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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)

News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Senior Storm Chaser

Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: tornado time [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57327 - Sun Sep 25 2005 07:58 PM

The rain is good for places like George County, with most of their timber on the ground now. Possible fires were getting to be a real issue there in the weeks after Katrina. I do think it was a blessing however for all the people that were left out in the open along the entire MS Gulf Coast in the weeks afterward that had little shelter, that they didn't have to contend with rainfall. Of course there are still folks camping out on their slabs (Frank P is going to be one of them, but at least he'll have a trailer).

BTW heard from my brother today and they did manage to get all those folks out of the flooded Ocean Springs communities overnight Thursday night before Rita hit and they had the 4-5 additional feet of water plus the 2.2 foot high tide. He said that they just barely got the patrol cars out on the last trip, as the flooding was increasing, just as they picked up the last folks. The water didn't start to go down until about mid-morning Friday.

Also - he said that now since it has been a month and there is still no housing for about 80% of the people in the county, with a lot of houses that are intact having maybe four, five families in them, he said it is really getting on everyone's nerves. This last four days he was on duty he says they answered the same amount of "domestic dispute" calls they usually handle in a month.

Also - saw an overhead shot from a helicopter on Fox News today that was labeled "Campron LA" (under a photo section called "Scenes from Rita") but which was clearly Holly Beach, although they may have meant to say Cameron instead. There was nothing left except pilings, slabs and telephone poles. The city was completely gone.

I found more on Holly Beach, also apparently called "The Cajun Riviera" as well as this comment:

"The structures, which appear to be of a temporary nature, are "built to be rebuilt." Their close proximity to the Gulf makes them a prime target for the ravages of hurricanes and other tropical storms."

Here's a story about the last two people to leave town before Rita:


I also found these great USGS coastal classification maps of the entire western LA coastal area:


Edited by Margie (Sun Sep 25 2005 09:07 PM)

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Storm Tracker

Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: tornado time [Re: Margie]
      #57329 - Sun Sep 25 2005 08:25 PM


The rain is good for places like George County, with most of their timber on the ground now. Possible fires were getting to be a real issue there in the weeks after Katrina.

I agree, but disagree more only becuase witht eh ground soo dry, the rain wasn't absorbed it just sat there, and may sit there for a good week and a half or so.

2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

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Posts: 3526
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: last few days of september [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57330 - Sun Sep 25 2005 08:41 PM

Hank. I'm for number 4. "the system doesn't develop".
But after reading the flash flood warning from NWS San Juan. Seems there is an abundance of tropical moisture present.

The Jackson,MS afternoon AFD, is sticking with a cool frontal passage around mid-week.
Progging lows in the upper and mid 50s by week end.
Indicating the "GFS is forecasting 850mb temps of 0.0 Celcius in Northern MS on Thursday evening and surface dewpoints ( read-really dry air! ) in the 30s at most locations Friday".

Lake Charles and New Orleans NWS Offices are in agreement with the cool down late this week.

The forecasted cool front, if and when it appears, could provide a 'block' to any tropical systems.
Hypothetically this could result in a barrier to storms in the Central and Western GOM. Leaving Florida and possibly Alabama open.

Worst case scenario, similar to Charley '04. Where a weak cool front deflected/ turned Charley prematurely into the Punta Gorda area.
Presently we have NO organized Tropical systems. And here's to hoping that last until 01 November.

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Posts: 3526
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
SE Texas [Re: danielw]
      #57331 - Sun Sep 25 2005 08:52 PM

Here's the best reason I've seen yet to stay out of the SE Texas and SW Louisiana areas.


96 (1931)___98 (1920)____90 (1939)
( IAH-Houston Airport, CLL-College Sta,TX, GLS-Galveston)

Very few places have electricity. Evacuees returning early are now faced with Record Breaking Temperatures, no running water, air conditioning or ways to cool themselves.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser

Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: SE Texas [Re: danielw]
      #57334 - Mon Sep 26 2005 01:17 AM

not sure if it's already be posted.... there is a storm chaser who has a close-up of that tornado the wbrc news is showing on cnn, near tuscaloosa, ala... yesterday afternoon.... i was watching it on my GRLevel 3 program and saw the warning and said it was being tracked by local tv station and storm spotters and chasers and was an extremely dangerous tornado.... being tracked.... saw the tower cam footage and it looks almost like what i and jason saw back on sept. 15th, 2004 (ivan)......although this one looked bigger and wasn't heading towards the camera!!! ..... i am trying to find a link.... a know there was a news station airing it.... i did find this pick
here....There is tower cam footage.... but i saw an up close video somewhere........ Rita put down some tornados yesterday.... i saw up too 30-40 warnings out of BHMX and Huntsville NWS..... within 3-5hrs..... busy guys up there!!!
thanxs to Rita.

Here's WBRC Fox 6 tower cam page for there web site....would of seen it live on the internet yesterday...

WOW Check out this pic..... here.... (report: the tornado was on the ground for 12mins)


Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Sep 26 2005 02:44 AM)

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Weather Watcher

Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
Re: Extended Models [Re: LoisCane]
      #57335 - Mon Sep 26 2005 01:17 AM

Yes, it did smell like dead animals. By day there were bobcats, backhoes, helicopters and chainsaws. Whenever a car or truck drove fast on the street it stirred up a cloud of drywall dust and fiberglass which about choked us. There was a ban on any open fires as it had not rained since the storm, at least not till the outer bands of Rita started coming in.

At night we were the only ones on the street and we were armed in our tent as every so often a strange car would slowly drive up the street and as we were two women alone...You could see through the houses where the surge had taken out the walls of the houses coming and going.

In the tree above our tent hung trophys and stuffed animals among other things from peoples houses. We salvaged exactly enough to fill one tote. My sis was devestated.

I came home and slept for the best part of two days and I still feel shellshocked. It truly was like someone had dropped a bomb on the place. I can't begin to convey the destruction and how I feel after the experience. I think it will take a while to get over it. I went through Charlie last year and this was nothing like what I experienced then. I feel for the people who are living there right now.

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Verified CFHC User

Posts: 17
Loc: Abbeville, LA
Re: Heading back to Abbeville [Re: heynow]
      #57338 - Mon Sep 26 2005 10:09 AM

I finally made it back home and all is well with my house...but my community is in shambles. Personally, I was very lucky, but my community wasn't. Almost every city in the parish (parish=county) is underwater. And the parishes to the west (Cameron and Calcasieu) are not only underwater but most of the structures along the coast are completely gone. Not only houses, but telephone poles, electrical lines, etc. It is as if they never existed. Keep in mind, many of the structures along the coast in the region are built on stilts and not slabs.

We are experiencing record heat down here, which adds to the desperation. The high that helped steer Rita also brought record-breaking heat all last week and continues to do so. We have been seeing temps at around 98 degrees with a heat index of 110. Today, we expect 95 with a heat index of 108. Luckily, a cool front is supposed to come in tomorrow and drop our temps considerably. Yea! A bright spot.

I know this is not a chat room, but I had to post what is going on in my neck of the woods. I have been a registered member here since last year and although I am not a weather expert, I have learned so much from all the members here. Because I am a part of this online community, I feel like I have insider information when it comes to the weather. And because of the exchange of knowledge at flhurricane.com during the run-up to Rita, I was fully prepared and knew what to expect. Thank you.


I've lived through Danny ('85), Juan ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05) and Gustav ('08).

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Senior Storm Chaser

Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Extended Models [Re: mojorox]
      #57339 - Mon Sep 26 2005 10:09 AM

Where in Ocean Springs did your sis live? Just wondering if she was one of the folks my brother rescued on Thursday night with the flooding from Rita. He said there were folks camping in tents on their slabs in some of the devastated neighborhoods; that was why he was risking driving through the flooded streets to get down that way. He also organized some other patrol cars as well to make sure they got everyone.

Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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Weather Hobbyist

Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: Lull [Re: Random Chaos]
      #57340 - Mon Sep 26 2005 10:11 AM


99L is up enough already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (shakes head and has instant headache)

Had to use the backup site. The regular Navy site isn't working for me today.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master

Posts: 489
Re: Lull [Re: Hootowl]
      #57341 - Mon Sep 26 2005 10:25 AM

And we're off! Here are the models on where it may go:


and its possible intensity...couple models to Cat 1:


Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
i get it... [Re: Hootowl]
      #57342 - Mon Sep 26 2005 10:34 AM

models are finally collectively showing something that makes sense about the evolution later this week. there are two areas that have development prospects. i'll mention a third just because it would be weird as hell if it came about.
one: the wave in the caribbean. most of the models have it slowing down in the nw caribbean as the environment becomes more favorable. still a goodly bit of shear down there, so this may come about more slowly than shown... but several globals have a system present near/east of the yucatan in 3-5 days. if it develops, like a mexico or maybe south texas thing. more likely mexico, but it may get stuck down there.
two: the wave in the eastern atlantic near 40-45w. this is the system the outlooks have been saying 'could be entering a more favorable environment' for a couple of days now. the environment isn't getting a whole lot more favorable, but it is going west and remaining coherent. several globals don't develop/recurve this thing now, instead getting it stuck near the end of the run over the coming weekend as that early october ridge blocks it off the east coast. now i see where that wave underneath was coming from. if it gets caught, we may have it running at us between florida and the carolinas.
three: remember all the talk about Rita coming back to the coast? well, it is in a fashion. the surface system went out like a shot to the ne unexpected by all those models that stalled the system.. but there's still a lot of rain over ms/al. a lot of the mid-level energy did get left behind instead, so the models/forecasts were partially on. it isn't Rita, but this vestige does have the slightest chance of moving s and sw into the gulf and redeveloping. some of those earlier forecasts were totally nuts after all.
checked the SOI index and its still trending positive with negative interludes. this is a favorable pattern for bursts of atlantic development, that we've had in both july and much of september. the period between october 3rd and 7th or so ought to be a strike window for the east coast, so we aren't rid of threats by any means, even though it's getting later in the season and when we'd more traditionally just look at florida/the caribbean.
HF 1434z26september

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru

Posts: 184
Re: i get it... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57343 - Mon Sep 26 2005 10:52 AM

Maybe if everyone quit wishing for a lull we'd actually get one LOL!!

Seems to consensous for the Yucatan at the moment...noticed the CMC wants to spring something up in the Bahamas in a couple of days & ride it up to Ga/SC...guess that's what you were talking about...see if/how the others come in line on it.

You know who is real bullish on things as well...surprise surprise...but he does seem to have a knack for noticing pattern setups.

ETA>>>possible recon tomorrow as well.

Edited by twizted sizter (Mon Sep 26 2005 11:03 AM)

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Weather Analyst

Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: i get it... [Re: twizted sizter]
      #57346 - Mon Sep 26 2005 12:22 PM

That little system in the central carribean looks pretty good to me. Isn't it the same one that was going through the lower islands last week? Looks like building convection and some ridging over it thanks to that weak ULL moving west over the Florida straights..
The METS here have been suggesting a GOM low later in the period too. The trough from Rita and the front will be hanging around to be sure.
If as HF says the SOI will become favorable and as Clark stated a few days ago the MJO will reinvigorate, we may be seeing things go in these areas sooner than we like. I hope not as I am leaving for about ten days this weekend, and I don't want that uncertainty.

I think the season will halt abruptly around the middle of the month.


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
recon [Re: twizted sizter]
      #57348 - Mon Sep 26 2005 12:56 PM

I think the possible recon was listed for Wednesday, not tomorrow (it was listed on the outlook for the succeeding day in tomorrow's POD). The ULL that currently appears to be centered north of Cuba could play a role in making the upper-level winds somewhat unfavorable for development in the next couple of days, both for the system over the Carribbean and anything that might try to develop out of the disturbed weather over the NE Gulf.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Mon Sep 26 2005 12:56 PM)

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Ed in Va
Weather Master

Posts: 489
Re: i get it... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57349 - Mon Sep 26 2005 01:08 PM


Looks like that energy you mentioned in #3 is dropping into the Gulf...be worth watching:


yeah, most of the models show it dropping in and fading out. it doesn't look like it'll shear out, it's just probably partially baroclinc right now and will tend to weaken as the upper trough pulls away unless it can tap into tropical energy sources. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Sep 26 2005 01:12 PM)

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Posts: 464
Loc: Tucson, AZ
99L [Re: MikeC]
      #57351 - Mon Sep 26 2005 01:31 PM

Floater 1 is now on 99L a possible banding feature, but still very disorganized. No real surface circulation according to QUIKSCAT. So it'll take some time to become anything... if it ever does...


M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD Student

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Senior Storm Chaser

Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 99L [Re: Bloodstar]
      #57352 - Mon Sep 26 2005 02:00 PM

I was just looking at that. You can see the shear blowing the clouds to the SW on the clouds to the east, and to the W on the clouds to the west. I'm trying to understand the models...does the ULL over Cuba move a little west the next couple days? Well there is warm water over both of the general tracks indicated by the models, but a lot of shear will keep much from developing for the next couple days, right? It seems so difficult to make anything out of these clouds before they form into a tropical depression...I thought I saw some low level clouds moving a little circularly for a time, more to the west of where the center is supposed to be, at around 14N 73W, but I guess it isn't anything.

Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist

Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: Margie]
      #57353 - Mon Sep 26 2005 03:33 PM

Point taken.

I understand that when such natural disasters occur, as in the case of Katrina, the media are usually first on the scene, and that they head for those locations where they are able to achieve maximum exposure. This can seem tough on the outlying districts that may have taken the brunt of the storm, but The fact of the matter is the majority of viewers expect to see those areas where the most hardship and loss of life has occurred, and that is what the media gives them. I'm sure you would agree that the number of casualties and deaths that occurred would have been within the city of New Orleans, not the coastal parishes that you mention, so I believe that my observation is just.

Another aspect of media coverage is the need to convey to the viewing public the wholesale devastation that can occur in these situations in order to stimulate a response from the authorities that might otherwise fail to materialise. The destruction that Katrina wrought on the Gulf coast was widespread, and it would have been physically and logistically impossible for news companies to get crews on the scene at every concievable location where damage was expected. I believe that the media's coverage of the storm was fair and balanced considering the circumstances. Yes, the residents of the communities that you mention have every right to be upset with their lot but, in the wider context I also believe that, on reflection, they will come to understand the media's justification for their actions.

Dave Foster

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Senior Storm Chaser

Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: dave foster]
      #57355 - Mon Sep 26 2005 04:11 PM

No I don't agree. NOLA most definitely did not get the brunt of Katrina. Didn't you look at any of the images in the link I provided?

The situation in NOLA was that there was no evac plan for a very large number of people, and there was also as assumption that the levees wouldn't break. NOLA actually did not receive a great deal of damage from the storm; the afternoon when Katrina had passed NOLA, national news media were saying NOLA had "dodged the bullet," because of that very reason -- the lack of destruction from the hurricane. At that point it truly had. At that moment there was total destruction along a separate 200 miles of coastline that was being ignored.

One levee did actually get destroyed but it was not in NOLA - it was in St Bernard Parish to the east. Four breaks then developed in three canals in NOLA (these have been referred to as levees by the media, but all were actually failures of concrete walls along the edges of the canals, like the sides of a tub, that buckled). Following the breaks to the canals, extensive flooding of NOLA did occur. Then, loss of life occured because there was no plan to get food and water to the people that remained in the two large shelters because there had been no evac plan originally to get them out, and those that had remained in their homes in flooded areas were trapped in their attics or on roofs. NOLA did not have an evacuation plan. Now Houston on the other hand had a successful plan and a successful evacuation, even if it did not end up taking a direct hit from Rita. Houston has many more residents than NOLA.

In other words, NOLA's failure to address evac issues was what caused the loss of life, not damage from the hurricane storm surge and winds.

However storm surge and winds from Katrina wiped out about 200 miles of coastline, and that is not a trivial amount of damage. That is actually where the damage from the hurricane occured - along the coastline in LA, MS, and AL.

The MS Gulf Coast has been through the hurricane drill a number of times. All three coastal counties not only have a comprehensive plan, they spend money just on hurricane preparations. Jackson County purchased two ATV from the National Guard when they were upgrading, for the express purpose of rescuing people from the western and eastern sides of the county during a hurricane (that county is completely divided by water when storm surge occurs). Most people will leave the low-lying coastal areas. That did not leave thousands of people in the direct area of the storm surge, only because they moved out of the way. But most of these people did not move very far inland, only a couple of miles, until the surge had passed. Afterwards, there were and are thousands more in MS, than in the NOLA area, that are homeless -- not because their homes were flooded, but because their homes are gone. Gone. For instance, Biloxi is home to over 50,000 residents. In Pascagoula, somewhere between 90 and 95 % of homes were destroyed, and all those people are now homeless, as there are still no FEMA trailers a month later. In Hancock County, the cities of Waveland, Bay St Louis, and Pass Christain were almost completely wiped off the map. Virutally no buildings were left standing in Waveland, and in Pass Christian I believe less than 30% were left (it may be much less). Even inland communities in Hancock county were destroyed: Diamondhead, Kiln, Pearlington. Extensive damage was done to the cities of Long Beach and Gulfport because unlike Biloxi they were mostly right along the coastline. Ocean Springs, Gulf Hills, D'Iberville - areas that are all pretty much destroyed, where very few buildings remain on the coastline.

A comment from someone just a couple of posts back on this forum: she had just returned from Ocean Springs where she said it looked like "a bomb had gone off" from Katrina.

The type of damage you might be seeing from Rita in Holly Beach, in Cameron -- that is what happened along 200 miles of coastline with Katrina, to approximately 100 communities! Most definitely NOLA was not the primary point of impact for Katrina. Simply because they were able and willing to evacuate, and were not killed, does not mean that they don't suffer more hardship. Plus, 1/4 of the deaths from Katrina were in these areas, not NOLA, and there are many more missing from these areas, where bodies were washed out to sea, that have not yet been added to the total, and will not be added for many more months. This includes over 50 people from Hancock County alone. Once the total toll of life is determined, especially from places like St Bernard and Plaquemines Parish, the number of dead from the areas hit hardest by the storm will most certainly rise to a more significant percentage of the total.

Here are specific images from many of the coastal communities that were wiped out by Katrina. You look at all of these, in detail, then come back and say whether you think canal breaks in NOLA that caused flooding, compares. There is no question that he media coverage was not balanced and not appropriate, and they know it, and that is why they are bending over backwards now with Rita to make an effort to cover the actual damage, rather than focus on Houston and Galveston.

Plaquemine Parish:





Fort Jackson






Tropical Blend



Port Sulfur

Happy Jack

Point A La Heche

St. Bernard Parish


Venitian Isles

Two small coastal LA towns, on a peninsula between two large lakes, nothing left except slabs and mud, not even a debris field:

Pike Fort
Greens Ditch

St Tammany Parish

I-10 bridge spans missing over the lake, at Slidell LA (observe the boat on the interstate bridge)

Wind and water damage at Slidell LA:

Slidell and areas just east got nailed by a particularly virulent piece of the eyewall as it rotated from N to SW when it was right over the city. That area, and to the east, has quite a bit of wind damage in the forest where there are large swaths of trees just snapped off and laying down.

Extensive flooding in Slidell:

Hancock County

Surge and high wind damage in Pearlington MS (east of Slidell)

Part of Lakeshore, MS (nothing left except slabs; no debris field)

Clermont Harbor, MS

Waveland, MS

Bay St. Louis, MS

Diamondhead (BSL area)

Hwy 90 bridge between BSL and Pass Christian

Harrison County

Henderson Point (Pass Christian)

Pass Christian

Long Beach


Gulfport, going east

Western Biloxi

East Biloxi

East Biloxi, Back Bay side

East Biloxi, Back Bay, mud on rooftops!

Hwy 90 Biloxi – Ocean Springs bridge


Jackson County

Ocean Springs

Gulf Hills area, Ocean Springs



Mobile County

Bayou La Batre, AL

Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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Weather Analyst

Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: 99L [Re: Margie]
      #57356 - Mon Sep 26 2005 04:11 PM

It does not look like a LLC is evident yet on 99L.. The NHC will probably need more evidence to send a plane. As for shear from the ULL It looks like it is east of the shear zone and may actually be benefited by the flow over the top of it as far as ventilation is concerned.
I would say 4 on a scale of ten to get something here.
I would guess 2 for the GOM.


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