josef
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Ok Hugh.
My question it´s because on tv, here in Porto, thay said de notice. When we see the images of we think the same problems in Portugal. But, your experience tell is not possible the same problems with Vince!?
May be, only a lot of rain?
Edited by josef (Sun Oct 09 2005 06:56 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Ok Hugh.
My question it´s because on tv, here in Porto, thay said de notice. When we see the images of we think the same problems in Portugal. But, your experience tell is not possible the same problems with Vince!?
May be, only a lot of rain?
Josef,
I'm not going to tell you that it's not possible that Portugal could experience the same types of things that the Gulf Coast had happen with , because I can't predict the future. However, it's extremely likely that Vince will weaken before it impacts Europe. Even if it maintained the current intensity, that is significantly weaker than was when it slammed into Louisiana and Mississippi. Not that a hurricane in Europe can ever be considered "weak" of course.
One thing of note... yesterday no one was paying any attention to what is now Vince. It's possible that it couldd fissle out just as quickly as it formed and became semi-tropical - although I have to say looking at the satellite imagery it does not appear to be weakening... but it might even get a bit stronger in the very short term.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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josef
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Dave, the ºC of whater in Portugal ( South) it´s betewen 21º-25º Celsius. In Madeira Islands the same.It´s possible Vince became more strong today ( Monday in Portugal) or your experience tells it´s imposible.
Edited by josef (Sun Oct 09 2005 07:10 PM)
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josef
Registered User
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If i ask you Hugh or Dave, what are de % of possible VInce toutch Oporto city with strong wins and rains, you tellm me what?
josef: not much possibility vince is strong when it comes by. a normal ocean storm is going to be swallowing vince as it nears portugal/spain. it should weaken. a little windy/rainy should be your weather on tuesday october 11. nothing like --would need very warm ocean. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Oct 09 2005 09:49 PM)
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Lysis
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Yo, Josef. Vince is an itty bitty hurricane, and due to its location, info on the actual intensity is hardly going to be definitive.
Hurricanes are as strong as their surrounding have the ability to sustain them. The magic temp for development is 26.5 C, but the situation with Vince is a bit more complicated, as noted earlier, and not wholly dependent upon the water temperature. I just want to assure you that this isn’t the same deal as and all the horrible images that have come out of the Northern Gulf Coast, so you don't need to panic or anything.
You can check the for maps and discussions, and feel free to ask here if you have any questions.
--------------------
cheers
Edited by Lysis (Sun Oct 09 2005 07:40 PM)
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La Nimo
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Old Sailor, good call on Vince nobody was calling for a cane except you. You think Vince will stay a Hurricane to land fall?
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typhoon_tip
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Clark,
That is true, it is more important to note the sounding data for profiling what environments are conducive.. In fact, I'm sure you have heard of "Arctic Low" phenomenon as well... Very similar, very fascinating.
The fact of the matter is (which from the sounds of it you are aware) the very distinction between cyclones is a complicated one...
The lowest common denominator is the corriolis force...So long as you have upward moving air and convergent replacement at the surface, that is all you really need... Don't mean to preach to the quire but there are multiple reasons to get this upward moving air going; tropical mechanics are just one.. What is really amazing about all this is that you can start out with a baroclinic system and end up with a barotropic one (1991) if conditions are right. In fact, on on-camera meteorologist friend of mine has often said (and I agree) that you almost cannot have a hurricane moving into middle latittudes and interacting with the westerlies without some kind of hybrid argument...
Trust me; you know a lot!
Peace
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typhoon_tip
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If anyone's interested the following link has some awesome Vince - sat, etc.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/storm2.html
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Margie
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Josef, it looks like you shouldn't be worried. You can view the National Hurricane Center Advisories and Discussions here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Also the latest advisory is posted on this web site, in the upper LH corner.
What you should ALWAYS go by is the information and your local weather statements. These are the official forecast statements and has an extremely good track record.
From the 5pm advisory:
...MAINLY A HAZARD FOR MARINE INTERESTS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
and
VINCE
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY
And from the discussion:
A COLD FRONT IS SEVERAL HUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF VINCE... AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... IT SHOULD PULL VINCE NORTHEASTWARD AT A GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST THAT VINCE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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weatherwatcher999
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It's interesting that vince has an eye, it actually looks pretty similar to a well-defined major hurricane, or typhoon (generally). I've never seen any tropical cyclone form that far east, and be a threat to europe(!).
Thankfully it looks like this cold front will absorb it, before anything bad happens to portugal... but it's pretty interesting that a tropical storm (almost mid-latitude) had an eye 
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danielw
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Josef, I'm unable to find any topography maps of Oporto.
The Douro River would be the greatest concern.
For two reasons. 1-The slight possibility of a tidal surge from the winds blowing ahead of Hurricane Vince. And 2-possible river flooding from excessive rainfall.
So areas near the Douro River and any streams that flow into the Douro river could be in danger of flooding, either from rainfall or from water being pushed ahead of the storm.
The location of the storm, it's motion toward Oporto, and the location of landfall would be the determining factors on which would be the greatest hazard.
http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/tempusfugit/marine/gmdss.htm
http://www.inag.pt/
http://www.eumetsat.int/idcplg?IdcService=SS_GET_PAGE&nodeId=444&l=en
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/~idds/images/out/20051009_230000_08_IR-108-2_1.jpg
Images are "Copyright 2005 EUMETSAT"~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 09 2005 08:36 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Another area been looking at with interest , Some of the PAO/DD2 Naval Models showing a Cat 1 or 2 just off the New England Coast 6 to 7 days out. These models are off limits to all but field grade rank and retired field rank. Cmdr or higher grade.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Encarta has some limited topography:
http://encarta.msn.com/map_701515761/Portugal.html
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: UK
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Try Google Earth Daniel. You can fly up the Douro river, admire the scenery and have a constant read-out of the topography.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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HanKFranK
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take on vince is that it peaked earlier today and will be downgraded to a t.s. at 11pm. the eye/convective ring has broken down in recent sat images. if it starts looking less tropical the will likely declassify it quickly, as it's way out in left field already. shear is impacting the system but not moving it yet, so it'll probably weaken a lot shortly. maybe come non-convective as it gets over cooler water. i'd expect it to get called tomorrow one way or another. ultimate track probably close to nw spain, but i don't think the remnant will landfall. should be quite a rain event, though.
the old subtropical depression threw a single convective burst for quite a time today. it may be distancing itself from the strong easterly shear jet around the upper low to its SE, so it may redevelop if it can throw some convection. will probably ignore it unless it makes a very convincing effort at developing convection. whether it redevelops or not, the low pressure should be off the mid atlantic coast as that large high builds in.. may stall and then jerk west or southwest thereafter.
94L is showing good convective action again but has troughed out at the surface. good diffluent/convergent atmosphere ahead, so it may add its contribution to the disturbed weather in the caribbean or serve as a focal mechanism for low pressure to develop.
other side of the upper low is an area of disturbed weather in the bahamas. there's a narrow anticyclone and modest low level convergence, so it may be a troublemaker if it persists.
as far as what old sailor said about a hurricane being off the east coast and potentially threatening the northeast coast this week... there are various models depicting a deep storm that looks tropical in origin moving up around there, sure enough. not much agreement on exactly how it forms, but the synoptic pattern would potentially support a storm getting up there. definitely stay tuned.
been watching the long-range pattern we should see later this month.. seeing some things that have me very interested, but want to see some more consistency before i get carried away with them... if you want a clue why i'm interested, check the 18Z runs around 8-10 days out.
HF 0222z10october
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bulletdodger
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I just cant believe what has happened this year alone with the tropics. I look at all the facts and it just awes me. I guess this is just another one to the record books.
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Nickolas Daniel Cook
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danielw
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I was just watching the Weather Channel and thinking the same thing. I had forgotten about the Christmas Day Snow in New Orleans.
Now we have a classified storm near the Azores and Portugal. At the same time Colorado is having a mid October, 2 day Winter Storm.
Hank, as usual...I think you are on to something there. The cooler temps are welcome here in the Coastal Areas...to some degree. There are still victims camping outdoors, along with Recovery Personnel from the Lower 48 States.
The last few nights of cool weather here, should cool off the GOM near-shore waters.
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josef
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Hello again,
Portuguese radio and tv´s give this information: The Vince is gone. No problems with de TS Vince because in next 12 hours he die.
It´s true?
In this moment in Oporto rain, and the temperature it´s 21ºC.
Thanks.
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josef
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Now, I take this from Meterra II site about Vince:
"PORTO, SAO VICENTE :
BECOMING CYCLONIC 8 TO 10 WITH VIOLENT GUSTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
TO 7 LATER. VIOLENT GUSTS. ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH".
Can someone define whts´s hapen in tuesday in Oporto city?
Thanks.
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Steve H1
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Think we'll be watching the western Caribbean next weekend. EC and some of the other globals have been showing things on and off, and this is a climatologically favored area. There is popcorn convection there this morning, but I think later this week it could get interesting. Old 94L is still sparking convection as well. We'll see. Wish we could get some drier air into Florida this week, but I don't see that happening anytime soon. Cheers!!
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