Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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It is hard watching the radar when you know what is happening on the ground. was worse for me knowing my brother was out in the storm rescuing people in the ATV until the surge hit.
Startiing about 0700Z (2am CDT) on the Lake Charles radar you can see the eye coming ashore between Sabine and Constance Beach. Looks like it came in with the west side of the eyewall just touching the TX/LA border, looks to be heading up the state line. couldn't have called this one better, once again (nothing has been said though about the circulation possibly going back out into the Gulf). Looking like the center of the eye making landfall like 2:45am. For a minute I thought the Lake Chas radar was gone, but it came back. Lake Charles the largest community getting the bit hit, also Lafayette, and all those little coastal communities up to about 15 mi inland, to the east of the eye, probably devastated. Wondering how far to the east the coast took a hard hit; I would think all the way to Plaquemines Parish, although I'm kind of hoping it wasn't that bad east of Pecan Island. What a difference for this hurricane, having the major population centers inland; still very sad, especially because now the remaining part of the LA coast getting a direct hit, when they had more than they already needed to deal with from . Places like Grand Isle getting a pretty hefty hit twice in a row, too.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Clark
Meteorologist
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The center of is officially inland, only to weaken yet bring some really bad damage to W Louisiana/E Texas. Band setting up to the east of the storm will keep Lafayette and the Atchafalaya basin under the gun through the morning hours. Slow movement of the storm is going to result in some incredible rainfall totals and I can only hope people are far enough inland and at high enough altitude to be able to escape the inevitable flood waters, whether along the coast or due to rains.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Cloud tops on the IR down to around -85C. That's about as cold as you'll ever see.
Beaumont reported sustained winds of 53 knots with gusts to 80 knots about 10 minutes ago, with a pressure of 956 mb. Hopefully everyone down there is out of harm's way.
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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CNN: 10 inches of rain in parts of Lake Charles already and coming down at 3-4 inches per hour.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I wonder if the truck on that roof top will make it through. I keep expecting to see it slide away.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
300 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005
.DISCUSSION...FIRST EXPERIENCE IN A HURRICANE FOR THIS ILLINOIS BOY.
PARTICULARLY MISSING HOME RIGHT NOW. SOUNDS AS IF A 747 IS SITTING UPON THE ROOF REVVING ITS ENGINES. WIND EQUIPMENT HAS FAILED HERE BUT BELIEVE WE ARE NOW SEEING WINDS POSSIBLY IN A 70 TO 90 KNOT RANGE HERE AT LAKE CHARLES.
NOS GAUGE AT CALCASIEU PASS REPORTED A
GUST TO 112 MPH...AND THEN FAILED. ANTICIPATING A 15 TO 20 FOOT STORM SURGE AND UNSURE AT THIS TIME IF THIS WILL IMPACT US. WAS JUST INFORMED THAT AIRPORT TERMINAL NEXT TO OFFICE HAS COLLAPSED.
JUST HAD A BRIEF COMMS FAILURE BUT NOW BACK UP. UNFORTUNATELY...SINCE WE ARE NOW IN A DIAL BACKUP MODE...WILL BE UNABLE TO UPDATE GRIDS AND WILL TURN THIS RESPONSIBILITY OVER TO OUR CURRENT BACKUP OFFICE SAN ANTONIO.
WE WILL MAINTAIN SHORT-TERM RESPONSIBILITY...NOWCASTS...HLS'S...TAFS...WARNINGS...AS LONG AS WE HOLD TOGETHER.
RITA CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST CAMERON PARISH
ON A NORTH NORTHWEST TRACK...AND RIGHT ON WITH FORECAST TRACK.
SYSTEM PROGGED TO CONTINUE GENERAL MOTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.
INPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LATEST MODELS INDICATING SYSTEM WILL NOT STALL ACROSS REGION...THUS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. JUST A BIT OF GOOD NEWS TO END ON.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LCH/AFDLCH
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well looks like 2:42 was the last radar from Lake Charles. Looks like that is when they got hit with a band of strong convection. So now you're left to hope that the worst that happened was that their instrumentation blew down or their generator failed.
Overall it seems as though many of the strongest winds are not making it to the ground in the areas where reporters are live. Does it seem that way to any of you as well?
The difference between and at landfall seems considerable. Unfortunately NOLA had no time to repair those canal walls (they'll have to be redesigned), so they took a hit with flooding again.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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CNN: Sherriff in Lake Charles reporting sustained winds of 100mph
Edited by BTfromAZ (Sat Sep 24 2005 08:16 AM)
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Loc: Laredo, Texas
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KLVI radio in Beaumont has some sort of internet feed... it's not great, and the official information they're giving seems to be about 30-60 minutes behind, but it seems to be the internet feed nearest to the center of the storm.... right now, people are calling in with their observations and damage reports....
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Allison
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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OTHER MARINE REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA
210 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005
MARINE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM,
AT CALCASIEU PASS AT CAMERON JETTY, THE TIDE LEVEL IS 5.02 FEET WHICH IS 2.83 FEET ABOVE TIDE TABLE LEVELS. THE WIND IS OUT OF THE EAST AT 64 KNOTS GUSTING TO 88 KNOTS.
THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS 80 DEGREES.
THE WATER TEMPERATURE IS 82 DEGREES.
AT SABINE PASS COAST GUARD STATION, THE TIDE LEVEL IS 6.35 FEET WHICH IS 4.41 FEET ABOVE TIDE TABLE LEVELS,
THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS MISSING
AND THE WATER TEMPERATURE IS MISSING.
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Loc: Laredo, Texas
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There's interesting water level data from the stations at Morgan's Point and Eagle Point in Galveston Bay... water is obviously being pushed out of the bay...
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Allison
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
ANTICIPATING A 15 TO 20 FOOT STORM SURGE AND UNSURE AT THIS TIME IF THIS WILL IMPACT US. WAS JUST INFORMED THAT AIRPORT TERMINAL NEXT TO OFFICE HAS COLLAPSED.
!!! The airport at Lake Charles is only 10-12 ft above sea level and is bordered on the E and W by two canals or tributaries to the main waterway. Is this where the NWS is located?
Edit -- note the 08:51Z radar image from Houston/Galveston radar shows the concentric eyewalls very well, as well as the area of intense convection that is to the NE of the inner eyewall.
Also -- there is one feeder band that has been basically sitting in the same position for a couple of hours now, going over the western shore of Lake Ponchatrain. This will be dumping rain in the lake as well as pummeling Grand Isle (southernmost tip of Jefferson County) with onshore wind and water for a very long time.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Sep 24 2005 09:14 AM)
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danielw
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
!!! The airport at Lake Charles is only 10-12 ft above sea level and is bordered on the E and W by two canals or tributaries to the main waterway. Is this where the NWS is located?
I checked their web page but they don't list anything other than "being at the Lake Charles Airport".
I hope that the elevation is enough to keep them dry.
edit: I found it. At 30.1N/ 93.2W. About 5 mi NE of the Northern end of Calcasieu Lake. And not surronded by water.
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 24 2005 09:20 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Both Recon planes have departed and are currently near the MS Coast.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 (edited~danielw)
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADARS INDICATE THAT MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SABINE PASS ABOUT 0730Z WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEAR 105 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB.
SINCE LANDFALL...THE CONVECTION IN THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL HAS BECOME QUITE INTENSE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE OVER LAND.
OVERALLL...RITA SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 18-24 HR AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36 HR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE 120 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION...WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS LONG AFTER THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/240855.shtml
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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Any reports of the storm surge near Galveston? The wind should push the water out, I think.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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In all my dealings with hurricanes any time I was on the west side of a storm we NEVER got any significant type of surge.... north winds always blew the water out, not in.... I would expect the same thing to happen in Galvaston... even for Georges in 98 when we had the eye sit over us in Biloxi for four hours the surge in my part of town was insignificant... 20 miles to the east Pascagoula was dealing with a 12 foot surge... no surge, no surge... all on the west side of the storm... hard for the water to rise when you have hurricane force winds blowing it out...
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danielw
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 228 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 edited.....
..STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RECEDING IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD.
REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA AS THE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD.
SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN THE BAY SIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA... COUPLED WITH A 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 2 AM...WATER LEVELS WILL BE 6 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
FURTHER WEST ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE NORTH FACING BAY SHORES...WATERS LEVELS SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...
COUPLED WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 430 AM. THIS FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
THE GULF WATERS HAVE ALREADY DRASTICALLY RECEDED IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS PUSHING WATER FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF GILCHRIST.
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 24 2005 10:04 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 450 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 edited....
ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
TIDE GUAGES IN OCEAN SPRINGS SHOWS 3.5 TO 4 FEET...
IN GRAND ISLE TIDES ARE 5 FEET AND IN THE MIDDLE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TIDES WERE 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 448 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 edited...
..STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET LIKELY ONGOING IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST. THIS STORM SURGE WILL ALSO LIKELY COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
LOW LYING AREAS IN BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES COULD SEE UP TO 4 FEET OF STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND BAYOUS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES.
VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET IS LIKELY ONGOING. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY...WHERE SURGE WAS BATTERING THE TOWN EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER.
IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET IS LIKELY ONGOING. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY.
I apologize for the lengthy posts. These are the updated Hurricane Local Statements from the affected areas. Apparently, due to communication problems and other problems, no reports of damage or surge have been received by the NWS offices.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 24 2005 10:13 AM)
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