jth
Storm Tracker
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Another slight eastward shift to the projected path. I still don't see her ever getting past 92. I am now leaning toward almost not getting past 91. She has undoubtedly shifted NNW at best the past couple of hours. The turn north will then follow and then NE. Bill you may not be that far off. Admittedly I thought you were nuts at first, but now........Everyone say your prayers for the Cajuns and the revelers in the Big Easy.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Cappycat, smart move. I feel you will be about 60 miles from the eye wall. Any shift to the East will put you closer. I think early morning hours, around 9am landfall. Good luck!!!
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kyle
Unregistered
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whats going on i am in pensacola i dont wanna wake up with a cat4-5 right south of biloxi or mobile or pascagoula. but i seen the turn everyone is talking about i dont think we are outta the woods yet by any means. god bless the folks in the path of the storm though.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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At 938 mb, Lili would tie for #13 on the all time lowest pressure list (at US landfall).
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Bill
Unregistered
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Ok, based on the current motion, etc, I am going to throw in the towel on Pascagoula and go with Intracoastal City - up to 50 miles ot the east as the landfall zone...there may still be a sharp recurve just at or after landfall that will take the center over southern Ms , we will see....
315 degrees instead of 320-325...I was off just a bit, but it is turning more north with time..timing as always is everything...
IHS,
Bill
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cappycat
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Raceland, LA
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Just watched three different weather updates and all of them have shifted the projected land fall east. oh joy. They had landfall at New iberia, but conceding that the track could possibly be shifted even further east.... another one said closer to Morgan City. I wasn't scared until now.
Our house is built up into the loft of a barn, so no fear of flooding. Water would have to be 14-15 ft deep to get to our front door. It is a steel structure, anchored into an 8 inch slab of concrete. We weathered Andrew at my father's house, but suffered no wind damage or leaks at our home. I am wondering about what wind of 140 mph will do to such a structure. My father (next door) has NOT boarded up at all, so I am thinking that here may be safer than there, even though we are up so high. babbling out of fear, now. Oh!!! we need to take down the direct tv dish!!!!
Wish we had taken up the invite to Birmingham.
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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered
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I've liked my forecast track from the beginning - St. Mary or Iberia Parish. I used New Iberia/Franklin as the landfall locations, but obviously neither is right on the coast. Intracoastal City or Port of Iberia are probably gonna get slammed. I still think the center comes in around New Iberia, but obviously could be closer to Franklin or Morgan City. The parishes along the coast from the TX Coast to Mississippi are: Cameron, Vermillion, Iberia, St. Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche, Jefferson, Plaquemines then St. Bernard and St. Tammany climbing up around the east side of the state toward the MS Gulf Coast.
FYI stuff.
Steve
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Brett
Unregistered
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I know its still conjecture at this point, and probably will be until sometime late tonight, but it still looks to me like a bee-line NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
I just don't see the nothward motion yet you are all seeing. I say watch out Vermillion. God, I hope those people got out of these.
By the way, I am pretty sure the outer eye-bands are visible on the NO radar now:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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The outer bands have been visible on NO radar for a while now. After these there should be a small break and then we'll see the meat of the storm moving in. Its gonna be an interesting night. I wonder how many of us will get any sleep tonight.
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cappycat
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Raceland, LA
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re: folks getting out.... friends of mine left at about 1-2 PM from Houma. They are stuck in traffic in Des Allemends (a drive that normally takes 30 minutes).
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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seems to be the center. will be able to get a good fix on her now. With her fast movement, landfall I say early morning hours.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i keep hearing its turning north its turning north.. getting a little old. pretty sure N.O. wont see more than some rain squalls.. none of that hurricane force wind business. alabama and mississippi.. its already past you guys.. forget there's a ridge steering it around ya? no need to have a conniption fit, unless youre an excitable cajun. heading on the last advisory was 315, which is due NW.. it's come around from 300 during the last 48 hours. probably still have a westerly component at landfall. beaumont is looking less likely now, cameron and vermillion have the bullseye on them. right side of the hurricane should come across as far over as new iberia/franklin/lafayette.. maybe hurricane force winds as far over as morgan city. idea is that the hurricane's core passes between population centers to the west (beaumont/port arthur) and east (lafayette/new iberia).. the hammer comes down in a less populated region. all of the coastal counties have mandatory evacs up for the low lying areas.. so if people drown down there its their fault for not leaving. dont imagine anyone wants to test lili's threat.
anyhow, intensity. 938mb.. pressure will probably not go much lower, think the storm is mostly done intensifying. probably just fluctuate around where it is, maybe weaken slightly right before it hits. turn north upon moving inland, and be going northeast by the time it reaches about 32n. this is the real deal.. right here and now it's on par with hugo at SC landfall.
i've been consistently low with my intensity track, and will probably end up being 50-125 miles too far west on the landfall point (not to mention a few hours late).. so like i keep saying, there aint no guru here.
well.. now, kyle. more consensus on it starting west.. how soon and how much will determine whether it threatens. if it deepens and moves out under the ridge periphery.. threat to the eastern carolinas this weekend, early next week.. and then up towards new england later, maybe. if bastardi is to be believed (thank God he's still online, thought he'd be a pay service by now).. and i put stock in things he says.. this could come to pass.
of course it could just stay put, dissipate.. or for some silly reason keep drifting east. slow moving storm with very little steering.. just cant say.
HF 2215z02october
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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HF, I think your snide comments and self righteousness are getting alittle old:
i keep hearing its turning north its turning north.. getting a little old. pretty sure N.O. wont see more than some rain squalls.. none of that hurricane force wind business. alabama and mississippi.. its already past you guys.. forget there's a ridge steering it around ya? no need to have a conniption fit, unless youre an excitable cajun.
I really dont believe MS or AL have a chance of Lili being a direct hit, BUT if there is a chance a change in motion that (COULD) impact AL, I want to hear it. I have learned over the years at this board, that there has been lots of instances where you guys were right before changed there track. I dont rely solely on , I rely of this board.
If you disagree with my comments and questions, fine, but you are not going to belittle me for asking questions.
Southern
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Lets just pray it hits an area of less populated cities and that people drove north and took the safe road.
Surprised she went Cat 4, now wondering if she has peaked.
Don't think you can have it both ways... either she keeps moving fast and misses new orleans but will go in as a more dangerous cane.
The thought that it would hook right slow down a drop would make it hard to imagine it would keep intensifying.
Right now going with people here online who have insisted she should stay east of New Orleans.
Want people to understand that we don't wish this storm on any small parish but the levee system of New Orleans has always been in question for a Cat 3 storm let alone a Cat 4.
I's so amazing to watch that there isn't anything to say beyond pray, pack and Lili is one for the record books. Seeing history being made right before us with each shot.
She reminds me in structure of Andew but with the leaning in look of Hugo.. Scarey and numbing for those of us that know what a real storm can do...
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Some models called for a hard right turn... hoping it doesnt.. hasn't happened yet so lets keep our fingers crossed.
Neil Frank more than Miami forecasters seen on CBS tonight implied he was watching for the turn to come...but said it hasn't happened yet.
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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rickinmobile
Unregistered
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so a shift to the east 125 miles...and that's it?....
WRONG hank frank....
looking at the satelliltes...definitely slightly north of nw now...maybe not nnw for another few hours...however...this hurricane can easily take another 20 hours...and in the last 10 hours...we have seen a 15 degree shift...haven't we....?...all we are talking about now is about 30 degrees...or so...and the farther north it goes..the greater likelihood it wil turn further north quicker...
granted...it could even stay on its general path and hit central louisiana or so...
my take...
a gradual loop to knife through the lowlands of Louisiana...and either punish New orleans on the left, right, or dead center...
but to think New Orleans is out of the woods is wierd....to think that 20 hours from landfall the deviation won't continue to occur is belying the obvious. IT WILL continue to curve gradually around, and Bill's idea of Pascagoula is a savvy one. may not happen...but at least he threw it out there...
Pascagoula is in deep dooodooo
New Orleans is in deep doodoooo
No one in Mobile is taking this seriously....hopefully they and I are not in deep doo dooooo
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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HankFrank, you are a guru. Well informed post, as always.
Very good point about non-LA people being worried. One thing that Lili is besides being stong: she's fairly compact. Other than those on the central LA coast who are say,50 miles on either side of the eye, and then take the track inland 100 miles or so, are in major danger. She's not going to stop. She's not going to suddenly turn west. She's not moving to the NE, still going NNW at worse, putting some distance between the big easy and the landfall. New Orleans isn't out of the woods by any means, but anywhere east of MS is your mind playing games with you. Watch her outflow, not just her center. If it points at you, you got a problem. It's northwest-southeast, pointing right at it's target, central LA.
Hopefully everybody on the coast is out of the way by tonight, my thoughts are with them and their loved ones. Buildings can, and will, be replaced. Alot of wildlife will find itself in new surroundings by friday morning. But any person who is in the path hopefully did the smart thing and left for higher ground, to say the least. Now's not the time to hope for good luck, it's tme to cover your ___.
Joe in JAX
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ah, thats just me. when people keep calling the hurricanes to them all the time its a little funny. especially when it's clear as day that theyre in the green. if you dont want me to make fun of ya, easy on the 'it could hit me' melodrama, unless youve got a better reason than 10mph winds and mostly cloudy skies. that isnt mean or self-righteous.. pretty normal response. i may point out when other people are wrong.. but i spend just as much time pointing out where *I* am wrong. fair enough, eh? ¿no sé? its the bayou country of louisiana that takes this one on the nose.. not texas, not new orleans, not mobile. thats all there is to it.
HF 2306z02october
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rickinmobile
Unregistered
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ya'll must be looking at it sideways...cause the main outflow is pointing directly north now....DUH
this thing is turning....and it ain't gonna miss nawlin's enough not to cause catastrophic damage...
imho
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anon(ShawnS)
Unregistered
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We got lucky again!
ShawnS
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