teal61
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Both the :
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_ten_m_loop.shtml
and the NAM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
Forecast continued NW movement for about 6 hours and the turn west for about another six hours along 29 north then back to the north over or just west of Galveston.
Now I realize that the is not always the best model for tropical systems but the agreement is remarkable.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The 18Z (also not the best for hurricanes) also shows a NW, then W, then NW again motion before landfall. I'm not sure what the models are picking up on, but we'll see how it plays out from here. If nothing else, that suggests the storm might slow down some as the steering currents become slightly less defined. It seems to be cruising along pretty quickly at the moment.
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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On NBC, they just said the is coming out with a special advisory. Isn't the next one at 8 pm???
Never Mind. Just answered my own question.
Quote:
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
Edited by cjzydeco (Fri Sep 23 2005 10:51 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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As if on cue, the eye has made an apparent wobble to the west on the radar loop in the last few frames (actually looks like something just rudely shoved it to the west). Some of that may be an artifact of how the half eyewall is wrapping around the center of circulation.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Does anyone online now have the software to get the pressure readings along the coast...say, Galveston to Morgan City?
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Quote:
As if on cue, the eye has made an apparent wobble to the west on the radar loop in the last few frames (actually looks like something just rudely shoved it to the west). Some of that may be an artifact of how the half eyewall is wrapping around the center of circulation.
I was just noticing that, it will be interesting to seee what happens. BTW JB also made a comment about that in his afternoon update.
What version of the was that. Do you have a link ?
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I've begun long term recording of coastal radar of you can see that here It will remain until is out of range.
Long term Level 3 radar recording courtesy HCW[/url] too.
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oil trader
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
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I supposed that this site would be on fire by this time. Is no event?
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Dougyd
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: Sanibel
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It may be my poor eyesight, but it seems to me that the map overlays are different between the floaters and the radars.
I am wondering if anyone else sees this. I also think this may be one of the reasons for the recent controversy.
Just a thought.
Doug
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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They are sleeping. They will be up all night is my guess.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The version I am looking at is not available on the web to my knowledge (I realize there is more than one floating around... I should be more specific). It is capable of resolving the system pretty well (initalizes the system at around 960mb), but the tracks have been off some. I mention it only because it shows a similar westward jog to the 18Z . I'm interested to see what the 18Z will show with the track.
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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i know there is and all but us in fl are watching too much. should we start watching our backside on the east? it looks like phillipe turned around and then more are coming after that. 
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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Well since you aren't sleeping I was wondering if we could find someone AWAKE to venture forth on the weather conditions to the NE. After all I'm an Arkie and the word tornado rings a bell. :?:
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
i know there is and all but us in fl are watching too much. should we start watching our backside on the east? it looks like phillipe turned around and then more are coming after that.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005
PHILIPPE IS A VERY SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...AND T-NUMBERS
NO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM IS
DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN 12-24
HOURS...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.
Please stay on topic- , until landfall-Thanks~danielw
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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
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Quote:
I supposed that this site would be on fire by this time. Is no event?
I've been mooching around for hours. Been looking at the Sats, learning how to read the recons properly etc as no new posts to read. (Don't normally add as I am still learning - been lurking a couple of months.) I'll be up early to catch up - was waiting for the 6pm but don't think I can last out till the 8pm.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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No sign of any significant westward jog in the 18Z :
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM
The westward movement of the eye seems to have stopped in the last half hour... of course, it hasn't really moved in any other direction either in that time. Satellite indicates a slow NW movement of the overall cloud pattern over the last hour or so.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Latest recon has the pressure back to 930mb, with max flight-level winds of 121 knots. There was a dropsonde a couple of hours ago that measured 110 knots at the surface, so the current official intensity still seems to be accurate.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Largest pressure falls last hour (as of 6 CDT) were in Beaumont, TX (1.6 mb), with Galveston at 1.1 mb and Lake Charles at 1.0 mb.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Latest recon - I'm confused. Is that an elliptical eyewall that is normally in the form of Deg/Max/Min or is that three eyewalls (normally formed Radius-Radius-Radius)?
655
URNT12 KNHC 232322Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/2303Z
B. 28 DEG 28 MIN N
92 DEG 54 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2492 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 151 DEG 121 KT
G. 061 DEG 17 NM
H. 930 MB
I. 12 C/ 3050 M
J. 20 C/ 3061 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SW
M. E 080-30-20
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2318A OB 31
MAX FL WIND 121 KT NE QUAD 2258Z
MAX FLT LVL TEMP 060/10 NM FROM CNTR
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Using the last two Vortex messages.
And assuming that there is No deviation from the present heading.
Rita should cross the shoreline near Star Lake and Clam Lake,TX.
This point is roughly half way between Sabine Pass,TX and High Island,Tx on Highway 87.
If this hypothetical track were to continue.
Rita would pass East of Winnie,TX and cross Interstate 10 East of Exit 833.
This is in the Hamshire, TX area and about 15 miles West of Beaumont, TX.
All of the above assumes no changes in 's heading prior to Landfall.
These points are for the center of the storm. The radius of Hurricane Force Winds is much larger and extend outward up to 75 miles.
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 24 2005 12:11 AM)
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