Except for the opinions of the guys I listed above and a couple of others I will never make a decision based on what I read on this board as much as I love it.
|
lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
|
|
at 26N and 90W, she's almost over the warm Eddy Vortex
linky
|
funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 55
|
|
Quote:
at 26N and 90W, she's almost over the warm Eddy Vortex
linky
it will be interesting to see if the SW portion of picks up that warm eddy water and blows up that side of her.
here is another map of the current SSTs: http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm
--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
That image looks so different from the one I link to from the TPC site. It looks much more symmetric, although you can see a very thin line of some slightly drier air outlining a spiral band that goes pretty far into the central circulation. OK then I think she'll get back up to a Cat 5 by late tonight / early morning, even though I haven't figured out exactly when she passes over that warmer eddy, and that small break in the outer eyewall. Temp diff has still remained decent and pressure has remained remarkably low, considering. I think for once I'll get to bed early and then up early to check the appearance after the satellite images come back online.
To lurkerhunter:
Thank you so much!
However that track on the image is old. She is at 26N and 89.9W...about to go right over the center of it.
OK this confirms in my mind, we see an increase in intensity tonight, even with dry air and shear.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Sep 23 2005 12:29 AM)
|
Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
|
Someone get down there with some spotlights so the sats can still pick up the images we need! 
I agree that it has a chance to rebuild into a Cat 5. You would have thought the pressure would have ballooned today with going over so much cooler water while in an .
--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
at 26N and 90W, she's almost over the warm Eddy Vortex
linky
it will be interesting to see if the SW portion of picks up that warm eddy water and blows up that side of her.
here is another map of the current SSTs: http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm
It looks like she's already starting to respond to the eddy. Look at the convection spreading and increasing to the north and east and wraping around the south. The west is still intensifying as it's still over the loop current.
If she completes the while over the eddy, she might be able to regain her strength from last night.
--RC
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
It looks like she's already starting to respond to the eddy. Look at the convection spreading and increasing to the north and east and wraping around the south. The west is still intensifying as it's still over the loop current.
If she completes the while over the eddy, she might be able to regain her strength from last night.
I'm surprised she hasn't regained cat 5 intensity already, honestly. The last several hours on IR have been VERY impressive.
Max Mayfield on CNN just said he expects it to strengthen overnight.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Texascoast
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 7
|
|
Do you think that Wobble to the left had to do with hitting the edge of that eddy? Just some food for thought. What do you think of that?
Edited by Texascoast (Fri Sep 23 2005 12:47 AM)
|
Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
|
|
Max Mayfield is speaking on her meeting up w/ ythat Eddy right now and believes it will hook up and possibly increase after an additional slight decrease. Amazing watching this around 1-2pm today she was really fighting off the shear and now seems to have reestablished herself quite well
--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
