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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Cameron [Re: danielw]
      #57161 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:27 AM

There's a turn, toward the NE? in those coordinates

A. 24/03:00:30Z
B. 29 deg 01 min N
093 deg 19 min W

A. 24/04:31:50Z
B. 29 deg 07 min N
093 deg 29 min W

A. 24/04:53:00Z
B. 29 deg 11 min N
093 deg 26 min W


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Cameron [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57162 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:28 AM

URNT11 KNHC 240517
97779 05124 71279 9500/ 30400 32055 0907/ /3036
RMK AF309 2518A Rita OB 12
INBOUND SW OB


fixing to get another votex in a little bit

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
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Re: Cameron [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57163 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:31 AM

max making the runs on fox now... 112mph wind guest reported in cameron

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Cameron [Re: danielw]
      #57164 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:34 AM

Jeff Morrow, The Weather Channel, is in Sulphur,LA.
He has just reported that the wind is shifting at his location. Indicating the eye is moving onshore to his ESE.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Cameron [Re: danielw]
      #57165 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:37 AM

max said landfall about 1hr away... just east of state line... he thinks that storm surge will make it to lake charles.... and is worried about it.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
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Re: Cameron [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57166 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:39 AM

well here's landfall (eyewall is making landfall on radar in cameron)

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1153 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT

* AT 1150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE LEADING EDGE OF HURRICANE RitaS EYEWALL APPROACHING JEFFERSON
COUNTY AND CAMERON PARISH.

* DESTRUCTIVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 TO 120 MPH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES AS WELL AS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE
COUNTIES PRODUCING TORNADO-LIKE DAMAGE THROUGH 2 AM.

TAKE COVER NOW! TREAT THESE IMMINENT EXTREME WINDS AS IF A TORNADO
WAS APPROACHING.

THESE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE SIMILAR TO A
TORNADO. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.


CALL 337-477-5285 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEATHER SERVICE.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Sep 24 2005 01:42 AM)


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HanKFranK
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rita delivers [Re: danielw]
      #57167 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:41 AM

storm is getting close to landfall. at it's forward speed it'll probably be moving ashore at sabine pass around 4am eastern/3am central. extrapolated track takes the eyewall and core of the strongest winds right through the beaumont/port arthur/orange area.. with the significant surge extending westward from there across cameron parish. no reports from lake charles lately, but beaumont is reporting hurricane force gusts now. pressure was hanging around 930mb all evening but since has risen up a few mb.. storm will probably landfall at around 940mb. that's typically a category 4 pressure, but Rita has done as many before it and come somewhat unwound. typical behavior of hurricanes that get insanely strong days before landfall; ERCs slowly broaden their cores and make them into broad, less intense windstorms. with that low pressure the surge will likely be very significant.. locally on the order of 15-18'. i believe the port arthur, johnson bayou, and cameron will see the worst surge damage; the latter two towns should be pummeled to bits. Rita will be with us through the middle of next week. it'll probably be down to tropical storm saturday afternoon and a depression by sunday morning, but the center will be meandering... probably southward after the weekend as advertised by some models. there is a chance it could pull an allison and get back to the gulf, but more likely it will just rain itself out over the very areas that it has impacted worst.
philippe has left us... or rather been declassified. if some system evolves out of that nontropical low that it twisted into i'd personally rename it philippe, since the surface remnant of the former storm is the most significant vortex in the larger system. the whole thing has elongated since the other day, though, and may never acquire tropical characteristics as was earlier surmised.
wave out near 35w isn't looking too hot, but still has some model support. some shear to contend with, but it may fight its way up over the next few days.
noticed the euro seeing a caribbean system now... different from the GFS. it may be resolving it from that piece of wave energy currently near 55w sliding westward, while the northern extremity peels off up into that complex low that ate philippe. GFS still resolving an early october storm that runs at the southeast coast, so i'm not sure which bunch of ideas to buy into. bottom line is that whatever if anything does spring up at the end of the month in the caribbean will have a window to run at the u.s. as the ridge really builds up in the western atlantic during the first week of october.
i checked on the MJO graphic earlier and it is showing that the main wave is finally sliding over, after sending an early pulse in and camping in the pacific for a week or two. lot of shear in the basin now, but if that cools off a little we'll probably see another batch of wannabe storms brew up. give it a few days to calm down from the big zing Rita threw into the circulation as it went haywire a couple days ago... and we may see that.
HF 0541z24september


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Allison
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Re: Cameron [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57168 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:44 AM


96.9 MPH gust reported at Calcasieu Pass.

This station updates frequently... ever 6 minutes or so...

--------------------
Allison


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Storm Hunter
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Re: rita delivers [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57169 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:44 AM

URNT12 KNHC 240542
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:31:50Z
B. 29 deg 22 min N
093 deg 30 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 042 deg 065 kt
G. 315 deg 014 nm
H. EXTRAP 937 mb
I. 11 C/ 3654 m
J. 16 C/ 3653 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-SW
M. C20
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A Rita02 OB 08
MAX FL WIND 113 KT E QUAD 04:48:10 Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
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Re: rita delivers [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57170 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:51 AM

eye is showing up on Base velocity 32nm, from lake charles.. at 2200ft above the ground.... just a tenth of a mile off cameron.... 71kts is a pretty good area... (max out) so i would assume 100mph and plus winds are right near the shore now....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Thunderbird12
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Re: Cameron [Re: Allison]
      #57171 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:55 AM

The water temp has risen about 2 degrees in the last 90 minutes at Calcasieu Pass. I guess that is a sign of the Gulf water being pushed in.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: rita delivers [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57172 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:56 AM

have to say CNN met is kicking butt.... the titan radar and the way he ables to have someone in the background drive the machine while he's talking and for him to be able read and talk is.... i think the best coverage i seen, but have to say fox news live reports are GOOD!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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bobbutts
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Re: Cameron [Re: Allison]
      #57173 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:57 AM

Quote:


96.9 MPH gust reported at Calcasieu Pass.

This station updates frequently... ever 6 minutes or so...




That's 96.9 KT = 110 MPH


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: rita delivers [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57174 - Sat Sep 24 2005 01:57 AM

I mentioned a turn in the Vortex reports.
I'm plotting the fixes on mapping software, and indeed there was a turn to the NE. Followed by a turn back to the NNW.
Curiosity. We have two planes flying and giving fixes. That would give a variable right...two different observers.

The last two Vortex reports yield a heading between them of 338deg Magnetic North.
That would put Rita ashore between Holly Beach and the Tx/ La State Line.
Sending more of the surge into Calcasieu Lake???


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Storm Hunter
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Re: rita delivers [Re: danielw]
      #57175 - Sat Sep 24 2005 02:01 AM

eyewall just came ashore it looks like it was a tight curved line as it came across the beach... and then it looks like it collapsed and spreaded out... on next radar image..... which would mean there getting the crapp kicked out of them in, from Cameron to the west......
NHC sayes eyewall is making landfall...just in

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Sep 24 2005 02:03 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: rita delivers [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57176 - Sat Sep 24 2005 02:07 AM

max back on.... msnbc... eyewall on the coast....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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BabyCat
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Re: rita delivers [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57177 - Sat Sep 24 2005 02:12 AM

I'm watching Fox. They are interviewing 2 people that work at a casino/hotel in Lake Charles on the roof of a parking lot. I keep expecting to see them fly away in the wind.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: rita delivers [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57178 - Sat Sep 24 2005 02:12 AM

URNT14 KNHC 240609
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01281 10949 13020 11009 32051
02283 20947 23997 21010 32054
03284 30945 33969 31010 31061
04286 40943 43923 41210 32069
05288 50941 53846 51010 31046
06290 60939 63774 61810 30065
07292 70937 73659 71810 32069
MF291 M0938 MF075
OBS 01 AT 05:16:50Z
OBS 07 AT 05:42:50Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01296 10934 13610 11414 14095
MF297 M0933 MF107
OBS 01 AT 05:57:10Z
OBS 01 AT 05:57:10Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
AF309 2518A Rita OB 16


based on this.... i think this shows eye is making landfall

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
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Re: rita delivers [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57179 - Sat Sep 24 2005 02:12 AM

0540Z 29.6N 093.3W Max flt level wind 120kts

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danielwAdministrator
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Vortex at landfall [Re: danielw]
      #57180 - Sat Sep 24 2005 02:14 AM

URNT12 KNHC 240602
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:49:50Z
B. 29 deg 23 min N
093 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2539 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 309 deg 075 kt
G. 214 deg 024 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 17 C/ 3063 m
J. 20 C/ 3047 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A Rita OB 13
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z


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