HanKFranK
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ssts... i use those with caution. seen enough atlantic storms over waters that supposedly couldn't support them maintain or even intensify in a baroclinic environment while over subpar waters. i believe the tropical cyclone threshold is really closer to 75-77F/24-25C. to get a mature, tropical hurricane in a marginal environment you probably do need the traditional 27C/80F, but there are enough exceptions in the subtropics early and late in the season that i don't really take it as a rule of thumb.
as far as those really warm SSTs pools go, and the ocean layer depth, and all that... those are nice to know to fine tune intensity forecasts... i won't give them more than that. there seems to be a bit of intensity lag between a storm's energy source and how quickly it intensifies. environmental conditions also seem to really set the intensity threshold on a storm more than it's potential intensity as dictated by SSTs.
just some observations... i'm sure tip and clark have more scientifically sound ways of explaining this stuff.
HF 0520z16october
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Oct 16 2005 05:23 AM)
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The Force 2005
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 16 2005 06:15 AM)
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Convergence
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Woah there, there might be a small chance of the storm making Cat 5, but there is no way in hell it's going to maintain that to a US landfall. Cuba, maybe, but land interaction and significantly lower heat potential in the Gulf are going to keep 's intensity down. Making claims like that before we even have a TS is at best speculation, anyway.
I expect we'll be getting a better picture when the models have a tighter system to work with... probably tomorrow night.
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The Force 2005
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 16 2005 06:03 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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sats back up.... some pretty cold cloud tops on the west side.... would expect the 5am to increase the winds to 35mph or even a TS status.... system is looking the best it has in the last 24hrs....... sadly.... its only going to grow now from here.... did some research today....on the water SST and depth.... i think that we may see another type system.... I think the is on to something with a major cane.... the conditions from what i can tell will be almost peferfect i think for a strong major cane in about 2-3days.... only way it wouldn't happen is for some dry air to disrupt the cane......one thing is for sure... it's not going anywhere anytime soon....
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_wv_loop.gif
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 16 2005 06:23 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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GFDL twenty-fo24l 2005101600
NOT LOOKING GOOD....... this model keeps getting worse...... Florida looks like it's next on the list for a cane.... notice at end of run... there is a low coming out of the central plains.....shooting up to the NE towards the ohio valley..... hmm....... seems to me there would be a front with this swinging south.... questions looks to be how strong and how far south..... weak... more north track.... stronger.....more NE track........ we will know more on about this i think late mon/tues...... backed off some again in strength.....
* i think though this run is a little to the right.... i did how ever like the UKM 00Z track....but maybe just a a bit slower*
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 16 2005 06:39 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
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Since it is not April I guess the name of the game is trick or treat. I am hoping that the models are being played with by some little imp and that the white little area in the Caribbean near Jamaica is a dust storm off of Africa. My mind is having a hard time with figuring out whether or not to be alert or to be bored.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Sneakbridge
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Quote:
My mind is having a hard time with figuring out whether or not to be alert or to be bored.
How about cautiously interested? =)
First things first though, it has to achieve TS status. The next 72 hrs will be interesting to watch.
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tornado00
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Just two days ago, we have our first cold front...more of a dry out front than a cold one, but in any terms an "illusion" of fall. Had a sense in my mind that hurricane season was now probably going to be anemic, and our chances of getting hit here is Central Florida pretty minute. Then..TD 24 pops up, and it looks like a familar face with the projected path, can you say anyone? Obviously were not out of the dog house yet, just hopefully it doesn't amount to anything really powerful, or better yet, just fizzle itself out of existance. Lets wait and see. 
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Derek Sutherland
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swimaway19
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Quote:
GFDL twenty-fo24l 2005101600
NOT LOOKING GOOD....... this model keeps getting worse...... Florida looks like it's next on the list for a cane.... notice at end of run... there is a low coming out of the central plains.....shooting up to the NE towards the ohio valley..... hmm....... seems to me there would be a front with this swinging south.... questions looks to be how strong and how far south..... weak... more north track.... stronger.....more NE track........ we will know more on about this i think late mon/tues...... backed off some again in strength.....
I just saw the 06Z run for the GDFL and it looked like the model sped it up a little, with the Tampa region receiving Cat 1 winds by Fri. Afternoon. This does not look good..... 
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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Storm Hunter
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yep! just saw the 06 ...looks like it has a thing for tampa.....
Read the discussion from stewart this morning.... was very good.....  we should have by 11am.....i am starting to think she will miss the tip of cuba when she starts to head that way.....anyway recon will be out there later...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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scottsvb
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Remember that the pattern isnt set yet for the next 36hrs until maybe mid-week, so the models may jump around still and infact most likely will. I will say I think landfall looks like Friday but wont know for sure until Tuesday evening. The Keys to Panama City looks like a good bet. Matters exactly on when the trough over the SW gets moving along combined with energy coming down into the Mississippi valley by mid-week. I expect the models will increase the speed of the system during the late week and move at modest pace 15-20mph by Friday. For the next 24 hrs though this should just drift w.
scottsvb
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scottsvb
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11am or 5pm? Probably when recon will go out there but the system over the last 6 hrs has gotten better organized with convection now almost completely over the center. Pressures are near 1002mb which would normally = 45mph but this is a large oval system so I would take off 5 mph for now and call it a possible 40mph. Sat obs also support 40mph at this time. Bouys dont show any winds over 25kt but there probably is near the deep convection at least.
Overall its very close to TS status.
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Storm Hunter
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no TS at 11am.... and she is not going anywhere anytime soon...
...DEPRESSION STALLED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 16 2005 02:38 PM)
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Thunderbird12
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Since the satellite presentation is ambiguous as far as whether this is a TS yet or not, I would assume they would wait until they get some confirmation from the next aircraft before upgrading it, unless there are some recent buoy reports to suggest stronger winds.
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Storm Hunter
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11am discussion
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS
MODEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT FAVORS THE LATER ON.
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND PERHAPS MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE
ADVISORY POSITION.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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scottsvb
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LOL just read what franklin says in his blog at the and read my previous 2 quick posts above and you almost get word for word again,.....shees,,,,,,,anyways we are generally word to word the same on whats going on or what might happen, just funny how we at times say almost the same things.
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
ssts... i use those with caution. seen enough atlantic storms over waters that supposedly couldn't support them maintain or even intensify in a baroclinic environment while over subpar waters. i believe the tropical cyclone threshold is really closer to 75-77F/24-25C. to get a mature, tropical hurricane in a marginal environment you probably do need the traditional 27C/80F, but there are enough exceptions in the subtropics early and late in the season that i don't really take it as a rule of thumb.
as far as those really warm SSTs pools go, and the ocean layer depth, and all that... those are nice to know to fine tune intensity forecasts... i won't give them more than that. there seems to be a bit of intensity lag between a storm's energy source and how quickly it intensifies. environmental conditions also seem to really set the intensity threshold on a storm more than it's potential intensity as dictated by SSTs.
just some observations... i'm sure tip and clark have more scientifically sound ways of explaining this stuff.
HF 0520z16october
Honestly, HankFrank... I was really more conceding with those others to tone it down some...
Personally, I have contentions all over the place with science's definitions and attempts to quantize boundaries in nature, not just for what temperatures can support this or that in Meteorology, but also, the storms that result them selves...
In essence, I agree with you in whole.
First of all...the sounding structure and ratios of wet and dry air between the ss and the U/A are equally as important in the physics of these beasts. That is why your assertion of mid 70's water has merit... Notwithstanding, storms of lore, such as the "Perfect Storm", this season's Vince, perhaps the event on the Brazil Coast last year in April, these are all quantized hurricane or hurrinace like events that didn't have waters temps of 80 to draw from... But, if you look at the sounding, you'll see that the remarkable similarities - both to one anothers anticedent conditions as well as comparable (by ratio) to the potential instability of a purer tropical sounding...
If all that wasn't enough, the "President's Day Blizzard" of 1979 had and eye, and a quasi-warm core!
Fact of the matter is, there are extremes on the spectrum of storm types that are wholey unique compared, however, the spectrum does not really have a black and white area where you either get one kind or the other.. .i.e, there are warm cores, hybrids, hybrid warm cores, hybrid cold cores and you could define these to Jupiters Great Red Spot and back and still not come up with enough definitions of the storms that can fall in between.
Certaintly a fascinating area of study and I won't bog this page down with Skew-T plots to diagram this stuff, either..
That being said.... Have you seen the 06Z ! Oh My Goodness... what do we have here... I tell yeah, the tries to do this every autumn in seems... We have now smartly evolved in the and moving parallel to the East Coast; why, because as we elucidated yesterday, the NAO supported notion of a deeper Ohio and Upper Ohio Valley trough (suddenly, that appears in the overnight runs...) seems to be appearing in the runs. This logically imparts S components along the East Coast. Anyway, the is taking a powerful piece of polar energy and plunging into a closing solution near the New York Bite water area of the N mid-Atlantic, in the area of said trough greatest amplification. This is eerie...because at that time, is careening N just off shore and appears to be captured by this polar energy, the two phasing, and bombing to 960mb or so in the Gulf of Maine! It's incredible! You think that you have a pure warm core feature being captured by a closing U/A low that almost has winter characteristics for have a core down to like 526dm heights!
But, I've seen this in the last couple of autumns frankly; yet to see this type of exotic phased result pan out. Notwithstanding, the typic huge margin for forecast errors this far out in time, particularly when throwing into the fray are quite large as an understatement... So, if nothing else, this more for, 'can you imagine if that happened'.
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Clark
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First off, I can't see every post on here all the time, so I don't always know if something has already been addressed. Having said that, there is absolutely no statistical discrepancy between the two products.
The HHC product is one based off of simple thermodynamical principles relating temperature to energy content. If you take the temperature over an oceanic depth (100m) and convert it to an energy using those equations, you can obtain the HHC product. Substantial values generally arise for SSTs >27C; non-zero values arise for SSTs >= 26C. I have the two plots up on my browser right now -- the only area where you may see a discrepancy is near the 26C isotherm on the edges, and that is solely because of the color scale used that has all HHC values from about 0-2 kcal/cm^2 as the same color. Those waters drop off in temperature fast below the surface and you'd expect the contributions to the HHC to be near-zero.
I'm not sure what you mean by there being no systems in the western or SW Atlantic this season to churn up the waters...Ophelia did a number on the Gulf Stream waters not all that long ago and the area near and just south/southwest of Bermuda all the way to Florida has seen many, many storms this season -- Tammy, , , Nate, the aforementioned Ophelia, Irene, Franklin, and Harvey. The near-shore waters -- between the shore and the Gulf stream -- are also going to be cooler than you might expect due to Ekman-related divergence of the waters away from the SE US coast.
Finally, that product is limited in that it doesn't really account for cases like Vince -- the -subtropical-tropical conversion cases over typically sub-standard SSTs/atmospheric conditions. The only one that really does is MPI, and that doesn't account for shear at all and is generally an overestimator of a storm's actual intensity by 20mb or greater. There is no single product and all of them should be used in concert with each other to balance out their weaknesses. However, for a case in the NW Caribbean such as future-Wilma, it is a pretty useful product to show the energy available to the system. Unlike in the Atlantic, these waters have not been tapped since July with and Emily.
Simply put, there is no perfect utility to use -- and as I and others have always said, they are just that, utilities. For a storm in the tropics, they work reasonably well. In the subtropics, not as well.
And trust me, I know the differences between all of the types of storms and what they can/cannot do...and I also know that model representation of tropical cyclones AND transition often borders on pathetic. Intensity forecasting is not an exact science.
As for the climate indices...color me unconvinced. They are more reflections of what is actually occurring as opposed to indicators of what is to come (other than those such as ). The NAO is derived from projecting surface pressures onto rotated EOFs across the northern hemisphere, with different modes from the EOFs proving to be more important than others during particular times of the year. The leading mode only accounts for about 20% of the variance in the entire data set. It's good to know, but once again -- just a utility, not a robust forecast product. And, ultimately, for transition, we're finding that patterns more consistant with the Arctic oscillation may be more important than the NAO...again though, it's still in the formative stages and only just a utility.
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weatherwatcher999
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This is a tough forecast...
It could go to the yucatan, or central cuba (i hope not, i'm going there in december).
I personally think that soon to be might take a , or hopefully not an /katrina/rita track. But the models have the sunshine state under the gun... but whatever the track is, i think this thing can easily become a major hurricane if it goes into the GOM, and it could still be one if it takes a track...
I think this one could even be a H4 if it passes through the straits of florida-three hurricanes (charley, , ) have underwent explosive deepening there, so it's still possible.
But nothing's certain with it being stationary-so this should be closely watched.
Edited by weatherwatcher999 (Sun Oct 16 2005 04:21 PM)
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