typhoon_tip
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First off, I can't see every post on here all the time, so I don't always know if something has already been addressed. Having said that, there is absolutely no statistical discrepancy between the two products.
The HHC product is one based off of simple thermodynamical principles relating temperature to energy content. If you take the temperature over an oceanic depth (100m) and convert it to an energy using those equations, you can obtain the HHC product. Substantial values generally arise for SSTs >27C; non-zero values arise for SSTs >= 26C. I have the two plots up on my browser right now -- the only area where you may see a discrepancy is near the 26C isotherm on the edges, and that is solely because of the color scale used that has all HHC values from about 0-2 kcal/cm^2 as the same color. Those waters drop off in temperature fast below the surface and you'd expect the contributions to the HHC to be near-zero.
I'm not sure what you mean by there being no systems in the western or SW Atlantic this season to churn up the waters...Ophelia did a number on the Gulf Stream waters not all that long ago and the area near and just south/southwest of Bermuda all the way to Florida has seen many, many storms this season -- Tammy, , , Nate, the aforementioned Ophelia, Irene, Franklin, and Harvey. The near-shore waters -- between the shore and the Gulf stream -- are also going to be cooler than you might expect due to Ekman-related divergence of the waters away from the SE US coast.
Finally, that product is limited in that it doesn't really account for cases like Vince -- the -subtropical-tropical conversion cases over typically sub-standard SSTs/atmospheric conditions. The only one that really does is MPI, and that doesn't account for shear at all and is generally an overestimator of a storm's actual intensity by 20mb or greater. There is no single product and all of them should be used in concert with each other to balance out their weaknesses. However, for a case in the NW Caribbean such as future-Wilma, it is a pretty useful product to show the energy available to the system. Unlike in the Atlantic, these waters have not been tapped since July with and Emily.
Simply put, there is no perfect utility to use -- and as I and others have always said, they are just that, utilities. For a storm in the tropics, they work reasonably well. In the subtropics, not as well.
And trust me, I know the differences between all of the types of storms and what they can/cannot do...and I also know that model representation of tropical cyclones AND transition often borders on pathetic. Intensity forecasting is not an exact science.
As for the climate indices...color me unconvinced. They are more reflections of what is actually occurring as opposed to indicators of what is to come (other than those such as ). The NAO is derived from projecting surface pressures onto rotated EOFs across the northern hemisphere, with different modes from the EOFs proving to be more important than others during particular times of the year. The leading mode only accounts for about 20% of the variance in the entire data set. It's good to know, but once again -- just a utility, not a robust forecast product. And, ultimately, for transition, we're finding that patterns more consistant with the Arctic oscillation may be more important than the NAO...again though, it's still in the formative stages and only just a utility.
Hi Clark... None of what you said is incorrect.. It's all reasonable to me... Just 4 small points:
First, what I was just touching on with HankFrank is that these numbers are less important as better understanding about the spectra of possible storms is becoming better understood. (I sense we are in agreement here). Events such as Vince, Brazil last April, maybe the Perfect Storm and so forth, they all demonstrate that 26C vs. 27C are not limitations; perhaps looked on with too much rigidity sometimes? Those plots in question, they do have usefulness - that's not even open to debate for obvious reason. It is, however, important to point out that 0 energy is indeed a bit of a misnomer; that is, when we acknowledge the former reasoning. I would just like to add, unless the ocean is frozen over with ice there is always potential energy; it's really a matter of the vertical profile of your troposphere that dictates whether it is usable energy or not... It just so happens that planetary mean tropospheric values favor the end of the spectrum over 80F. It is of course obvious that 90% of systems need the warmer SST, indeed. Having said all that, please elaborate on "The only one that really does is MPI"... I've never heard of such a tool - sounds fascinating.. Is there an availability to the public?
Secondly, the area of the Atlantic that I was referring to when the discussion got under way (....ah, late last night when I was probably to tired to be lucid about the subject matter...my apologies) was the region bounded by 25N and 33N, and between 60W/75W. That area in particular looked at first glance to be a dubiously characterized based on the two urls when in comparison. But, if you go back across the logs I did concede once I saw a decent enough presentation. I agree that Ophelia traversed the area of the Gulf Stream on the western fringe of said area, but, that is not necessarily "in" the said area. Also, the Gulf Stream (as you know) is not a stationary entity... Check this, but I think it moves along at 3kts average? Anyway, that being the case, a month at 3kts, combined with last weeks full latitude southerly flow over that area (as also evidenced by ir anyway) suggests that any processing by Ophelia is pretty much negligible and/or indistinguishable at this time. You are correct that a couple of predators really stalked Florida from the east, but they originated in an area beneath 27 or so N, by more than 65W, making them irrelevant to said bounded area above. As far as , and on and on...Sure, I have no issue with what they did to any SST's outside the area in question. Though it is too late in the season to expect this, if a system developed and moved N of the Islands and stayed 200naut miles N of Puerto Rico, and curved N near 72W by 25N, it would in fact be traversing an area that has not been processed, or has not been processed in so long that it wouldn't matter... (stated just as a facsimile). Now, that does not discount the possibility that the warm water that is evidenced there may be shallow - I'm fine with integrating for depth.
Thirdly, NAO is defined as a climate index, not doubt...However, it is factually evident that a negative NAO is strongly statistically correlated to a negative anomaly in the Ohio Valley area... And, the NAO has a very short none-linear periodicity that flips phases sometimes weekly in more chaotic times; and, sometimes these changes are almost immediately impacting the westerlies above 30N. The only reason that point was brought up is because (as you know) there is at least "hints" in a lot of the runs that (should she be named) may get hung up in one such trough... The is particularly evident in the 06Z run of the (if you haven't already seen)... There's a lot at stake with that. We have a water -logged New England area that is, for lack of better words...categorically opposed to the notion of a strong tropical or hybrid transitioning system careening at them from the S... Also, obviously the stakes are high in the upper Gulf Coastal region... Point being, all this vulnerability is exposing when the NAO is negative and in tandem, the models just happen to have a teleconnected mid-latitude trough willing to do the steering.
Lastly, I hope no one's knowledge was ever in question... If you ever felt as though that was being questioned, feel free to disregard any of those comments, particularly by me, because I try to go out of my way to consider everyone's point of view.
Can't wait to see what the 12Z runs do with this thing...
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scottsvb
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The runs will change from each one, especially out more then 2-3days. When it gets within 72hrs of landfall, then we will really need to locate a general area where it might impact but still that can even change.
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Will this season ever end? I was really beginning to feel as if we were able to signal the "all clear". YIKES!!!
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MissBecky
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Thanks to all the mets on here... I am trying to understand the way the weaknesses in the ridge will affect TD24's ultimate track. For obvious reasons, comparisons to are not exactly comforting right now!
Anyway, I understand that the ultimate effect will be to pull the storm northward, but is there anything out there to indicate whether it would go due north toward the Florida panhandle, northeast toward the Florida coast, or northwest, more toward the battered Gulf Coast states? For instance, with it was known days in advance that there would be an eventual northeasterly component to the storm's movement. Is this known yet for TD24? Or is it simply too soon to say? Thanks.
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Old Sailor
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You just asked the $64,000.00 questions as to where she will go, It still to soon to say looking at a landfall 7 or 8 days maybe, think everybody on south coast,west coast, panhandle needs to watch this one..
Dave
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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It is interesting that the , while wavering on how exactly it gets there....is fairly persistent on the upper-interior Gulf Coast side of Florida. Also, the has been fairly consistent with a crossing central Cuba and then parelleling the East Coast before taking the right turn into the grave yard. As usual, the best hope is:
(model compromise+special insight)/2
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Pete,
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How accurate have the and the been this year with early forecasting? Sure don't like what they have to say 
Thanks
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Think the one thing that is a given here is that a good part of the FL peninsular will be in a storm watch eventually unless further down the road the Canadian and the group come together more...
This time of year when a storm is SW of Florida you have to worry.
More curious what everyone here thinks on timing issue.
Will she sit there a long time or when will she begin moving north?
Thanks for sharing your thoughts
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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bobbutts
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Since last night's 2100z forecast and today's 1500z the have snuck the storm a bit farther west and stronger in the long term forecast. Still too early to say confidently, but it's starting to look like here in Port Charlotte we'll be watching another storm that is forecast to parallel the coast west of us hoping that it doesn't curve ne. As with , on this course even a small change, in heading would mean a big change in landfall point.
initial 15/2100z 17.6n 78.8w 25 kt
12hr VT 16/0600z 17.5n 79.5w 35 kt
24hr VT 16/1800z 17.5n 80.0w 45 kt
36hr VT 17/0600z 17.5n 80.5w 60 kt
48hr VT 17/1800z 17.5n 81.0w 70 kt
72hr VT 18/1800z 17.5n 82.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 19/1800z 18.0n 82.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 20/1800z 19.5n 83.0w 85 kt
INITIAL 16/1500Z 17.1N 79.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 17.2N 80.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 17.3N 80.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 17.7N 81.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 20.5N 84.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT
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LoisCane
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A storm that goes through the Yucatan will go over more water, warm water.. various currents and get into the Gulf stronger.
A storm that goes NNW or N through Cuba will obviously take longer to reform.
Projected strength goes hand in hand here with path.
Meanwhile..she is still stationary officially.
thanks for the numbers
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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GuppieGrouper
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I have noticed that every time Florida is named early on by the models to be effected, the conditions seem to change and the direction seems to change. (That has been a really good thing this year). But, as the year gets later, the models do not seem to do as well and there are surprises. Kate in the 1980's is an example of a surprise. She hit the panhandle and was still gusting 90mph winds or greater when she was 50 miles in land. (car miles). It might not be 50 miles from the shoreline to Tallahassee,.The best thing is to have your supplies topped off. If you are going to need gasoline this week get it now before there is an official storm, if your family is like mine, they have already gotten into the good stuff you bought and now you will be left with the stuff that you would not eat unless desparate. So get a little more of the good stuff that you can enjoy while watching the news reports on the blizzards up north. Learn some of the lessons of and . The government, no matter how good its intentions are, is not capable of personally rescuing you from a mobile home that is not tied down, that is sitting on a water front property next to a river or a bayou. If you paid some one a really good deal on a roof from last years storms, rethink how much you paid compared to the going rate around you.Is it still a good deal? For Goodness sake don't get caught up in the last minute buying frenzy. Doing something helps relieve anxiety. Standing in a line waiting for 2 hours to buy food that you don't even like is a waste of time. If the storm gets closer start eating the stuff in the freezer first. While it is fresh and you have electricity. ITs cool enough to enjoy those steaks, chops, or other meats that will spoil if the freezer goes off for long. Insect repellent and flash light batteries are a very important thing. Even if we do not get a storm here in Florida, some one during the excitment of the chase, could run into a pole that has your neighborhoods transformer on it. The time is still long even if there is not a storm. One last suggestion, everyone stand on the shore or from their homes and puff really hard, maybe the storm will stall in the middle of the Gulf and Die.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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HanKFranK
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the evolving synoptic pattern favors a hurricane strike on the west coast of florida at the end of next week, is what everything boils down to right now. a semblance of the subtropical ridge should build in and strengthen to the east, while the heights fall to the northwest and north by later in the week... this general pattern should produce a recurvature over western cuba and the florida peninsula. i'm not buying into western solutions that take it over the yucatan or perhaps to the panhandle for now as they imply a more robust ridge and either a very small or sharp, lagging ridge. the eastern solution would be best for everybody but it doesn't see any ridge, which doesn't look right for now.
based on the normal phenology of such storms over warm water/upper anticyclonic circulation i'd expect to get named and slowly spin up until later tomorrow or tuesday, then start deepening like crazy as the inner core becomes well-defined. around wednesday/thursday the storm should bottom out.. probably as a category 4 or so. as it begins to move northward, interacts with cuba, and crosses over the slightly less warm waters of the gulf, and begins to feel the westerlies.. i'd expect it to weaken to a category 2 or 3 level storm. if i had to put money that's where it would be. as far as impact location the peninsula ought to consider themselves threatened, but especially the southwest and west-central coasts... the keys to cedar key region more or less. the tampa bay area, sarasota, fort myers, and the i-4 corridor need to worry about this one.
depending on how sharp the trough is and how robust the ridge to the east is... the storm may stay close enough to the east coast to continue creating troubles. baroclinic energy sources can keep a system ahead of one of these mid-latitude troughs quite strong... from the outer banks to new england there may be a secondary impact zone if the storm is to try phasing in to the westerlies as tip mentioned. aside from what florida would have to deal with, this would be the worst case scenario... a hurricane following up the flooding already ongoing in the northeast would likely cause the worst flooding new england has seen in decades.
i'll just toss out that there's a weak low in a sheared environment with that former invest in the eastern atlantic near 20/35 right now.. which may find itself under better upper air conditions in another couple of days. with strongly positive and zonal ridging in the atlantic even an unlikely system like that would need to be watched for some development potential.
the fact that positive is here favoring zonal ridging, and negative NAO is here favoring blocking and troughiness in the eastern u.s... in tandem, suggests that the storm will be near the dividing line of the potential spheres of influence of either teleconnection. it'll be interesting to see whether the zonal ridging tendency of + or the phasing/amplified tendency of NAO- wins out with this storm.
HF 1747z16october
worth noting that a typhoon is recurving past japan and should pass by in 3-4 days. that would favor a trough in the east roughly 6-7 days later... which is beyond the timeframe that should be threatening... i guess that's modestly encouraging because a few troughs have bypassed typhoon kirogi south of japan, letting it wiggle around for days. maybe will buzz by florida and leave the rest of the coast alone. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Oct 16 2005 06:19 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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well recon didn't make it in time for 2pm.... but they are close:
(just SE of the cayman islands)
URNT11 KNHC 161735
97779 17304 10191 82210 61000 04022 57768 /8038
RMK AF309 0224A CYCLONE OB 09
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 16 2005 05:49 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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URNT11 KNHC 161800
97779 17524 10185 80700 02100 05013 26231 /0005
40515
RMK AF309 0224A CYCLONE OB 10
pressure 1005mb?
they are very close to center..... but based on latest sat....not sure there is a well defined inner core yet... there is only a small set of storms over the center...... appears that dry air is some how keeping her strained...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 16 2005 06:11 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
Think the one thing that is a given here is that a good part of the FL peninsular will be in a storm watch eventually unless further down the road the Canadian and the group come together more...
This time of year when a storm is SW of Florida you have to worry.
More curious what everyone here thinks on timing issue.
Will she sit there a long time or when will she begin moving north?
Thanks for sharing your thoughts
You are definitely right that a system sitting in the Western Carribean Sea in mid October should not sit well with Floridians... The climatologically derived regions for hurricane frequency shows the area, together with the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as well as the area off the SE U.S. Coast have the greatest numbers of occurrences. In addition, most tracks after in situ generation tend to be N, NNE and NEwards. This unfortunately places Florida in a climate favored location to be affected.
The trouble with climate is its an accumulation of past behavior... It doesn't ultimately say anything about what the pattern at hand will command. In this case, however, there are governing parameters in the synoptics that connote a fairly climate-friendly behaved system; which is to say, Floridians have much to be concerned about. All that means is a track close to western Cuba and then NNE toward the West Coat of Florida is a preferred solution when balancing synoptic prediction of major influences to track guidance, at this time. Not absolute - never a certainty, just favored. This will also be suggest below by model depiction.
As far as timing goes... The trick is, does the amplification in the Nation's Heartland penetrate deeply enough in latitude to induce a southerly steering flow? That will be established if said trough incurs upon and then erodes the ridge over the N Gulf. That would tend to initiate a NW motion to ....and then, the subsequent thinking that a NW motion would have to take on N, then NNE becomes entirely intuitive. The devil's in the details as my mentor always used to say.. It is still possible, though seemingly less likely, that the trough to the N never fully amplifies and leave after only tugging her N - then all bets would be off.
I am a bit uneasy about the global models handling the expected trough in the Heartland, days 5-7. Take the difference between the 06Z and the 12Z for example: In the former run, a large positive height anomaly evolves near the Davis Straight area (this being relevant because having a positive height departure there tends to signal troughing in the contiguous eastern U.S.), and in concert a powerhouse U/A impulse slices into the northern Ohio Valley and cuts off... This definitely has enough amplitude to grab hold of a sling her up the East Coast (having crossed Florida), even impacting areas of Eastern New England. Where as, this day's 12Z run is much, much less amplified with the westerlies in the Ohio Valley, and this results a much weaker less influential steering field along the East Coast. These types of large scale mass discontinuities across single model runs do not lend much confidence.
The average of the models I have seen,against my personal intuition, suggests "potentially" impacting in western Florida, 6 days out? The deciding factor pulling me this direction would be the interesting agreement in timing (and almost placement) that the has with the .. Thereafter, it will remain to be seen how is lifted in latitude, whether N component or more E component; that will come down, again, to how amplified the trough slated to settle into 80-ishW lon really becomes. But...in the end the bottom line is that it is too early to be precise with much credibility. ho-hum, how would a crystal ball help us now?
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weatherwatcher999
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
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Well, she looks like a teardrop in the satellite images when you click on the track of 24. Maybe tropical depression 24 is depressed 
I'd say once the pressure gets down to under 1000 MB, we'll have , and since we still have a month and a half of the season left, alpha is waiting to start it's engine.
Wilma looks like it'll be our october major hurricane, number 13 if i'm not mistaken.
I have a question-What year on record had the most hurricanes???
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
.... appears that dry air is some how keeping her strained...
Yes and so it's going to take a little longer to get going. mentioned the dry air in the 5am disc. The lower-level circulation is well-developed, and we have seen these to be tenacious. And the area of circulation has grown considerably in the last 24 hours; I am beginning to think when these storms can't intensify, the energy goes to increase their size. Also the outflow continues to be very strong. So to my eyes this TD continues to look very good, even with the inroads the dry air has made to the NW side. So even if dry air keeps development on a leash, she won't fall apart.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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damejune2
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The models confuse me. I ran all the models and the only one that takes #24 close to Florida is the . The Canadian model takes the storm through Cuba and then NE through the Bahamas. takes it near the Yucatan. doesn't do much with it and the model appears to be having problems. For some reason the only i can run is sea surface pressure. All the other options don't work; something to do with Java.
Edit - The UKMET takes the storm through the Yucatan Peninsula and then looks to take a NE turn after that....weird stuff.
Edit 2 - takes it through the Yucatan and then north towards LA/MS.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Sun Oct 16 2005 06:53 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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URNT12 KNHC 161834
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/18:19:40Z
B. 17 deg 36 min N
079 deg 18 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 14 kt
E. 290 deg 090 nm
F. 055 deg 014 kt
G. 305 deg 094 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C/ 301 m
J. 24 C/ 366 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF309 0224A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 14 KT NW QUAD 14:58:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
SCF CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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The models have swung left (west) since this morning. They are probably having a little difficulty since TD24 isn't moving much right now. Wait a day or so. They will have a better handle on things then. IMHO
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