Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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..looks to be turning to the west, toward the united states and theres an area just southeast of Philippe that they are watching within the next 36 hours, but TS warning for Bermuda, and the peath is westward?..whats going on
God Bless The Tex'
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
..looks to be turning to the west, toward the united states and theres an area just southeast of Philippe that they are watching within the next 36 hours, but TS warning for Bermuda, and the peath is westward?..whats going on
God Bless The Tex'
...I'm sorry, are you asking about Philippe or the subtropical disturbance controling his current motion...?
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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The west side of continues to build back in... IR Loop...
and dry air is still strong to the south and west... WV loop...
Dr. Neil Frank is holding his line that the steering currents are too weak to turn her north before landfall, but he does account for the "wobble" -- if she's on a wobble to the left at the time of landfall, it's Galveston... if she's on a wobble to the right, it's Jefferson County....
He also echoed what many people have been saying on this board... there are no straight lines in nature...  If hurricanes moved in straight lines, this would be much easier....  Also, IMO, it would seem that wobbles way out in the GOM are much easier to bear than wobbles that occur closer to the coast...
They again interviewed the lady on the east end of Galveston who is worried about looters... she says she's "dug in her heels" and isn't leaving....
There are also at least 9 people left on the far west end of Galveston Island... that part of the island isn't protected by a seawall -- it's very narrow and is right at sea level... there are rows of beachfront homes and 10-60 ft. of beach with nothing more than 5' high dunes, depending on the location... officials took a big truck into the area to encourage the people to leave, and reported that the water is already up to the tires across the main road...
I'm headed off to take a short nap now -- I plan on staying up with this thing through the night and into tomorrow....
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Allison
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
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CNN just mentiones CAT 2 possible landfall, which would be awsome..
Lets pray
Sheer is really hurting it.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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There might be only 8 now. They pulled out someone wading around in the surf. He was drunk. He went to jail.
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Marianne
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Hazel Green, AL
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Thank you Marge, but perhaps I should have been more clear. I meant historically. I know hurricanes have stalled before, but just haven't had such a graphical realization and was wondering about it...
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mr jimmy
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Spring TX
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Quote:
There might be only 8 now. They pulled out someone wading around in the surf. He was drunk. He went to jail.
Looking at the Texas A&M Buoy 42046, south of Galveston, it has been showing a pressure increase since 9 am today. Note - this is not the start of an "Aggie" joke. The other Aggie "stick" buoy to the east has only wind speed and direction. The next "full service" device is just to the east of Galveston Bay near the shore and is indicating the expected trends as approaches.
BabyCat - are you the one from down the bayou in Lafourche?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42046
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The eye of is starting to come into range of the short-range displays. The long-range shows a relatively dry area in the SE quadrant of the storm, where the eyewall has been reported to be open. There is an outer band showing up better than anything in that quadrant of the storm... I'm not sure of that is something that is part of an outer eyewall or just a regular outer band that is showing up better than anything in the dry area nearby.
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lch_NTP_lp.shtml
you can already see the path of flooding about to occur by this "storm total" loop off of the lake charles radar. this loop is really eerie if you ask me.
if you ask me, looks much more impressive on radar than did at this point.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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oil trader
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
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On Wednesday when got so fast CAT 5 from TS in less than two days, I asked what could happen to improve the situation because it seemed like an action movie turning worse and worse every hour. Since then has weakened very rapidly as well, and biggest cities have left west of the forecast eye. That is wonderful.
What scares me at this moment is how confidence everybody is going trough this storm right now. You can feel it on television, in market behavior, and especially in this forum less than 12 hours before landfall (few posts, no mods appearances, etc.). On Wednesday we were up to the end of the world and today the only problem is people jammed in Texas roads. Let’s pray everything keep going in this way. Nevertheless this bipolar conduct makes me a little nervous about the end.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
Looks like buoy 42001 couldn't handle the 40 foot waves yesterday:
Station 42001 went adrift on 09/23/2005 and the last report from its moored position (listed above) was at 0230 GMT.
The buoy that we'd be getting readings off of right now was busted loose from . Apparently the meterological buoys in the GOM are only designed for CAT3's. The way things are going I think there is going to be a universal change in the way everyone around the GOM prepares for hurricanes. Levee's, houses, buoys, oil platforms, EVERYTHING is going to have to be redesigned.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Oil Trader, I wouldnt say people are relaxing. They still know this is serious.
More Good News, Looks like NO is out of the heavy rain bands.
Every hour the storm is moving more away from NO.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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i HOPE THERE IS NO STRENGTHENING. aS IT LOOKS NOW, RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT IS GOING TO DO A NUMBER ON LAKE CHARLES AND EVEN LAFAYETTE.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Well, it looks as if the downgrade to a Cat 3 may have been premature. No sooner did they downgrade when recon found 129kt winds which would correlate to 135 at the surface. The central pressure has actually dropped a tad and the satellite presentation has DRAMATICALLY improved in the past 3 hours. The earlier dry-air intrusion observed has since been mixed out and the convection has blossomed with a much larger with colder cloud tops.
Even the 5pm discussion hints at the fact that may be intensifying. They stated that objective T-Numbers have started to come up, indicating winds are stronger than the quoted 125mph in the latest advisory. As usual, the is taking the conservative road, stating that they are waiting for a trend before officially declaring as a stronger hurricane.
I think they are trying to avoid the negative emotional impact of declaring as once again attaining Cat 4 status unless absolutely necessary.
--Lou
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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I agree. The IR and water vapor satellite presentation has improved of late. It even looks as though fought off the dry air that was trying to rotate in from the northwest earlier. I would not be surprised to see inch back up to a Cat IV before landfall. All in the path of the hurricane will be in my families thoughts and prayers.
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zmdz01
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
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Here's the latest posted recon info:
610
URNT12 KNHC 232100Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/2031Z
B. 28 DEG 09 MIN N
92 DEG 37 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2493 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 289 DEG 91 KT
G. 197 DEG 15 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 14 C/ 3055 M
J. 20 C/ 3056 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2318A OB 20
MAX FL WIND 124 KT NE QUAD 2037Z
EYE OPEN E THRU W
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Rita is just struggling to hold its own at the moment. Latest pressure is up slightly to 931mb. The eyewall appears to be almost half open. Unless it can close off the eyewall, it will struggle to maintain its current intensity. FL winds still indicate 110-115 knots at the surface, but the dropsondes I have seen do not support that intensity.
There is still a tremendous amount of outflow, but the outflow pattern is no longer as symmetric as it was... it is expanding rapidly to the north while becoming slightly restricted to the SW. It looks like upper-level SW winds are going to be impinging on the the system soon. The window for strengthening may be about over. The strong outflow still would support some intensification, but there needs to be an increase in organization of the eyewall for that to occur. Time is running out for that.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Rita looks alot like did just before landfall, and the rapid weakening that took place.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Very intense burst of convection on the NW eyewall in the last few IR frames, but radar indicates that the eyewall is still having difficulty closing off on the south side.
The entire eye is now within range of the short-term Lake Charles NEXRAD. Any significant changes from here on out (both track and intensity) should be apparent from the radar presentation.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Yes but for novices who are reading to find out if aunt matilda or uncle travis are in danger, we must point out that the effects of the storm have been generated already and that even if the storm weakens, 937 mb of pressure are very, very, low and it would take the storm sitting out there winding down for another day or so to reduce the danger to the population at this point. Just know how lost I was when we first started reading the board and would wonder if this was better or worse about the storm. Television goes a long way toward creating a doubting public with exaggerated coverage of other events. Just including that this weakening storm does not mean it is going to be nothing to worry about.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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