Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
newest recon indicates a ragged eyewall has formed:
October 17, 2005 21:32:50 Zulu
L. OPEN W
M. E05/18/8
RAGGED EYE WALL
15.77° N 79.88°
winds still aren't very high... but it's getting it's act together.
At least the pressure has not plummeted - yet anyway. Looking at the latest IR loop, it's not moving east of due south anymore, either. In fact, it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast 
 . In fact, the developing eye (which you can't see on IR) appears midway between the 5pm ET position and the first forecast track position.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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18z has a simular path on the with the 12Z run,,just alittle more E near the western tip of Cuba then across florida near Naples or south of Naples to Broward County then Freeport....... Again this model will change..Main models runs will be 0z weds runs with NOAA data on them and also by Tues night we can see more if she is already moving NW or just meandering off Honduras.
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Goosus
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Boise ID
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Looking at the water vapor loop, there is a huge area of dry air directly to 's north and west.
This hasn't been discussed much here, but I'm assuming the effect of all this dry air is to retard the rapid deepening that everyone keeps predicting.
If and as the storm makes it's predicted turn north, won't it run straight into this dry air mass? Won't that choke further intensification? I can't imagine a hurricane, no matter how strong, can plunge into a dry area of ocean and keep it's intensity, let alone strengthen.
Any thoughts? Is this entire mass of dry air supposed to be gone in a few days?
Water Vapor Loop- North America
Edited by Goosus (Mon Oct 17 2005 07:10 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
If and as the storm makes it's predicted turn north, won't it run straight into this dry air mass? Won't that choke further intensification? I can't imagine a hurricane, no matter how strong, can plunge into a dry area of ocean and keep it's intensity, let alone strengthen.
Any thoughts? Is this entire mass of dry air supposed to be gone in a few days?
If turns northward (which is still not certain) it will be in response to a trough of low pressure coming down from the plains into the Gulf... that trough won't have dry air in it, but it will have shear, so the net effect will be to retard development in the eastern GOM, which is what is forecast.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Pete,
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Thanks for the info!
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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From HPC
"ENOUGH OF A TROUGH
EXISTS IN THE OH VLY/EAST FROM DAY 5 /SAT AM/ ONWARD TO ALLOW
WILMA RECURVE ALONG A CLIMO TRACK ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. MOST OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LANDFALL BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND
TAMPA...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR TIMING THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH VARIOUS MODELS ONE DAY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE PROGGED
TIME OF LANDFALL. THE LONGER THE SYS TAKES TO ENTER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE FARTHER SOUTH THE POINT OF LANDFALL COULD BE IN THE
FL PENINSULA."
Happy B-day to HF 
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: UK
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Quote:
[it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast
Well, getting it right once in 48hrs is not bad I suppose..
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
[it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast
Well, getting it right once in 48hrs is not bad I suppose..
Maybe so. Whether it continues to turn toward the WNW, NW, and ultimately North is another question. The 2315z IR image appears to be misaligned on the floater, or else the system jumped south and significantly west in 30 minutes, which I find hard to believe. SSD floater has not updated with 2315z image yet.
Edit: The new computer model runs are up at WU it appears. BAMM, , and all show landfall along the west coast of the peninsula, ranging from Tampa to Key West.
Of note: WALA Fox 10 (Mobile) weather guy said of something like "it's not in our forecast". That's true right now, but it's very disconcerting for a meteorologist to be sounding the "all clear" this early, when lots of things could change.
Edit 2: SSD has now updated with 2315z images and they show no further southward movement, so 's image is just misaligned apparently.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Oct 17 2005 07:42 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Quote:
Quote:
newest recon indicates a ragged eyewall has formed:
October 17, 2005 21:32:50 Zulu
L. OPEN W
M. E05/18/8
RAGGED EYE WALL
15.77° N 79.88°
winds still aren't very high... but it's getting it's act together.
At least the pressure has not plummeted - yet anyway. Looking at the latest IR loop, it's not moving east of due south anymore, either. In fact, it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast
. In fact, the developing eye (which you can't see on IR) appears midway between the 5pm ET position and the first forecast track position.
What's interesting here is that her pressure was 989mb at the 5pm, considerably large drop for day period... They do mention that the environmental pressure is considerably lower than normal, but when the recon says ragged eyewall, almost makes one wonder if the recon did not sample the best part of the circulation... In other words, missed the wind maxim?
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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
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I know it is still extremely early to ask this, but I will anyway. IF comes to visit the central/south west coast of Florida, what is our best guess as to the intensity? I am hearing cat 2 locally.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
At least the pressure has not plummeted - yet anyway. Looking at the latest IR loop, it's not moving east of due south anymore, either. In fact, it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast
. In fact, the developing eye (which you can't see on IR) appears midway between the 5pm ET position and the first forecast track position.
What's interesting here is that her pressure was 989mb at the 5pm, considerably large drop for day period... They do mention that the environmental pressure is considerably lower than normal, but when the recon says ragged eyewall, almost makes one wonder if the recon did not sample the best part of the circulation... In other words, missed the wind maxim?
Possible. The 8pm intermediate advisory maintained the pressure as 989 (estimated!) and the winds as 50mph, though. Perhaps the airplane never measured the wind maxim, or perhaps the winds have still not caught up to the pressure. The net movement from 5pm to 8pm was also due south according to the advisories (Current movement is called stationary), which makes no sense looking at the IR loop which shows due west movement, however. Maybe the LLC is not moving but the is moving, which means it is reorganizing internally? Or maybe I'm blind and don't know west from south.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: UK
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17/2000edt : stationary where she was last period
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Hugh, can you answer maddog's question...I gotta run
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I know it is still extremely early to ask this, but I will anyway. IF comes to visit the central/south west coast of Florida, what is our best guess as to the intensity? I am hearing cat 2 locally.
I'm NOT a met, so don't hold me to this, but... best guess.... Cat 2, probably on the order of 100mph. If the storm turns NE, it will be because of the trough, which will bring shear with it, so it's likely that will be on the downswing as it makes landfall on the peninsula.... IF it makes landfall on the peninsula.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ben Wallace
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Zephyrhills, FL
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I have a question that is kind of off topic how come the trough that steared did not weakened it but instead rapidly intenified where was the shear with that ?
I do think will reach peak intensity in the Carribean and than weaken as it moves into the Gulf because of shear and slightly cooler waters in the Gulf.
Edited by Ben Wallace (Mon Oct 17 2005 08:40 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Right now it just matters on how much shear is in for once it gets into the gulf,, the shear that will push from W-E will drive her NE or even ENE..... I will say 1 thing, she will pick up speed prior to landfall but when is landfall is the best question cause shes not moving much yet,,,right now it looks like Sunday morning but could be as early as Saturday morning if she begins to move NW on Tuesday. All in all its the development of the system over the plains during the mid week period and how fast the Jet stream pushes this east to pick up and drive her NE.
Intensity should bring her up to near a Cat 4 by Thurs Night but then weaken some due to shear and also slightly cooler waters (although still 81-83dg) later Friday into Saturday. Landfall in Florida could be from a strong cat 1 to a weak ( although how can anyone really say weak) Cat 3. Now even though that water temp still supports a Hurricane, its less then the ocean heat content of the NW carribean near 84-87dg still.
Anyways Im inline pretty much still with the and 18Z run but more then 3 days out is speculation of course.
Edited by scottsvb (Mon Oct 17 2005 08:41 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Sure is looking due west to me
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
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With the models currently coming into agreement with each other, how much difference will the data from the NOAA Jet make, if any?
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cngodles
Registered User
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Loc: PA
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Ok, I was looking at the 1933 Map. I don't see any storms in the middle of the Atlantic. Could they possibly have seen or counted any storms that are comparable to Vince? I'm thinking they had way more than they counted. I can't imagine them having the amount of data we have today.
Thoughts? Comments?
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