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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: hurricane expert]
      #57635 - Mon Oct 03 2005 12:22 PM

Quote:

The navy web site is putting 92L a tropical deppression with 30 knots.




But I thought there was no closed surface circulation?

Looking back at it on sat image again...lack of experience; can't tell.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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emackl
Storm Tracker


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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: MapMaster]
      #57636 - Mon Oct 03 2005 12:25 PM

Nevermind. I've confused myself as much as you...LOL! I had two parts incorrect. I was thinking that 24N was farther North then the keys and I thought flight 2 was tomorrow also. I figured if it was to move that fast ,it wouldn't have time to organize enough to warrant 2 investigations.

Thanks anyway though.
Jackie


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: emackl]
      #57637 - Mon Oct 03 2005 12:29 PM

Yeah the sat might find 30kt winds but it wont mean its closed. BTW some reason I cant get the Navys site up,,,maybe its down but anyone have link that works?

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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


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Navy website [Re: scottsvb]
      #57638 - Mon Oct 03 2005 12:32 PM

Everyone:

I am using this link for the Navy website. I just checked it and it still works.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Marcus


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: scottsvb]
      #57639 - Mon Oct 03 2005 12:34 PM

I used the backup link a while ago and it worked.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

good luck!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: Hootowl]
      #57640 - Mon Oct 03 2005 12:38 PM

I did get it on 1 link but then gave me a forbidden,,,server problems they have maybe??

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scottsvb
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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: scottsvb]
      #57641 - Mon Oct 03 2005 12:45 PM

now its working for me also.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: scottsvb]
      #57642 - Mon Oct 03 2005 12:46 PM

NRL TC web page hasn't been downloading at all, or has been running so slow it times out with an error msg, since yesterday morning. You can get the page above it, but cannot get down. Web server must be experiencing probs.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: Margie]
      #57643 - Mon Oct 03 2005 12:52 PM

19L is indeed a TD---it is 90L, not 92L.

MM


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HanKFranK
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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: MapMaster]
      #57644 - Mon Oct 03 2005 01:11 PM

19 is history since yesterday. there's still a low level swirl out in the open atlantic.. no consequence.
sorta blew it with stan. i wasn't counting on the ridging forcing it sw, but that's where all the models are clustered and have been for a couple days. official takes it very close to the population center of veracruz, so they'd better get ready.
91L is slated to replicate the general motion of TD 19 and doesn't have much in the way of prospects. hostile environment ahead.
92L i'm not sure what to make of. can see the upper low and the displaced surface trough. there's a long wind-shift line running southeast of all that and i'm not of the opinion that something can't form further back along it. area north of hispaniola looks downright favorable (low level convergence, ridging present aloft). modeling as a group likes the feature near the bahamas right now and develops a closed low as it pushes past south florida into the gulf late tomorrow/early wed. i'm not sure if this will play out as shown or not. it's been mostly ignored, but there's another small trough max/low east of hatteras that's been persisting for days. not writing it off either.
there's almost definitely a system or two in this mess.
HF 1711z03october


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: Margie]
      #57645 - Mon Oct 03 2005 01:21 PM

92L is likely producing winds to at least what you would associate with a tropical depression, but there is no evidence of a closed surface circulation thus far. Given the relatively high pressure to the north of the system, it would not take a very intense surface low to produce tropical storm force winds to the north of the center, and if there was enough convection around the center, it would have to be classified as a tropical system. That has not happened yet, though. If a surface low does form from 92L, it is possible that the system will be at or near tropical storm intensity from the first advisory.

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emackl
Storm Tracker


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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57647 - Mon Oct 03 2005 01:35 PM

The new CMC model: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmcglb/fcst/archive/05100312/64.html

And the new MM5-AF: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5af/fcst/archive/05100312/7.html

Are doing a north Florida threat.

UKMET: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/05100312/90.html

Is doing a south florida, GOM turnaround thing.

I hate when some go south and some go north. Makes me think it may meet in the middle.
I'd rather a fish spinner thank you!


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: emackl]
      #57648 - Mon Oct 03 2005 01:51 PM

92L TC Guidance from Colo State:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Bloodstar
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Turning just north of PR? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #57649 - Mon Oct 03 2005 01:53 PM

Anyone else see a weak turning just north of PR on Long Range Radar Loop?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml

-Mark
(edited to add link to radar)

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student

Edited by Bloodstar (Mon Oct 03 2005 01:55 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Stan [Re: Bloodstar]
      #57650 - Mon Oct 03 2005 02:32 PM

New vortex found a central pressure of 999 mb in Stan, though with 26 knot winds at the surface in the dropsonde, the actual central pressure is likely somewhat lower. The dropsonde data has been interesting... one drop north of the center recorded 48 knot surface winds, even though the max flight level winds found so far are only 38 knots. The official intensity is up to 55 mph, which is somewhere between 45-50 knots.

The latest SHIPS guidance brings Stan up to near cat 3 intensity before landfall in about 48 hours.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Mon Oct 03 2005 02:34 PM)


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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: gfs? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57651 - Mon Oct 03 2005 02:54 PM

Has anybody checked out the GFS animation on 850mb? I guess they dont like Florida much.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Re: gfs? [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #57652 - Mon Oct 03 2005 03:03 PM

yea im looking at the GFS right now, it seems like they have a system forming then slitting and going in dirrent, a part of it with pressure estimated at 996-1000 mb going over the NC extreme eastern areas the coming up the coast and going over RI-Cape Cod area, some of the other little storms that look to have "broke off" affect areas like NC, SC, GA coastal areas, and western Florida.. well i gues we'll wait and see but looking at GFS theres all the systems i talked aboiut, then like 2 or 3 more over by Africa. Ohhhh boy..

Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Bloodstar
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Models and other things [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #57653 - Mon Oct 03 2005 03:08 PM

Well, well well. I wonder what is causing the cut off lows to form in the eastern atlantic? All the models are forecasting anotherone to be stuck out there....

91L has about 24 hours to do something, it's firing up some modest convection near the LLC, but it's about to get pummeled by shear, so it's running out of time. It's odd, but by some definitions it's close to TD status, but probably will never get the benefit of the doubt, barring some very strong convection.

Former TD19 is just barely firing up any convection, but has still maintained a low level swirl around 41W 22N heading just south of due west.

How is Stan Stationary? I'm sure it's just a short term thing, but it still leaves me a little suprised.

The blob that is 92, it's way too complex for me to understand what's going on, though I still maintain there is a hint of a twist in the area near PR (perhaps it's simply convergence).

Any further thoughts and observations?

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Re: Models and other things [Re: Bloodstar]
      #57654 - Mon Oct 03 2005 03:24 PM

i must be way off cuz what i am seeing is more over by 23/73

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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emackl
Storm Tracker


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Re: Models and other things [Re: NewWatcher]
      #57655 - Mon Oct 03 2005 03:28 PM

LOL! I'm seeing it on visable around 23/70!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html


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