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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: direction? [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56932 - Fri Sep 23 2005 12:52 PM

there is a less than 5 degree incline from due NW on the radar. Get me a higher-resolution radar, and I'll have a more accurate number.

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Sportsfreak1989s
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Lafayette, Louisiana
Re: direction? [Re: tpratch]
      #56933 - Fri Sep 23 2005 12:52 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Well I live in Lafayette and we are starting to get really bad rain bands. I do live in a low lying area to, but we are going to go to my COusins house in a couple hours but I just wanted to show ya'll the north-ward "Jog." I am staring to get pretty worried b/c I am only about 10 miles away from the coastline. Can someone tell me if this is a jog or say it last for about 3-4 more frames would it still be considered a jog??

Thanks....Andy

God Bless who ever this monster hits.

--------------------
Impossible Is Nothing


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rmcinorlando
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Re: direction? [Re: ralphfl]
      #56934 - Fri Sep 23 2005 12:53 PM

Rick on boat - re: your PM to ralphfl - thanks for giving me a reason to laugh in the midst of all the chaos.

Glad to hear that people in/around Houston are getting out. I am saying a prayer for the poor people who died in this morning's bus fire. A terrible tragedy before the potential of an even bigger tragedy.........


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: direction? [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56936 - Fri Sep 23 2005 12:55 PM

The Fork Polk radar is unavailable... I guess we have to go back to New Orleans long range. Last frame of the IR was odd looking, in terms of
direction and eye configuration.

Edit-Phew... it's back up now... maybe t'was down from overuse...

P.S. It's very inappropriate to post private messages in a public forum.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill

Edited by Terra (Fri Sep 23 2005 01:04 PM)


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: direction? *DELETED* [Re: ralphfl]
      #56941 - Fri Sep 23 2005 12:59 PM

Post deleted by Skeetobite

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bucagator
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Loc: Central Florida
Re: direction? [Re: rmcinorlando]
      #56942 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:00 PM

I found this site last year after Charley took a "wobble" towards Charlotte Harbor and by the grace of God I was fortunate enough to think "what if that is more than a wobble?" Six hours and 100 miles inland later my town was destoyed and half of my roof was gone. Had I not guessed that the wobble was a turn and made rapid preperations it would have been much worse at my house. NO ONE OFFICIALLY called it a turn for at least a couple of hours, including Paul Delagado.



Edited by SkeetoBite (Fri Sep 23 2005 01:34 PM)


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: direction? [Re: Terra]
      #56943 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:01 PM

Not trying to change the subject, but does anyone have any inof/link to 98L? Thanks!

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: direction? [Re: Terra]
      #56945 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:02 PM

Not trying to change the subject, but does anyone have any info/link to 98L? Thanks!

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!

Edited by pryord1 (Fri Sep 23 2005 01:07 PM)


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: direction? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #56946 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:02 PM

Ok folks. Talk about hurricanes or leave. Any more foolishness and those involved will be banned for the duration of this storm, possibly the season.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: direction? [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #56947 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:05 PM

Once again I check my own site out during lunch and find it going crazy. Some of our mods are directly involved with Rita perperation so we've had a slow period during the day. I'll fix this instead of updating. I'll be back around 6PM.

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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: direction? [Re: Terra]
      #56948 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:05 PM

Try this radar - lost the eye in the other one posted. (or the other radar went ka-blooey)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klch.shtml

and I'll keep my mouth shut about all the other goings on in these posts the last couple of days.



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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: direction? [Re: pryord1]
      #56950 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:06 PM

I know Rita is the talk of the town now, but when did Phillipe change direction to a WNW at 18MPH. Stand-by East Coast.



Edited by SkeetoBite (Fri Sep 23 2005 01:41 PM)


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: direction? [Re: MikeC]
      #56957 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:15 PM

Mike,

Thanks for the update on Philippe... let's stay focus on the weather.

Edited by Skeetobite (09/23/05 01:10 PM)

I thought this was a tropical storm, isn't that weather, and concern.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: direction? [Re: Terra]
      #56959 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:17 PM

you can use the link posted on the main page to the Lake charles radar...that is doing fine

--------------------
doug


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
Re: direction? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56961 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:19 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Niel Frank just said that they have not seen the northerly turn that they were expecting. It is still on a NW track.




Which is quite evident by http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml




Yup... Neil Frank was just on again, and essentially he says he is "not optimistic" that it will be taking a turn northward... he says if you look at the 3-hour plots, it's still on a general NW heading (toward Galveston). He also said that the steering currents that would pull her north are "weak", and that, because she is still a powerful hurricane, she'll pretty much do her own thing....


In case anyone missed it from the front page and other posts, here are links to local Houston tv stations, most of which offer live streaming coverage:

www.khou.com (registration may be required, but it's worth it)
www.kprc.com (a little to sensationalist, IMHO)
www.ktrk.com (not bad)

Also radio:

www.ktrh.com (this was one of the best sources for news when Claudette came on shore a few years ago)

--------------------
Allison


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NorEaster
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 6
RITA running into a brick wall of dry air [Re: MikeC]
      #56964 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:23 PM

Well actually, more like an intrusion of dry air that got sucked in from the land (always a problem when these huge (diameter wise) storms get anywhere near land. Its like a vacuum that sucks in a chord and wraps around the spindle brushes choking the mechanism.

For you football fans...I'd compare this to Terrell Owens running head first into Warren Sapp. BAM!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg

It looks as though Rita is emerging off of the Loop Current Eddies and into cooler water(but still more than warm enough to sustain CAT 3-4 Status) as demonstrated by the following image....

http://ccar.colorado.edu/~leben/rita_wind.jpg


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: direction? [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56973 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:31 PM

Quote:

I know Rita is the talk of the town now, but when did Phillipe change direction to a WNW at 18MPH. Stand-by East Coast.

Thanks for the update on Philippe... let's stay focus on the weather.




I was warned to stay on Rita last night when I enlightened folks as to the other features in the tropics that were of interest... So, at great risk (apologizies to the mod) I will just say this one thing... The subtropical low was a fairly unexpected event that has emerged in the past 2 days... Actually, the U/A counterpart the has assisted in boring a circulation down to the surface is more than partially to blame for Philippe's decay and encountering of hostile environments, as it began imparting shear fairly early in the game. As it were, the models had done a lousy job (now coming around to it however) in the evolution of the subtropical low and therefore is likely why they did not see the inevitable interaction with Philippe.

As a synoptic trained Meteorologist I can say that any threat to the East Coast is extremely minimal at this time. There are large scale changes occuring that will prevent westward movement of any tropically transition system in that area... Namely, teleconnections are beginning to slowly come around to the idea of troughing near 70w, which would immediately cause SW steering components, effectively protecting the E Coast.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: developing system [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56979 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:42 PM

The globals feel this situation and develop a low there Most trap it however, and it lingers...but none show any movement to the coast. CONUS involvement after Rita may have to originate in the SW Carribean.

On Rita: the last two hours of sat loops and radar show a serious jog north...overall slightly west of north. One more hour of that and something on the heading will have to change in my opinion.

--------------------
doug


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
News from Houston [Re: NorEaster]
      #56982 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:48 PM

Here's a quick rundown of some news from Houston:

-- Both major airports (Intercontinental and Hobby) are now closed.

-- The freeways are pretty much back up to speed, but many motorists are out of gas and stranded on the side of the road. Officials are sending helicopters up to locate stranded motorists, and sending tanker trucks.

-- Officials are recommending to people who may be stuck on the road to just go to the nearest shelter instead of trying to continue to leave town.

-- METRO bus service on standby to evacuate people, take them to shelters, move around rescue workers, etc.

-- Gas stations along the freeways are slowly being refilled.

-- Galveston should expect hurricane force winds just after dark, and continuing for about 12 hours.

-- About 5,000 people stayed on Galveston Island... one lady interviewed said she stayed because she was worried about looting... There is a "shelter of last resort" that is going to stay open on Galveston.


On a personal note, my elderly grandparents made it out of Beaumont -- they were on the road for 14 hours yesterday and only made it as far as Lufkin (normally a 2 hour drive). My aunt drove down from Dallas, picked them up, and took them back to Dallas with her.

--------------------
Allison


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Cash
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 11
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: developing system [Re: doug]
      #56983 - Fri Sep 23 2005 01:52 PM

Doug:

You just posted, "On Rita: the last two hours of sat loops and radar show a serious jog north...overall slightly west of north."

This is the kind of thing that gets a lot of people aggravated here. All you'd have to do is put the edge of a piece of paper against your monitor screen to realize that that statement above is just false. And the reason why it gets people aggravated is that this stuff matters a lot. The storm is going exactly where the NHC has it forecast to go - on a line straight toward the LA/TX border.

Everyone needs to stop imagining curves that aren't there and stop extrapolating short-term jogs into greater trends. Most of us have seen enough hurricanes to know better.

Michael Cash
(of the newly reflooded town of New Orleans)


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