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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location [Re: jmk818]
      #57073 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:12 PM

Quote:

Long time reader, first time poster. If she stayed strong enough, and the land was flat 20 miles inland, would the water pulled ashore be enough to turn off weakening for that 20 miles?




Based on some computer generated Storm Surge Maps. I don't think it will make any difference in the Storm Surge.

In theory the water pulled ahore should be warm water and that normally sustains Hurricanes.
I'll try to pull up the last SHIPS model and check.

If You live in SE TX and SW LA. Specifically Cameron Parish,LA- Jefferson County,TX; and Orange County, TX. Near a river, bayou or low lying area that collect or ponds water.
If you can safely get out at this time...Please Do So NOW.

See the following River Flood Warning from LCH NWS Office.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LCH/FLWLCH

...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STORM SURGE ON THE
CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR LAKE CHARLES, ON THE NECHES RIVER NEAR
BEAUMONT AND ON THE SABINE RIVER NEAR ORANGE...


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: LisaMaria65]
      #57074 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:14 PM

Rita continues to maintain a strong northern eyewall, but is unable to close it. Must be something to do with the inner core dynamics, since you can almost see convective elements on radar disappearing in the southern half of the storm and re-emerging in the northern half.

Pressure falls the last hour: Lake Charles 2.1 mb (down to 991.4 mb), Beaumont 2.0 mb (down to 992.5 mb), Galveston 1.5 mb (down to 995.4 mb).

Some of the 18Z models suggested a more westward turn, which is probably why some of the media have picked up on that. There have been some wobbles, but no signicant deviation from the track evdient on radar so far.

Regarding the hypothetical landfall scenario, that is an interesting question, but it is highly unlikely that any storm surge which was brought inland would help to temporarily keep the storm from weakening after landfall. There would likely still be too much surrounding terrain that is not inundated.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Sep 23 2005 09:22 PM)


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robynsmom
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Re: 18z GFS and NAM.... [Re: nate77]
      #57075 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:15 PM

Quote:

Just to note: CNN staellite showed almost a complete eyewall callapsed on there colored satellite image.

Anyone else see that?




What does that indicate? Is that good or bad?

--------------------
Robynsmom


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Allison
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Re: 18z GFS and NAM.... [Re: UKCloudgazer]
      #57076 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:23 PM

I'm seeing it to... my suspicions are either 1) the predicted shear from the SW, 2) a bit of dry air intrusion, 3) interaction with land, 4) SST issues (slightly cooler, shallow water, upwelling, etc.), but more likely a combo of all these elements...

--------------------
Allison


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jlauderdal
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Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location... - gueswork [Re: Jonathan Franklin]
      #57077 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:25 PM

Joe Bastardi on fox about 10 minutes ago mentioned that as a possibility but hey it is always a possibilty with a wobble.

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teal61
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Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57078 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:26 PM

Quote:

Rita continues to maintain a strong northern eyewall, but is unable to close it. Must be something to do with the inner core dynamics, since you can almost see convective elements on radar disappearing in the southern half of the storm and re-emerging in the northern half.

Pressure falls the last hour: Lake Charles 2.1 mb (down to 991.4 mb), Beaumont 2.0 mb (down to 992.5 mb), Galveston 1.5 mb (down to 995.4 mb).

Some of the 18Z models suggested a more westward turn, which is probably why some of the media have picked up on that. There have been some wobbles, but no signicant deviation from the track evdient on radar so far.

Regarding the hypothetical landfall scenario, that is an interesting question, but it is highly unlikely that any storm surge which was brought inland would help to temporarily keep the storm from weakening after landfall. There would likely still be too much surrounding terrain that is not inundated.




Even the 23z RUC had a slow movement to the west begining soon. I don't know a lot about that model but thats at least three that I've seen that seem to slow it and turn to the west.

A couple of other observations: The 0045z ir show a ring of very cold cloud tops almost completely around the center, and the latest radar loop from Houston seems to show the center elongated SE-NW.

Edited by teal61 (Fri Sep 23 2005 09:30 PM)


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ralphfl
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Re: 18z GFS and NAM.... [Re: robynsmom]
      #57079 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:33 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Just to note: CNN staellite showed almost a complete eyewall callapsed on there colored satellite image.

Anyone else see that?




What does that indicate? Is that good or bad?





Well im glad to see she is still losing power and hopefully a cat 2 at landfall.The Radar at this moment is showing a NW movement yet and as stated a wobble either way at landfall is Poss.

I think the 11pm will tell us more and hopefully she drops more winds.


Last loop of a hr on radar still show NW shall see what she does either way at landfall.She could jog either way there is no guarantee about anything other then she will hit land somewhere.

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 23 2005 09:36 PM)


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patrickbyers
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Re: 18z GFS and NAM.... [Re: robynsmom]
      #57080 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:33 PM

It appeared to be an eyewall colapse and a quick forward movement of the low pressure circulation that moved quickly towards the coast line.

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jlauderdal
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Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: teal61]
      #57081 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:36 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Rita continues to maintain a strong northern eyewall, but is unable to close it. Must be something to do with the inner core dynamics, since you can almost see convective elements on radar disappearing in the southern half of the storm and re-emerging in the northern half.

Pressure falls the last hour: Lake Charles 2.1 mb (down to 991.4 mb), Beaumont 2.0 mb (down to 992.5 mb), Galveston 1.5 mb (down to 995.4 mb).

Some of the 18Z models suggested a more westward turn, which is probably why some of the media have picked up on that. There have been some wobbles, but no signicant deviation from the track evdient on radar so far.

Regarding the hypothetical landfall scenario, that is an interesting question, but it is highly unlikely that any storm surge which was brought inland would help to temporarily keep the storm from weakening after landfall. There would likely still be too much surrounding terrain that is not inundated.




Even the 23z RUC had a slow movement to the west begining soon. I don't know a lot about that model but thats at least three that I've seen that seem to slow it and turn to the west.

A couple of other observations: The 0045z ir show a ring of very cold cloud tops almost completely around the center, and the latest radar loop from Houston seems to show the center elongated SE-NW.




Yeah, I just looped the RUC and this is what Bastardi was talking about. We shall see if it verifies.


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danielwAdministrator
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Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT [Re: patrickbyers]
      #57082 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:41 PM

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
830 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 (edited~danielw)

..STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ORANGE TEXAS AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA. THIS STORM SURGE WILL ALSO LIKELY COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE WILL BE INLAND...HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER.

IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY.

...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EXTREME WINDS. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LCH/HLSLCH


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patrickbyers
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Re: 18z GFS and NAM.... [Re: Allison]
      #57085 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:53 PM

You are absolutely right. This is a regular occurance of gulf coast hurricanes. They tend to sitr up the water. As they approach the coast line the waters tend to become cooler. Also there was dry air coming from the south west of the circulation. I have seen this before. The dry air from the south west causes the eye wall to weken and possibly elongate.

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danielwAdministrator
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Water Temps and Wind Speeds-LCH NWS [Re: danielw]
      #57086 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:53 PM

OTHER MARINE REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA 840 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2005
MARINE OBSERVATIONS AT 8 PM,
AT HEBERT'S MARINA ON BIG LAKE, THE AIR TEMPERATURE WAS 78 DEGREES, WITH NORTH WIND AT 44 KNOTS.

AT CALCASIEU PASS AT CAMERON JETTY, THE TIDE LEVEL IS 4.66 FEET WHICH IS 2.74 FEET ABOVE TIDE TABLE LEVELS. THE WIND IS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 54 KNOTS. THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS 76 DEGREES.
THE WATER TEMPERATURE IS 84 DEGREES.

AT SABINE PASS COAST GUARD STATION, THE TIDE LEVEL IS 2.65 FEET WHICH IS 1.24 FEET ABOVE TIDE TABLE LEVELS, THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS MISSING AND THE WATER TEMPERATURE IS MISSING.


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Frank P
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Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT [Re: danielw]
      #57087 - Fri Sep 23 2005 09:56 PM

I think the fixation with the winds of this hurricane by some posters, especially a former Cat 5 hurricane that has weakened, is amiss and missing the really big picture of the tremendous event that is going to transpire as this system goes inland... regardless of what her winds are at land fall, this storm is going to do tremendous damage from her surge... Ivan taught us that lesson last year as its surge devastated the Panhandle and Katrina validated that lesson again this year destroying the entire MS gulf coast... I expect we'll will get a very similar level of surge destruction along the LA/TX coasts for miles, especially to the areas east of the center .... my heart go out to all the good people of Texas and Louisiana that will be dealing with this storm...

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danielwAdministrator
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NWS Update-Galveston,TX Office [Re: Frank P]
      #57088 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:07 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
901 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

UPDATE ALL EYES STILL ON Rita AS SHE MAKES HER WAY TO THE COAST.
IT APPEARS THAT THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER OR PERHAPS 10 TO 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE RIVER LOOKS TO BE THE LANDFALL POINT.


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT [Re: danielw]
      #57089 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:16 PM

anyone have links to near real time winds speed reports close to the coastline?
The highest ones I'm seeing are Lake Charles Airport.


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danielwAdministrator
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Rita Postion Update [Re: tashina]
      #57090 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:21 PM

HURRICANE Rita TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

AT 9 PM CDT...0200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE Rita WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA.

FORECASTER KNABB


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Thunderbird12
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Re: NWS Update-Galveston,TX Office [Re: danielw]
      #57091 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:24 PM

Pressure falls last hour: Beaumont 2.4 mb (to 990.1 mb), Lake Charles 1.6 mb (989.8 mb). No report from Galveston available yet. Lake Charles reported 51 mph sustained winds with 71 mph gusts about an hour ago.

Nothing seems to have changed much intensity-wise in the last hour. The satellite presentation has been erratic... it looks better now than it did for awhile, with some very cold convection on the north side of the eye. The eyewall is still open to the south within a larger clear area in that area of the storm. The center continues to wobble northwestward and conditions are going to get progressively worse along the coast from here on out.


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Lsr1166
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Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #57092 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:26 PM

I was just flipping from the weather channel to fox, and fox is saying that the outer edge of the eye wall will be making land fall in about 2 hours, but the weather channel is saying it will be about 6-7 hours. How can they be seeing such different things?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT [Re: Lsr1166]
      #57093 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:31 PM

The outer edge of the eyewall is indeed getting close to the coast, however, the center of the eye itself will take about 6 or 7 hours to reach the coast. I've placed a short update on the Main Page for those that may be interested.
ED


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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT [Re: danielw]
      #57094 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:31 PM

Radar is clearly showing a very open eye, but IR is showing deep convection fully wraping the core now, with some very cold cloudtops embedded. This thing's trying to reestablish it's core, but I think it's out of time. Too near the coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

--RC

Note: thread's not updating it's page numbers correctly anymore - mods might need to start a new one

Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Sep 23 2005 10:33 PM)


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