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Center of #90L now pushing inland east of Gulf Shores very much like a T.D. Bands of rain, t-storms, winds and isolated spouts.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 251 (Nicholas) , Major: 266 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1320 (Michael) Major: 1320 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 209
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: News from Houston [Re: Allison]
      #56984 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:02 PM

Quote:

-- About 5,000 people stayed on Galveston Island... one lady interviewed said she stayed because she was worried about looting... There is a "shelter of last resort" that is going to stay open on Galveston.


On a personal note, my elderly grandparents made it out of Beaumont -- they were on the road for 14 hours yesterday and only made it as far as Lufkin (normally a 2 hour drive). My aunt drove down from Dallas, picked them up, and took them back to Dallas with her.




Worried about what? Not getting in on the local Walmart "free for all" after the hurricane's gone? Honestly, what makes people think that a> their personal property is worth their lives b> they could stop determined and probably armed looters when/if the situation arises. There will be VERY few police that weren't smart enough to get the hell out of dodge too!

Glad to hear about your grand parents. There's another dude on here that signed off a couple days ago from Beaumont...I know it's a little early but by the looks of things, I'm sorry about their property loss. Looks like they're going to take a pretty sizable hit. (and possibly a N-E quandrant hit if this thing gets going a bit more west again.)


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: developing system [Re: Cash]
      #56985 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:05 PM

Its down to a Cat 3 now.. 125 MPH Winds

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: developing system [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #56986 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:13 PM


Red line shows the path from the center on the first two frames. White lines are headings of 270, 315, and 360

Quick loop I made... Motion has been NW (and currently a jog W of NW).


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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
Re: developing system [Re: Cash]
      #56987 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:18 PM

With all the discussions of W, WNW, NW, NNW, or N and trying to figure out for myself which way it is going, I decided to use FSU's GIS enabled radar to find the distances and bearing from a singular point (per each radar update) to three select cities. This is not exact science but based solely on these numbers (which in all reality mean absolutely nothing), anyone can see that the hurricane regularly makes jogs (demonstrated in the table by the change in distance over time from a given point).

What does this all mean? Nothing spectacular.


DISTANCE/BEARING FROM POINT ON Rita
ZULU TIME LAFAYETTE BEAUMONT GALVESTON
1627 170/0 198/322 193/300
1648 164/1 194/322 188/299
1715 164/1 191/321 188/299
1726 159/3 183/322 180/298
1737 156/3 183/322 179/298
1742 157/4 181/322 178/298
1753 155/5 178/322 174/298
1804 153/7 173/323 169/298
1814 152/7 173/323 170/299


Edited by zmdz01 (Fri Sep 23 2005 02:28 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: developing system [Re: zmdz01]
      #56988 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:26 PM

Quote:

With all the discussions of W, WNW, NW, NNW, or N and trying to figure out for myself which way it is going, I decided to use FSU's GIS enabled radar to find the distances and bearing from a singular point (per each radar update) to three select cities. This is not exact science but based solely on these numbers (which in all reality mean absolutely nothing), anyone can see that the hurricane regularly makes jogs (demonstrated in the table by the change in distance over time from a given point).

What does this all mean? Nothing spectacular.




We have to ask our selves...what in nature follows a perfectly linear course?? Answer, nothing...
Even the photons of a lazer beams travel in waves. Basically, if you have anything in motion in physics you have "giga motions", which are unpredictable tough to detect random occurrences that take place on minute scales, that accumulated in time and space and cause perpendicular oscillitory affects on large scales. Hurricanes, such as Rita, are no different. In other words, there are no hurricanes that travel linear paths...they all oscillate, some more minutely then others but they all do so...


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: developing system [Re: zmdz01]
      #56989 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:29 PM

You go, man!. I think ( maybe not very successfully) that I've been trying to say the same thing. It's going to go where it wants to- all we can be is appreciative bystanders. I have tremendous reverence and respect for these storms.

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
Re: developing system [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #56990 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:30 PM

Watching it on radar it appears to me anyway to be rebending a tiny bit to w the past couple hours. 2 hour heading about 310 deg which puts it no the north end of Galveston bay and a 5 hour heading of 320 which would put it very close to the TX/LA border.. Based on this, the NHC center line is looking pretty much dead on to me with the error either way shrinking continously..

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Marianne
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 6
Loc: Hazel Green, AL
Unusual Outlook? [Re: bobbutts]
      #56991 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:45 PM

I've noticed that the NHC 3 Day Outlook and the 5 Day Outlook are almost identical and I haven't seen this before...anyone else?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023809.shtml?3day
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145649.shtml?5day


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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
Buoy 42001 [Re: Marianne]
      #56992 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:52 PM

Looks like buoy 42001 couldn't handle the 40 foot waves yesterday:

Station 42001 went adrift on 09/23/2005 and the last report from its moored position (listed above) was at 0230 GMT.


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JYarsh
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Virginia Beach, VA
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: MikeC]
      #56993 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:55 PM

do you think Rita is going through a ERC right now...the eye has completely closed and the band to the north of the storm has exploded in intensity.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Unusual Outlook? [Re: Marianne]
      #56994 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:57 PM

That is because you did not read the NHC Advisories and NHC Discussions. The advisories indicate the storm will stall for a couple days once inland. This is a big concern because of heavy rainfall totals. The discussions list the forecast track points in lat and lon and if you looked at those you would also see that the points for 72hr, 96hr, and 120hr are identical.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: developing system [Re: zmdz01]
      #56995 - Fri Sep 23 2005 02:58 PM

RADAR IS A GOOD DIRECTION USE BUT ONLY WHEN IT IS IN RANGE OF COURSE:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: developing system [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #56996 - Fri Sep 23 2005 03:02 PM

I TRIED TO LINK THAT SITE I POSTED BUT IT DIDN'T WORK. FOR THOSE WHO DON'T HAVE IT:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.klix.shtml


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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: JYarsh]
      #56997 - Fri Sep 23 2005 03:05 PM

JYarsh:

I don't believe it is. The last posted recon mission shows only one eyewall. If there were multiple eyewalls, it would read "CO" plus the diameters of the eyewalls.

353
URNT12 KNHC 231805Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/1746Z
B. 27 DEG 45 MIN N
92 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2489 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 146 DEG 129 KT
G. 051 DEG 19 NM
H. 930 MB
I. 12 C/ 3064 M
J. 19 C/ 3041 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2318A Rita OB 04
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 1741Z
EYE OPEN NE THRU SE


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: zmdz01]
      #56998 - Fri Sep 23 2005 03:10 PM

129 knot flight level winds would normally suggest 115 knots (between 130-135 mph) at the surface. I don't know if that report was received in time for the 2pm advisory, or if they are thinking that more of a reduction than normal from FL winds is appropriate in this case.

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garrison
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57000 - Fri Sep 23 2005 03:12 PM

Over the past couple IR frames it looks to me like Rita is making a comeback, perhaps that is why Max Flt Level winds went up

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: garrison]
      #57001 - Fri Sep 23 2005 03:16 PM

Chief Met For Fox in Tampa stating the same thing on the Schnitt Show right now

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57002 - Fri Sep 23 2005 03:17 PM

It looks like the transmission time was 1805Z, five minutes after the 2 PM advisory.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #57003 - Fri Sep 23 2005 03:20 PM

There is still an opportunity for intensification in the next few hours, as the outflow has remained excellent. There is no sign of the shear that was supposed to impact the storm closer to landfall, but the water vapor does suggest some upper level SW winds approaching the SW quadrant of the storm. The air is pretty dry in the western quadrant, so it will still be a struggle for it to maintain intense convection all the way around the center.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57004 - Fri Sep 23 2005 03:43 PM

Quote:

There is still an opportunity for intensification in the next few hours, as the outflow has remained excellent. There is no sign of the shear that was supposed to impact the storm closer to landfall, but the water vapor does suggest some upper level SW winds approaching the SW quadrant of the storm. The air is pretty dry in the western quadrant, so it will still be a struggle for it to maintain intense convection all the way around the center.




It's funny, on the 1pm intermediate advisory TPC states "...RITA ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND..."... Shortly there after, very deep ring of exploding convection begins to wrap around and the eye clears right back out again... It will be interesting to see if for ONCE in this frustrating Rita life, we can finally see the winds and pressure behavior with reasonable relationship to satellite presentation. ...Not that it hasn't, but it was interesting that yesterday afternoon it was as impressive as the night before but the pressure rose and winds backed off... odd


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