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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Beryl) , Major: 329 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 329 (Idalia) Major: 329 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Thunderbird12
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Re: 18z GFS and NAM.... [Re: Random Chaos]
      #57046 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:07 PM

I assume that report was for an elliptical eyewall, which is 20 miles wide on the minor axis and 30 miles wide on the major axis. That might account for some erratic motion.

Latest pressure falls as of 7 CDT: Lake Charles 2.8 mb, Beaumont 2.1 mb, Galveston 0.9 mb.

Rita looks pretty ill on the last IR image at 2345Z. The eyewall seems to be making a slight comback on radar, though.


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Alwasys In The Wrong Place At The Right Time
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Re: 18z GFS and NAM.... *DELETED* [Re: tpratch]
      #57053 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:24 PM

Post deleted by Storm Cooper

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nate77
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Re: 18z GFS and NAM.... [Re: Alwasys In The Wrong Place At The Right Time]
      #57054 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:27 PM

I dont know where you are getting strengthning at?

Pressure is up on every advsiory, Eye Wall has been ragged, if anything its weakening.


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: MikeC]
      #57055 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:30 PM

Lake Charles, LA
Houston, TX
Lake Charles NEXRAD
Houston NEXRAD


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nate77
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Re: 18z GFS and NAM.... [Re: nate77]
      #57056 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:31 PM

Just to note: CNN staellite showed almost a complete eyewall callapsed on there colored satellite image.

Anyone else see that?


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oil trader
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Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location [Re: danielw]
      #57057 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:31 PM

Quote:


Rita should cross the shoreline near Star Lake and Clam Lake,TX.
This point is roughly half way between Sabine Pass,TX and High Island,Tx on Highway 87.
If this hypothetical track were to continue.
Rita would pass East of Winnie,TX and cross Interstate 10 East of Exit 833.
This is in the Hamshire, TX area and about 15 miles West of Beaumont, TX.






Do you have please a good map link to see that point?


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #57059 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:33 PM

LC NEXRAD just showed a cell with winds of 118kts.

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nate77
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Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location [Re: oil trader]
      #57060 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:36 PM

Quote:

Quote:


Rita should cross the shoreline near Star Lake and Clam Lake,TX.
This point is roughly half way between Sabine Pass,TX and High Island,Tx on Highway 87.
If this hypothetical track were to continue.
Rita would pass East of Winnie,TX and cross Interstate 10 East of Exit 833.
This is in the Hamshire, TX area and about 15 miles West of Beaumont, TX.






Do you have please a good map link to see that point?





Try this, may need to adjust

http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=29.384568,-94.347839&spn=1.273175,2.593597&hl=en


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UKCloudgazer
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Re: 18z GFS and NAM.... [Re: nate77]
      #57061 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:39 PM

just came back - looking at 4 dif sats - is it me or has the eye disappeared? if so, how will that affect things?

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jmk818
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Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location [Re: nate77]
      #57062 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:42 PM

Long time reader, first time poster. If she stayed strong enough, and the land was flat 20 miles inland, would the water pulled ashore be enough to turn off weakening for that 20 miles?

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location [Re: oil trader]
      #57063 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:46 PM

Quote:

Do you have please a good map link to see that point?




I am using software here at work. The point I used was 29.7N/ 94.1W over the beach.


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tpratch
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BALETED [Re: jmk818]
      #57064 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:46 PM

*SNIP* (with apologies)

Edited by tpratch (Fri Sep 23 2005 09:03 PM)


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location [Re: jmk818]
      #57065 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:51 PM

hourly updates from the region.
Lakes Charles gusting to 54mph
link

tides already 3-4ft+ above normal
link


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n1unicorn
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Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: MikeC]
      #57066 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:56 PM

I might as well add my 2 cents worth. I haven't read too many comments yet, but am I the only one that saw Rita coming in near the La/Tx border over 36 hrs go? I knew the high was not going to move as rapidly as predicted. Were they just wishful thinking?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Administrative Reminders [Re: danielw]
      #57067 - Fri Sep 23 2005 08:59 PM

It is at times like these as a system approaches the coast that the site can get quite busy. There are ways that you can help to prevent bandwidth overload and administrative actions - simply follow the site rules.

There have been way too many one-line posts and this creates a bandwidth problem. CFHC is a Forum-oriented site; it is not a chat room. One line posts seldom offer any useful information, so please make an effort to limit them. A radar cell top at 17K is not useful info - most hurricanes have cell tops at or above 50kft. Two or three frames of storm movement mean nothing - hurricanes wobble along their track. Hurricanes go through eyewall replacement cycles, so one eyewall weakens and a new one forms - perfectly normal.

Put your post in the proper Forum. If you do not, we will move it if we have time, or delete it if we do not have time. If you ask a question about the storm, there is a Forum for that. If you have a storm report, there is a Forum for that. Please use them.

Personal attacks are simply not tolerated, and since the site is getting busy and emotions are getting out of hand, I'm implementing a 'zero tolerance' approach. If you attack someone else, even just once, you'll be placed on probation for 24 hours. You can certainly question the rationale behind someone else's post, but you cannot belittle or otherwise attack the poster.

If you have a question or comment for a particular individual, please use the PM capability rather than a post.

Thanks for your help.
ED


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Allison
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Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location [Re: jmk818]
      #57068 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:00 PM

Your question is probably best answered by one of our resident mets...

with that said, my understanding is that, when a hurricane passes over land, elevation is certainly a factor (such as an island with high mountains), but it's really the lack of warm water feeding the system that is the more significant cause of weakening.

--------------------
Allison


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Jonathan Franklin
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Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location... - gueswork [Re: Allison]
      #57069 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:04 PM

Anyone getting any lead on the storm skirting westward? Reports we are getting are suggesting that the storm is being pushed West at the last moment. One weather guy has it going west of port arthur. Any expert out there picking up something along these lines? Looks bad for Port Arthur.

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LisaMaria65
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Loc: Lafayette, La
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: n1unicorn]
      #57070 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:04 PM

Quote:

I might as well add my 2 cents worth. I haven't read too many comments yet, but am I the only one that saw Rita coming in near the La/Tx border over 36 hrs go? I knew the high was not going to move as rapidly as predicted. Were they just wishful thinking?




From the very beginning, I called it coming in around Cameron, La.

Right now, i'm getting at least 60 mph sustaned winds with gusts probably upwards of about 80.
The house across the street from me has stuff blowing off it...looks like pieces of wood or siding.

The weather here will go downhill in about 3 hours or so. I'm actually quite surprised that we still have power here at my house. It probably won't be much longer!

--------------------
Lived through Betsy ('65), Camile ('69), Edith ('71), Carmen ('74), Danny ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05), Gustav ('08)....Who's next?


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: LisaMaria65]
      #57071 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:11 PM

And you're sitting there instead of someplace like Dallas, why?

from the last GOES floater loop, it looks like the eye has almost completely disappeared...is this because it's starting to get starved for energy or something else?

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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tashina
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Max Mayfield [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #57072 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:12 PM

Max Mayfield was just on Larry King....says this hurricane is most akin to Audrey in 1957 - seemed to be mostly talking about the storm surge.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#audrey


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